Bitcoin Thread

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John Tempus said:
Now an alternative sinister thing could be that Bitfinex themself is using their USDT to buy up BTC on their own exchange, move the BTC via private accounts or even to OTC markets and selling it for real USD. This could be the case if they are really not liquid at all and the only capital they have is USDT funny money. This of course is huge speculation but if Bitfinex is as dodgy as some people think then it is entirely in the realm of possibilities.
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That has been speculated for a long time. If correct then it's part of the pump and dumps and there would be a major fall after every propping up.

SaiyanZ said:
I'm waiting for a surprise correction like this. Back in September 2018, $1000 dump in a day. My orders are ready.

ugjxSwRk
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Which is what sparked the whole move down to $3000. In fact the whole downward movement has been consistent from Jan '18 to Apr '19 when it hit $5000. Ironically that was just after all the fake news about new highs and April fools jokes so this entire "breakout" still seems artificial to me.
 
Manipulation aside, I don't think it will hold above $6k for long. Look at what happened at $4k and it wasn't even major resistance like $6k. It took several attempts and 3 months to break above $4k properly. You'd expect the same or more before $6k breaks properly.

ld4yJkM5
 
SaiyanZ said:
Manipulation aside, I don't think it will hold above $6k for long. Look at what happened at $4k and it wasn't even major resistance like $6k. It took several attempts and 3 months to break above $4k properly. You'd expect the same or more before $6k breaks properly.

ld4yJkM5
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True but you need to also not cherry pick the directions. :)

Look at the 7.1k down to 3k dump. There is outlying situations where it can dump right through or pump right through and hold after pump/dump for months.

That said I do see a realistic case of something like 5500 retesting and if it somehow dumps right through 5500 the <5k is easily going to happen.
 
Something that lends itself to the upside of crypto long term is that the exchanges hold the most crypto. So they are not just unbiased onlookers as they want the price to keep going up. It's not like other trading platforms where the platform has no vested interest in whether the stock/equity does well or not.

Hence long term there should still be an upwards trend like there has been for the last 8 years.
 
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John Tempus said:
True but you need to also not cherry pick the directions. :)

Look at the 7.1k down to 3k dump. There is outlying situations where it can dump right through or pump right through and hold after pump/dump for months.

That said I do see a realistic case of something like 5500 retesting and if it somehow dumps right through 5500 the <5k is easily going to happen.
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Yeah, the $4k was just an example of what should be expected. Once $6k broke properly with volume last year, the dump was on the cards. It had tested $6k one time too many. Same thing can/should be expected to happen at $6k, just the other way around from below.

My view is that we will be rangebound between $4200 and $6400 for the rest of the year.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Yeah, the $4k was just an example of what should be expected. Once $6k broke properly with volume last year, the dump was on the cards. It had tested $6k one time too many. Same thing can/should be expected to happen at $6k, just the other way around from below.
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Also the higher the price before correction/dump the more violent the correct/dump.

So I am hoping right now with my short that we see a fantastic dump right through 5800 today :)
 
SaiyanZ said:
Something that lends itself to the upside of crypto long term is that the exchanges hold the most crypto. So they are not just unbiased onlookers as they want the price to keep going up. It's not like other trading platforms where the platform has no vested interest in whether the stock/equity does well or not.

Hence long term there should still be an upwards trend like there has been for the last 8 years.
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While I agree with that how big should the uptrend be? Anything beyond 20% is just pushing it imo. We saw what the fomo and fees were at $20k.
 
Swa said:
While I agree with that how big should the uptrend be? Anything beyond 20% is just pushing it imo. We saw what the fomo and fees were at $20k.
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Not sure how high it can go. The large exchanges have a few hundred thousand Bitcoin of their own. So they become richer if the price goes up. They would want it as high as possible without spending their own money to maintain the level. If the price drops it should be easy enough to pump it up with that amount of crypto in their pockets. If the price goes up they will sell and keep a lot of the profits on the side to pump it up again if it drops too low.

This is what I would do if I was an exchange with 200k BTC in my wallet.

This is really long term though. There's no rush for the exchanges to do anything. The only way BTC can fall long term to nothing is if the exchanges do an exit scam, sell and run away with all the cash. Or if someone finds a way to hack/decrypt the blockchain.
 
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Well colour be purple but the current rally just keeps baiting back upwards. The drop earlier made me believe it might enter the <$6k dump for the day but that was so quickly recovered fully I got out of my short at breakeven + limit order $ profit, yay.

Right now it feels like even an 8ball can make better predictions than pure TA so Im sitting out until some sort of real direction is somewhat confirmed.
 
I'm not too concerned about pump. It looks like an ascending wedge with two possible targets $5840 or $5680. A move up now will just make the dump bigger.

WwiVUn7s
 
This is what I think the larger moves will be. $5600, then $6500, then $5000. Things seem to be happening similar to the drop from $5500 in November so far, just in reverse. It could go up a little more first to $6200. Upside down fractal:

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Something happening between the Bitfinex price and other exchanges.
 
There was a 6298 High on Bitmex - Its surprising how easily we are just trotting up. Without any significant dumps. I also did notice that Bitfinex had slowed down the climb and its premium is now about $75 only with other exchanges.
 
I don't mind $6400 or even $6700 as I'm waiting to add to a couple shorts there. I'll only get worried if it gets to $7000. My closest liquidation is at $7200 and this is for a short opened at $4900. Have been holding that one for a while. My trading strat allows for at least a 40% move in the price before liquidation at 10x leverage, even without adding to the position. Will add to the short at $6400 which will bring the average buy-in to $5650.
 
lol the bitcoin market price is somewhat completely fkd now. Bitmex carrying the torch with a price higher than Bitfinex now.

Someone going to get hurt when this corrects.
 
John Tempus said:
lol the bitcoin market price is somewhat completely fkd now. Bitmex carrying the torch with a price higher than Bitfinex now.

Someone going to get hurt when this corrects.
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Yeah, never expected it to move up this easily. Managed to add to some shorts though so at least I improved some positions for now. With it spiking all the way to $7k it's hard to say now where it will correct to. The chart says $5600 as the first major bounce area but that seems so far away now. Though I think it has to go sub $5k at some point as well based on previous breakouts like this.

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It's going to be an interested few days ahead. Binance deposits and withdrawals have been suspended for a few days because of the hack. So no arbitrage bots trading between exchanges and people can't add Bitcoin to the exchange to trade or sell.

I think once they allow deposits we will dump. Expect more people to sell after this sharp increase and others will want to add to their underwater shorts.
 
Nice to see luno in 6 figures again... see nothing much has changed on it(although is that a limit order option now?) anyway see its still clogged up with one dude 60btc or so spread over 1... would have thought by now they would have moved it to a big exchange where they can actually make money, oh well, each to their own /shrug
 
Bitcoin moved 8% in one day! Bitmex was even trading higher than bitfinex sometime earlier today. Marketcap crossed above 200 Billion and Bitcoin's dominance almost at 60% - Shorts have come down abit and longs have shot up. I don't know if we have much higher to go. I just want to see a proper well deserved dump. I still think 4k target is still on the cards before an actual proper bull run.
 
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