Bitcoin Thread

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Technicals aside my gut tells me we will at some point first revisit the $3k lows based on our current trend and possibly even lower since our $3k to $14k runup was a lower high than the runup to $20k so if the inverse plays out with people below $6k deciding its just all too much and gets off the btc train the price could in reality even retest as low as $1k.

If we fall down into that gutter then recovery is all up in the air to even think how long it might take to crawl back up into 5 digits.

Something must change that drastically alters the perception/outlook of the current market which in turn would cause a rebound from the current near 50% correction.

But ye the outlook short to medium term is rather bad for most traders.
 
Everyone is looking at the recent one month range but ignoring the larger range we've been trading in. Still hasn't revisited the >10k highs.
 
I don't think there's enough liquidity in the market to let it drop too low. As soon as there is some bigger profit taking and buying it will be difficult for the price to stay down. It already feels too low to be shorting except for small $100 moves. It will probably drop a bit more but I still wouldn't risk shorting and waiting for larger moves down at these prices..
 
SaiyanZ said:
I don't think there's enough liquidity in the market to let it drop too low. As soon as there is some bigger profit taking and buying it will be difficult for the price to stay down. It already feels too low to be shorting except for small $100 moves. It will probably drop a bit more but I still wouldn't risk shorting and waiting for larger moves down at these prices..
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Psychology of the market plays a much bigger role in such a highly manipulated game of cat and mouse. Most whales try to accumulate coins atm so per coin price is not the be all-end all for them right now and in fact the cheaper the coin price the better for them. The per coin price is by far the only factor for the majority of average joe traders and for these people seeing the rally up to $14k in just a few weeks and then the crash to $10k and slow bleed will make many people fear the same outcome as the sudden runup to $20k and then crash and slow bleed down to $3k.

There is many possibilities including a sudden pump but from a psychological fear perspective I think a much deeper dump from the current market price point is more likely due to fear than a speculative euphoric market pump.
 
John Tempus said:
Technicals aside my gut tells me we will at some point first revisit the $3k lows based on our current trend and possibly even lower since our $3k to $14k runup was a lower high than the runup to $20k so if the inverse plays out with people below $6k deciding its just all too much and gets off the btc train the price could in reality even retest as low as $1k.

If we fall down into that gutter then recovery is all up in the air to even think how long it might take to crawl back up into 5 digits.

Something must change that drastically alters the perception/outlook of the current market which in turn would cause a rebound from the current near 50% correction.

But ye the outlook short to medium term is rather bad for most traders.
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I still stick to my 4k theory - i believe we will revisit it. As for 1k - it's also a possibility. The novelty of Bitcoin will slowly wear off and the sideways will have avid traders uninterested. Lets see how this all pans out and what will be the agreed upon bottom down the road. There is a halving next year but the jury is out on whether that will have an impact on BTC price.
 
...price needs to hold 7400-7500 for couple hours(under 24) and bulls will buy dump back
 
Just looking at long term possibilities, if we draw a symmetric triangle on the log scale, midpoint is around $6800 and bottom around $4000. I don't see lower than $4000 in the current environment. Market makers also probably won't let it drop too far again as big traders trade only a small portion of what they hold. So pushing the price down too far is a net loss and no benefit for them even if they short with large positions. Surprise pumps are always more likely, like the $4000 to $14000 move in 3 month because they can then sell some of their bags for large gains.

4IeHCUFg
 
730577

was looking at 7900 and it went 8x higher! still managed some profits and doubling two small accounts i was playing with. Still feels like I left so much on the table. :X3:
 
Went through everything. Just glad I resisted the temptation of opening up a short for the last 3 days. Longs are in profit and I already took some partial profit.

BQct1eSq


I actually transferred some cash to Luno this morning in case of a big dump below $7k. Don't think I'll need to use it now.
 
Hah ye.

Ive pretty much hit the short (at $8050) and long(at $7450) as best I could hope for.

I still think this is just speculative/manipulation , I don't see any reason btc would just keep going up now and not plateau and dump even lower but hey there is more than enough profit to be made no matter which way the price decide to go.
 
phly said:
View attachment 730577

was looking at 7900 and it went 8x higher! still managed some profits and doubling two small accounts i was playing with. Still feels like I left so much on the table. :X3:
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Whatever your decisions that caused you to take profit dont stress over it. Long term thats more +EV than someone just gambling without following their own logic.

Profit is profit, it could pump above your take profit and still in the next candle crash down even deeper then you feel like a idiot. :P
 
Someone closed 1k of shorts off exchange 2 hours ago. Seems they knew something.
 
Since it's just flattening out instead of correcting I think we might see another big pump in the next day. Whichever group pumped this managed to do it perfectly in the last 6 hours as there was no correction. So you could go 100x long and be safe all the way. With such big profits they can either close all which will cause a dump or take partial profit and use the profit to pump it again in a few hours.

Think the pump again is the more likely scenario as there's no major sign of selling as yet and it will be easier to pump it a lot than dump it a lot right now as shorts are under pressure.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Since it's just flattening out instead of correcting I think we might see another big pump in the next day. Whichever group pumped this managed to do it perfectly in the last 6 hours as there was no correction. So you could go 100x long and be safe all the way. With such big profits they can either close all which will cause a dump or take partial profit and use the profit to pump it again in a few hours.

Think the pump again is the more likely scenario as there's no major sign of selling as yet and it will be easier to pump it a lot than dump it a lot right now as shorts are under pressure.
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The most telling period will be between 00:01 and 06:00 GMT , thats when volume tend to drop like a rock and reflects the current sentiment of the day to come more often than not.

If volume drops and price drop we often see the volume pickup later in the day in the direction of price drop but if we see volume drop and price go up there is a good chance we will get an over 9k saturday pump.

It is all up in the air and it really all depends on the whales , just make sure you get out with whatever profit.

A win is a win.
 
John Tempus said:
The most telling period will be between 00:01 and 06:00 GMT , thats when volume tend to drop like a rock and reflects the current sentiment of the day to come more often than not.

If volume drops and price drop we often see the volume pickup later in the day in the direction of price drop but if we see volume drop and price go up there is a good chance we will get an over 9k saturday pump.

It is all up in the air and it really all depends on the whales , just make sure you get out with whatever profit.

A win is a win.
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That top/bottom at daily close pattern could also start again to fool the bots and get some extra liquidity. Pump to the max and then sell for the next day whilst bots still buy because of previous days green, then switch to buy the next day whilst bots keep doing the opposite.

If we make a high and see a selloff starting around daily close today (2am) then this scenario is likely. Could get some good scalps in.
 
I will enjoy my gains and my weekend - I often find that getting back in after a good day of wins is just begging to give back what you have won - atleast in my experience. Especially if one jumps back in without much rationale. I will wait for things to settle and once there is a clear direction flow with that. In the interim i've been dabbling with forex which has been filling the gap that was left by BTC's sideways movement. Enjoy your weekend folks and trade safe
 
Second pump. I'm out of market now except for a small short. Can go anywhere now after 25% in one day. Around $9400 was always the expected zone to top out after it went below $9000 so it might still top out here.

BhmH1lcN
 
Wondering who longed x100 at $7400 this time

 
Woke up to $9600 - thought my bitcoin app was messed up somehow - couldn't believe it. With a weekly low of 7200 range and a high of 10500 - thats a 45% move on weekly candle! Unbelievable.
 
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