Bitcoin Thread

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phly said:
The only trading I do is leveraged trading. You can use bitfinex which has very cool charts but the majority of folks are using bitmex. You can lose all your cash in a blink of an eye due to volatility especially if you use high margin such as 100x. However for some of us, its the only way we know how to live. Allow me to shamelessly plug in my refferal link for those that need to sign up on Bitmex. You get a reduction in trading fees for like 6 months last I checked.

Ref Link: https://www.bitmex.com/register/ElJUeh

If any other question you can shoot and i'll try assist to the best of my knowledge. Its quite easy once you get the hang of it. Issue is is at very volatile times the system hangs and you cannot open or close a position. However its the to go to exchange for leverage and margin trading
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Leverage trading is pretty good if you are a sensible trader who have a good understanding of market conditions and not over leverage yourself into hell i rarely do anything more than 5x leverage depending on risk, the higher the calculated risk the lower the leverage in my case. Also I generally only leverage on short positions.
 
Time to extend the next entry point to 25-26th November but the movement looks weak as limp monkey so I dont have much faith in that. The only winners are those who got out of the market at the correct time and sitting and waiting.

25_26.png
 
phly said:
Unfortunately the test net is not a true reflection of live market conditions. Good for playing around yes but not much more.
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Yeah, it's also difficult to get a proper feel for it without real money on the line. No amount of theory and tools prepares you for how risk affects emotions. People often say they're 'technical traders', and while I get the meaning, so much of trading is keeping your emotions in check and playing the technical strategy that makes the most sense.

Jesse Livermore - 1920's ish

“I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business, because I find that the average speculator has arrayed against him his own nature. The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation…”

“The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day – and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope – to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little.”

“And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out-too soon.”

“Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does.”

A few more quotes from him...
https://jesse-livermore.com/beating-the-market.html
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saor said:
“And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out-too soon.”
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I don't really agree with this quote. I think it makes more sense to get out of a profit taking market too early rather than getting out of a losing market too late.

That quote by Jesse Livermore reads well but is just too vague. I find that most of these "wiseman" quotes tend to vague and lacking actual substance on what to actually do rather than just being wise words.
 
Thanks, yeah I'll do some simulations first.

Looking at it, I'll most likely trade small amounts with high leverage, take profit at specific prices, and not use a stop loss. Since once you go with high leverage and use a stop loss, the stop loss needs to be very close to the order or most of the capital will be gone when it's hit. So it doesn't make sense to use a stop loss with high leverage.
 
John Tempus said:
That quote by Jesse Livermore reads well but is just too vague. I find that most of these "wiseman" quotes tend to vague and lacking actual substance on what to actually do rather than just being wise words.
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Yeah that maybe a bad quote of his. Was trying to find a certain one and gave up.

What I found interesting from this book was the dude was doing his thing in the 1900's (1900 - 1934 ish) and so much of how the markets worked then and how people responded to it sounds very similar to how we talk about markets in 2018.
 
saor said:
Yeah that maybe a bad quote of his. Was trying to find a certain one and gave up.

What I found interesting from this book was the dude was doing his thing in the 1900's (1900 - 1934 ish) and so much of how the markets worked then and how people responded to it sounds very similar to how we talk about markets in 2018.
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Yup, the incestuous behaviour of markets have not changed that much. :P
 
SaiyanZ said:
Thanks, yeah I'll do some simulations first.

Looking at it, I'll most likely trade small amounts with high leverage, take profit at specific prices, and not use a stop loss. Since once you go with high leverage and use a stop loss, the stop loss needs to be very close to the order or most of the capital will be gone when it's hit. So it doesn't make sense to use a stop loss with high leverage.
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I assume you are familiar with leverage but in case its a new area for you think of leverage in form of risk management. The riskier you think a position is, the lower leverage you should take on it.

A very broad rule of thumb is to use 5-10x for neutral positions where you really dont feel good or bad about potential risk. Scale up to 10-20x leverage the lower risk you associate with the position and then scale from 20x or even higher the lower risk you associate with the positions up to 100x leverage if you are claire voyant or straight up want to gamble. If you want to establish a form of risk relationship you could look at either weekly or full historical volatility of certain position, the more volatile the riskier and thus use the lower levels of leverage even down to 2x if its such a volatile position you want to actually have some chance of closing the position with some sort of stop loss.

Btw for very high leverage in your example dont use stop-loss , use trailing-stop-loss in both directions.
 
So I've played around with the test account. One question. Is there a way to quickly trade your full balance? i.e. Set the "cost" = "available balance" without having to find the exact USD quantity that corresponds to it.

bitmex1.png


eg. On Luno you can click on your available balance (BTC or ZAR), which will then allow you to place an order for the full amount without typing it in.
 
