Bitcoin Thread

[John Tempus]

Time reveals all things. I got swallowed shorting by that wicked candle the other day then got run over 2nd time round due to revenge trading. Now I am just nursing my wounds watching from the sidelines waiting to see what happens next.

It already started to take shape, runup here we come. All indications point to a good day, I suspect we might even cross $200million long over short.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Looks like it's trying to make another push. I think it's too soon and needs a cooldown period so I'm opening up small shorts at key resistances. There is fib resistance at $3754 where I already opened and profited from two shorts earlier. Though if it does make another triangle here the target would be $3900. I'm not going to go long here though as it's too risky.

 

[SaiyanZ]

It already started to take shape, runup here we come. All indications point to a good day, I suspect we might even cross $200million long over short.

Is there somewhere can I find history on the Bitmex long/short superiority? Want to do some comparisons to earlier in the year.

This site just shows recent info:

https://coinfarm.online/?tcs=1h

 

[John Tempus]

Is there somewhere can I find history on the Bitmex long/short superiority? Want to do some comparisons to earlier in the year.

This site just shows recent info:

https://coinfarm.online/?tcs=1h

Its very hard to find other than building your own via the api, I have not even bothered to look into that probably wont ever.

Another source is https://datamish.com/d/000000004/btcusd?refresh=20s&orgId=1 , in the top right click the arrow key to set the date timeline. I think datamish might have long and short flip around cause its exact opposite unless they somehow interpret long/short differently.

I prefer the coinfarm design for realtime daily with 12hour history

 

[SaiyanZ]

Its very hard to find other than building your own via the api, I have not even bothered to look into that probably wont ever.

Another source is https://datamish.com/d/000000004/btcusd?refresh=20s&orgId=1 , in the top right click the arrow key to set the date timeline. I think datamish might have long and short flip around cause its exact opposite unless they somehow interpret long/short differently.

I prefer the coinfarm design for realtime daily with 12hour history

Thanks, had a look. The data seems to conflict. When looking at the past 24 hours, Datamish has short superiority of 57% (from the percent short/long chart) whilst Coinfarm has long superiority of 53%. Not sure what is correct.

Edit: It seems Datamish measures it in BTC but Coinfarm in USD. Which should explain the difference as the BTC price has changed (increased) over the last 24 hours.

So to me it means a lot more longs vs shorts have been placed after the price increased. Or a lot more shorts were placed before the price increased. Or a combination of both.

 

[John Tempus]

Thanks, had a look. The data seems to conflict. When looking at the past 24 hours, Datamish has short superiority of 57% (from the percent short/long chart) whilst Coinfarm has long superiority of 53%. Not sure what is correct.

Edit: It seems Datamish measures it in BTC but Coinfarm in USD. Which should explain the difference as the BTC price has changed (increased) over the last 24 hours.

So to me it means a lot more longs vs shorts have been placed after the price increased. Or a lot more shorts were placed before the price increased. Or a combination of both.

Ah ye, I do not like the BTC representation of datamish and since I monitor coinfarm 24/7 realtime data is good enough for me.

There is a rather common reliable trend specially with cases of massively stacked long or short superiority that is a build up for a given direction.

I just use this at times for confirmation of my own TA I follow however any superiority either long or short under $10million is not worth much but once it stacks over 50,100, and in current situation 150million you get a real stacked indication of what is about to unfold.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Yeah something big could happen with this setup. I don't think it's necessarily up though. At the moment shorts are under pressure but if we slide back towards $3600, all these longs could get squeezed and we end up with a larger move down back to the $3400 region and below.

 

[John Tempus]

Yeah something big could happen with this setup. I don't think it's necessarily up though. At the moment shorts are under pressure but if we slide back towards $3600, all these longs could get squeezed and we end up with a larger move down back to the $3400 region and below.

Its making the green dildo movement for sure, step after step.. I just cant see us not hitting 3900 or up by end of day. There is just too much long build up for this to stop or turn south right now. Lot have to change in short timespan for a 180.

EDIT: approaching $200million long positions, cow wanna jump over the moon.

