Bitcoin Thread

[Thor]

I think we will go below $5k this year still.

 

[phly]

Let me also do my own prediction ... $8550 incoming.

 

[Temujin]

I still want my $15k december

 

[SaiyanZ]

Feels like it's running out of time to pump past $7700/$8000. 3rd attempt now and still waiting. I'm just holding longs and doing nothing.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Think this has to keep going up now. BTC (or any stock) will rarely ever touch the same trendline 5 times in a row without breaking it. Even 4 times is a stretch. This should break up, to at least $8400.

 

[saor]

I think we will go below $5k this year still.

Might get close if it does something like this:

 

[Swa]

The (post) black Friday dump has started. Prepare for $6500.

 

[Superman-7]

Think this has to keep going up now. BTC (or any stock) will rarely ever touch the same trendline 5 times in a row without breaking it. Even 4 times is a stretch. This should break up, to at least $8400.

Doubt it. I'm leaning toward breaking below 7k again. But this is bitcoin, and it's anyone's guess.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Doubt it. I'm leaning toward breaking below 7k again. But this is bitcoin, and it's anyone's guess.

Yeah it is taking a bit too long now. Volatility is great though. Much better than the previous month where it just went slowly down. Can make much more profit if it keeps going up and down like this and the down move is ultimately limited.

Short term, it looks like it might drop more as $7300 is now almost too obvious a buy zone. I'll just stick to my plan though unless we start making new lows. Will only start shorting at $8400 and layer longs if it drops.

 

[Swa]

6k here we come

 

[Tjoker]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VtIX1ezd/

Bull Trap Ma se Kinners!

 

[SaiyanZ]

Breakout rejection. Back to the guessing zone.

 

[Swa]

Looking at your chart there's still a downward channel push. All this latest escapade did was to push up the averages so instead of breaking above we'll now trade below for longer.

 

[John Tempus]

Breakout rejection. Back to the guessing zone.

From TA perspective in a normal ie. much bigger volume market, I would say you are right.

But right now we are in droplet trading volume market and these breakouts and breakdowns is nothing more than manipulation for TA to give false directions. It will continue week after week like this until we actually start to see real daily volume that keeps growing. Right now on average the volume is so low it could be orchestrated by a single big ass whale.

 

[SaiyanZ]

From TA perspective in a normal ie. much bigger volume market, I would say you are right.

But right now we are in droplet trading volume market and these breakouts and breakdowns is nothing more than manipulation for TA to give false directions. It will continue week after week like this until we actually start to see real daily volume that keeps growing. Right now on average the volume is so low it could be orchestrated by a single big ass whale.

Yeah it seems like a mess right now with no clear direction.

I also feel like I'm not making the most of all these moves as I'm only closing positions after around $300+ moves in profit. Think I'll soon halve the amount I'm trading per position and instead take profit after $150+ moves. Risk should be similar but will potentially make more money from the noise.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Looking at your chart there's still a downward channel push. All this latest escapade did was to push up the averages so instead of breaking above we'll now trade below for longer.

There is also this upwards channel now and it's been hitting the upper resistance several times. Eventually this will have to give way. If it was very bearish we should not be getting close to or touching that upper resistance at all by now. Seems like there's about 3 days max now before something big has to happen.

 

[John Tempus]

Yeah it seems like a mess right now with no clear direction.

I also feel like I'm not making the most of all these moves as I'm only closing positions after around $300+ moves in profit. Think I'll soon halve the amount I'm trading per position and instead take profit after $150+ moves. Risk should be similar but will potentially make more money from the noise.

Ive stopped making constant adjustments just to try squeeze out when there is a week or two of channeling noise. Long term it just does not actually make you more because suddenly things change and trying to make changes just to catch the noise all of a sudden crush you within a new market change.

Rather keep a consistent strategy long term that ignores the profit potential you could make in these odd cases but recoups it sometimes 10 fold when market changes again.

Writing this from an automated trading position. I suppose it makes sense if you manually trade to actually with human eye make adjustments on the fly but from automated perspective I have stopped messing with things and rather look at it low variance long term.

 

[MeNeZ]

Ive stopped making constant adjustments just to try squeeze out when there is a week or two of channeling noise. Long term it just does not actually make you more because suddenly things change and trying to make changes just to catch the noise all of a sudden crush you within a new market change.

Rather keep a consistent strategy long term that ignores the profit potential you could make in these odd cases but recoups it sometimes 10 fold when market changes again.

Writing this from an automated trading position. I suppose it makes sense if you manually trade to actually with human eye make adjustments on the fly but from automated perspective I have stopped messing with things and rather look at it low variance long term.

What do you mean automated, do you use a bot or set stop losses?

 

[Tjoker]

There is also this upwards channel now and it's been hitting the upper resistance several times. Eventually this will have to give way. If it was very bearish we should not be getting close to or touching that upper resistance at all by now. Seems like there's about 3 days max now before something big has to happen.

Found this as well:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1202838727069798400

 

[John Tempus]

What do you mean automated, do you use a bot or set stop losses?

Automated as in bot following specific logic. You lose out on some areas better suited for manual trading but you have the freedom of not having to be consumed by charts 24/7.