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And up 32% BTC since 14th. Now where are those

 
saor said:
Yeah, it's also difficult to get a proper feel for it without real money on the line. No amount of theory and tools prepares you for how risk affects emotions. People often say they're 'technical traders', and while I get the meaning, so much of trading is keeping your emotions in check and playing the technical strategy that makes the most sense.
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You do realize you are likely playing against algorithms set up by true whales?
 
Bitcoin is like Banksy. It's designed as a digital currency as a project to find a way to give people access to money who doesnt have.

Banksy is there to promote free speech.

amazingly both are now being abused for profit reasons. no matter how good a thing you make, other idiots like Luno etc, will try and make a profit on something thats actually meant to be free.

Perhaps it's time to pull the final few plugs on the coins.
 
Corelli said:
Bitcoin is like Banksy. It's designed as a digital currency as a project to find a way to give people access to money who doesnt have.

Banksy is there to promote free speech.

amazingly both are now being abused for profit reasons. no matter how good a thing you make, other idiots like Luno etc, will try and make a profit on something thats actually meant to be free.

Perhaps it's time to pull the final few plugs on the coins.
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Its a catch22 situation. BTC would still probably be valued sub $1 if not for profit driven outcome. Unlikely to have the price rise as it did without profit motive going along with it. BTC was never invented to just give people money who needs it ? Not sure how you got to that conclusion. BTC at its purest is a product intended to act as frictionless permissionless money to be able to move money from 1 person in the world to another without having to ask some third party if it is ok.

PS. Rule No1 in life, nothing produced by humans end up being free. The only thing free in life is breathing, every other thing that you produce cost at minimum time and what you consume cost at minimum time+money.
 
Corelli said:
Bitcoin is like Banksy. It's designed as a digital currency as a project to find a way to give people access to money who doesnt have.

Banksy is there to promote free speech.

amazingly both are now being abused for profit reasons. no matter how good a thing you make, other idiots like Luno etc, will try and make a profit on something thats actually meant to be free.

Perhaps it's time to pull the final few plugs on the coins.
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The issue is that if you don't want something to be "abused" you shouldn't provide any incentive for doing so. Tether for instance. Bitcoin was designed for hyperdeflation which initially caused us to think it will crash. Seems the opposite is happening so it benefits the "wrong" people causing it to eventually just fizzle out. Don't want that there's always something like Doge which at the same time is also not very successful.
 
Swa said:
The issue is that if you don't want something to be "abused" you shouldn't provide any incentive for doing so. Tether for instance. Bitcoin was designed for hyperdeflation which initially caused us to think it will crash. Seems the opposite is happening so it benefits the "wrong" people causing it to eventually just fizzle out. Don't want that there's always something like Doge which at the same time is also not very successful.
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Uhm no, BTC longterm is deflationary but far from hyper deflationary. In the short term BTC is inflationary until the 21million cap is reached. Here is the inflation year by year rate. The best part is that we have a set inflation rate that is going to be unaltered until mining cap is reached sometime in 2140(assuming some crazy dev dont introduce some crazy plan to increase the current hardcap).

Year #bitcoins Inflation per annum
2009 1,624,250 -
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2010 5,020,250 209.1%
2011 8,001,400 59.4%
2012 10,733,825 34.1%
2013 12,199,725 13.7%
2014 13,671,200 12.1%
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2015 15,029,525 9.9%
2016 16,075,400 7.0%
2017 16,750,400 4.2% (estimate)
2018 17,425,400 4.0% (estimate)
2019 18,100,400 3.9% (estimate)
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2020 18,575,200 2.6% (estimate, halvening)
2021 18,912,700 1.8% (estimate)
2022 19,250,200 1.8% (estimate)
2023 19,587,700 1.8% (estimate)
2024 19,806,350 1.1% (estimate, halvening)
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2025 19,975,100 0.9% (estimate)
2026 20,143,850 0.8% (estimate)
2026 20,312,600 0.8% (estimate)



Maybe if someone bring out a BTC clone that reduce the max coin cap after each x blocks cycle, rather than halving it would year on year be deflationary from the start and much faster reach the remaining hardcap.
 
Ummm from $1 to $20k in a few years is definitely hyperdeflation. Is was a design aspect.
 
Swa said:
Ummm from $1 to $20k in a few years is definitely hyperdeflation. Is was a design aspect.
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No clue at all what point you tried to make with that sentence, it literally makes no sense.

Sir you dont understand what deflation/inflation even means. Price movement does not determine inflation or deflation. Inflation/deflation is determined by the increase of money supply or decrease of money supply. Fiat is inherently inflationary without any cap or any predetermined inflation rate. You know that fancy thing that happens year after year to fiat in every country that they call inflation rates ? Well that inflation rate means how much more money will be printed by the Reserve banks for the new year ie. Inflating the fiat circulation money supply.

Think out loud for yourself about the point you tried to make $1 to $20k. If it had any merit then the price should be $40k or $100k or whatever at this point or do you suggest that we magically went into hyperinflation mode causing the market to crash ? :ROFL:

Let me assist you.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
 
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