 

[phly]

I dont think its looking too good for shorters now
May I add that the 1hr is looking up and the 4hr has not crossed indicator wise. I think I ate same thing @John Tempus ate today because I am bullish as well. We do need to go up with force aka volume otherwise its downhill from here on. I reckon we may only see true action around 2pm to 4pm -

 

[John Tempus]

The $3800 milestone pushing closer is like watching someone giving birth.

Contraction after contraction, weeeeeeeeeee!

EDIT: Its a boy!! I mean $3800!!

 

[phly]

The $3800 milestone pushing closer is like watching someone giving birth.

Contraction after contraction, weeeeeeeeeee!

Haha I am tempted to do a small trade and ride this up but knowing BTC I could get hanged on a wick down while it pushes up without me. I think my time may even be off. 3800 was touched. Baby is almost here.

 

[John Tempus]

Haha I am tempted to do a small trade and ride this up but knowing BTC I could get hanged on a wick down while it pushes up without me. I think my time may even be off. 3800 was touched. Baby is almost here.

I would wager you could handle any downswing with next leg up(this bullrun is far from over) if you dont leverage more than 5x-10x pick your risk inbetween at the current stage. 5x-10x leverage opening long right now would put your liquidation at $3125-$3410 safe as hell on a hot summer night.

There will be a bit of pullback after the 3800 crossed try find a gap pullback to 3780-3790 to get in If I were to enter late now thats what I would have done.

 

[phly]

I would wager you could handle any downswing with next leg up(this bullrun is far from over) if you dont leverage more than 5x at the current stage.

Therein lies the problem. The greed in me only wants 100x. Perhaps thats why I keep getting screwed repeatedly. One trade would go great and the other would wipe me out.

 

[John Tempus]

Therein lies the problem. The greed in me only wants 100x. Perhaps thats why I keep getting screwed repeatedly. One trade would go great and the other would wipe me out.

If you leverage 100x you are just straight up gambling.

Leveraging at 100x is actually leveraging at 204x with the potential reward of 100x leverage.

It is a straight up sucker bet.

Read this article to understand it better and why it is a sucker trade.

https://hackernoon.com/a-quick-starter-guide-to-using-leveraged-trading-at-bitmex-5383de4cb320

 

[SaiyanZ]

Just be careful going too high leverage. I don't do more than 10x now. I'm not convinced that we keep going up without any pullback. Previously, this was the area that longs got wrecked (the green and purple bubbles) which is the price where the last major impulse wave down started. At the moment it's dejavu. In order for this to be something new, $6830 has to break and the price has to hold/consolidate above there for a while.

 

[phly]

If you leverage 100x you are just straight up gambling.

Leveraging at 100x is actually leveraging at 204x with the potential reward of 100x leverage.

It is a straight up sucker bet.

Read this article to understand it better and why it is a sucker trade.

https://hackernoon.com/a-quick-starter-guide-to-using-leveraged-trading-at-bitmex-5383de4cb320

Yea it has been one of the main realizations this year. WHat i thought was trading was just straight up gambling and hence nothing much to show for it. Working on it and myself. Will actually try it out (using much less leverage) as I havent done anything below 50x and with my luck on TA I should actually be much further in the "rich" spectrum than I am.

 

[John Tempus]

Yea it has been one of the main realizations this year. WHat i thought was trading was just straight up gambling and hence nothing much to show for it. Working on it and myself. Will actually try it out (using much less leverage) as I havent done anything below 50x and with my luck on TA I should actually be much further in the "rich" spectrum than I am.

The max leverage I ever use is 25x and that is only when I have really strong indication based on my own TA that we hit a ceiling or bottom depending on direction.

My usual leverage is 10-15x in most cases depending on layered stacked positions or not.

I also run with lower leverage the higher my open position in value. I am not greedy so if I decide on a open position of 5-10BTC I am more than happy with 3-5x leverage whereas if its <1 BTC I would look into 15-25x leverage.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Here's my fractal analysis to show you guys what I've been seeing the last couple days:

 

[John Tempus]

Bitfinex just popped the $4k cherry.

At this rate Bitmex should hit that target sometime today however I would at this point prefer a few hours slowdown within the 3900-4000 range get some breathing room so I can find a good spot to liquidate profit and re enter for additional buffer.

 

[phly]

This is what I am seeing - and hoping to play out