Bitcoin Thread

[SaiyanZ]

Do you see 6k first then a drop or drop first then try and attempt for 6k? I am still bearish and seeing a test of lower 4k region - but the more I wait the higher we seem to be going. Not sure if it has anything to do with the bitfinex premium. But this up move just feels forced.

I really have no idea whether it's going to keep going or dump. One thing that points to more up is Bitfinex shorts though. Shorts kept going up and most were opened at $5400 or below. So a lot of shorts are underwater and can get squeezed easily.

Looking at the shorts in detail:

- about 3000BTC of shorts were opened at about $5300
- about 3000BTC of shorts were opened between $5400 and $5600
- about 5000BTC of shorts were opened at $5400

Price is now over $5700 on Bitfinex so they're in a bad position and stop losses plus liquidations must be close.

For now I'm happy with it trading between $4700 and $5700 on Bitstamp/Bitmex. Got 4 accounts covering that entire region so if it stays in there I keep on locking in profit. I think it's likely to stay in this range for a while unless we have some massive short squeeze which breaks through $6k.

 

[phly]

I fomoed into a short as well but not really worried just concerned that it keeps ploughing through the resistances. Does one drop then pushes further up. Should have gotten out ages ago and bought higher. Will wait and see - hoping the 6th brings about a trend change but until then we will just wait and see what BTC is planning - maybe a retest of 5600 or a push to 5800 even forcing shorts to close and then a dump.

 

[Swa]

It's the shorts that bother me so I'm back in. Much more likely to have a major move up than down. But there's likely to be major resistance before R6k so it should drop from there if it ever reaches it before going further.

 

[Swa]

Lol the uptrend is still in a perfect line while shorts keep going up. #HKGK

 

[phly]

I'm not a fan of being this far underwater... crazy that shorts keep increasing. I'm hoping for some news regarding finex to shake the markets abit. Like a major arrest or USDT related ban. i.e exchanges not recognizing tether as a 1:1 pair with USD.

 

[Swa]

This is interesting. Bitfinex has rose to a $400 premium but the other exchanges aren't really following. Even if there's major liquidations it may just die down again before there's any market reaction. I don't know what it means or what will happen but if there's a major move on Luno I'm considering selling no matter what eventually happens.

 

[SaiyanZ]

What a move, not even a pullback to scalp some trades. This is now the biggest one-way move since the pump a month ago. $5150 to $5600+ in 3 days without any significant retracement. Plus it came after 4 days of sideways at $5150. Probably fooled a lot of people, myself included.

After a move like this there should be big wicks in either direction as people close positions/get liquidated. So I'm just placing orders and waiting for those.

 

[phly]

Bitfinex is at 6k ... still letting that sink in.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Bitfinex is at 6k ... still letting that sink in.

Think the whole Tether issue might be making some bots/people think that we are breaking the November 2018 resistance on Bitfinex. In USD we are not there yet but it might be the manipulation/trick that whales/exchanges are using to get out of the bear market.

I just created a 5th account to trade the new range, $5600 to $6000. If we are going to stay here for a while I may as well try and trade it.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Just tapped the 2018 low of $5775. This technically should be heavy resistance and if it goes up more it should just be a quick wick. Though it's surprising to actually touched it at all. Push is very strong.

 

[SaiyanZ]

I think the most amazing thing about this move is that Bitfinex shorts are still high and have barely moved even though the Bitfinex price went up to $6145. Whoever is holding the bulk of these shorts are happy to keep holding them even far underwater.

 

[Tabac]

First time since last year when i bought @ R84100 i'm in the green.

 

[phly]

I think the most amazing thing about this move is that Bitfinex shorts are still high and have barely moved even though the Bitfinex price went up to $6145. Whoever is holding the bulk of these shorts are happy to keep holding them even far underwater.

Thats the crazy thing - what will it take to liquidate them - 6400?? or even higher? Watched an interesting clip that I may link here should anyone be interested but the gist of it is that Tether is in shambles and coz finex is not and cannot be able to pay the shorts then the only way is to liquidate them. Hence price went past 6k on finex - unfortunately shorts on there still remain resilient - the cause though is price on other exchanges also gets pulled up and liquidations continue to happen.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Thats the crazy thing - what will it take to liquidate them - 6400?? or even higher? Watched an interesting clip that I may link here should anyone be interested but the gist of it is that Tether is in shambles and coz finex is not and cannot be able to pay the shorts then the only way is to liquidate them. Hence price went past 6k on finex - unfortunately shorts on there still remain resilient - the cause though is price on other exchanges also gets pulled up and liquidations continue to happen.
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I'm not sure how people can even trust Bitfinex and Tether enough to still trade on there after the issues started around 9 months ago.

Wonder how it works. Lets say someone has a short at $5400 on Bitfinex. Liquidation price say $6000. Now lets say Tether devalues by about 20% so $1 = 1.2 Tethers. Bitfinex BTC price will automatically go up 20% to $5400x1.2 = $6480 so the short gets liquidated along the way but in real USD the price never changed and is still $5400. Is it fair for the liquidation to happen when Tether value can change so easily? Don't know how people still trade there.

 

[Swa]

I don't think it's unfair. Just like with ETH you assume the risk of trading in USDT. People should know that USDT is not USD and hopefully this will be another nail in the coffin. I'll prefer Bitfinex to go to dust before Tether does as the latter will just cause market upheaval again.

What I've seen with the shorts lately is that they seem to liquidate while longs get closed as well so have no effect. Like somebody is placing them whenever the price moves against them to mitigate the damage.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Tradingview reports the price as US dollars on their graph though. How is this even allowed as it's not correct and misleading? Tether can be 50c vs the USD and Bitfinex will show the price at $12000 instead of $6000. Don't know why at least this aspect is not regulated. It should be Bitcoin/USDT or Bitcoin/Tether at the top left of graph.

 

[Swa]

Yeah I dunno. That IS misleading. They might as well take the Rand value and report it in Dollar.

Something still tells me this is all false though. If it was real ETH would be reacting much more but it's still less than a few weeks ago.

 

[phly]

All in all everything is just shady - way too shady especially since that initial mega candle pump. As people started to not only speculate but ask questions. What started off as organic started to look more and more manipulated. What's not fair though is other folks on other exchanges getting liquidated due to bitfinex dragging prices up.

 

[John Tempus]

This is what I referred to on day one of tether drama. This entire pump is due to Bitfinex users exiting from holding tether and buying BTC and withdrawing from Bitfinex. Record Bitfinex wallet withdrawals in the last week coinciding with the pump.

After Bitfinex get a pump, the other markets follow suite. Nothing organic about what we see right now and throw your technicals out of the window until this blows over. This in my opinion is a real bias manipulation situations just because of Bitfinex pump by users trying to exit the exchange.

 

[John Tempus]

Yeah I dunno. That IS misleading. They might as well take the Rand value and report it in Dollar.

Something still tells me this is all false though. If it was real ETH would be reacting much more but it's still less than a few weeks ago.

Eth and most other coins is not reacting much before its a pure BTC exit pump from Bitfinex which is why BTC is suddenly seeing the rise in market dominance approaching 56%. When this cools down we should see BTC retrace and the alt markets recover with their own run to match whatever real target movement occurred.