BTC : Where is the bottom?

A

ashdgee

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 1, 2016
Messages
160
Reaction score
63
Location
Cape Town
Of course there is no formula to accurately predict the price, despite applying complex mathematical analysis , whether its Elliot Wave, Fibonacci or death cross techniques etc (although based on historical trends, they say lows of between 18k and 22k are possible).

But what is everyone's opinion on this bearish trend now? Are you optimistic or not? I was hoping the BTC will go to less than 25k in hope of pulling some short trades and buying more but not sure if that will happen, especially with this new test level of 29-31k USD.
 
Above (way) above 20k if it succeeded as a currency, but it hasn’t and won’t.

As an alternative to gold, somewhere under 10k.
 
Think bottom is around 25-28k, anywhere there is a good entry. Think Micheal Saylor gets liquidated at 21k so if it goes close to that there might be real fireworks although very unlikely.
 
Keep an eye on the stablecoin Tether (USDT), it briefly lost its peg recently - causing the dip in the market. If it happens again (and they've just recently stopped posting their daily liquidity updates), then it might go the same way as Terra & Luna.

Once that happens all of crypto is collapsing....which might be a good thing long term, but it's going to hurt a LOT of people.

Why? Because when you sell your BTC on an exchange and have $ or ZAR or whatever in your account wallet, it's not real dollars (USD), it's Tether (USDT) which acts as a dollar equivalent in between trades - and to avoid you having to cash in/out from your bank account.

If tether crashes, it will drag the entire crypto market down with it until another stablecoin or complete alternative can be made.

So if your plan was to cash out your Bitcoin on an exchange and keep the funds there to buy the dip - I have BAD news for you. EDIT: Maybe. Depends. I have to read more about this.
 
Last edited:
Voicy said:
Why? Because when you sell your BTC on an exchange and have $ or ZAR or whatever in your account wallet, it's not real dollars (USD), it's Tether (USDT) which acts as a dollar equivalent in between trades - and to avoid you having to cash in/out from your bank account.
Click to expand...
Ja no I don't think that's correct.

If USDT had a total supply of 100 coins and I cash out 50 USD worth of BTC on a local exchange for ZAR, the local exchange doesn't use 50 USDT for that process. The only time USDT would be invoked is if I explicitly sell BTC for USDT on an exchange with that trading pair. When I sell BTC on an exchange for ZAR - that is managed internally by the exchange - they aren't secretly hedging on USDT or some other stablecoin behind the scenes.
 
saor said:
Ja no I don't think that's correct.

If USDT had a total supply of 100 coins and I cash out 50 USD worth of BTC on a local exchange for ZAR, the local exchange doesn't use 50 USDT for that process. The only time USDT would be invoked is if I explicitly sell BTC for USDT on an exchange with that trading pair. When I sell BTC on an exchange for ZAR - that is managed internally by the exchange - they aren't secretly hedging on USDT or some other stablecoin behind the scenes.
Click to expand...
I thought the same initially, but it seems roughly 80% of all BTC transactions happens via Tether...and even they themselves are leveraged. They claim to hold $1 for every coin, but that wasn't the case in 2017. So liquidity is a concern.

It might well be that Luno holds direct cash deposits, but bigger international exchanges might not. And that's the conern.

medium.com

Tether Connection Puts Bitcoin at Risk

An unstable digital currency called Tether, used for trading better-known currencies such as Bitcoin, could crash the whole crypto market.
medium.com medium.com

But as you say, I may be completely missing the mark here. (And I hope I am...because I'm still just learning all of this on the fly. So any corrections are welcomed!)
 
Last edited:
Voicy said:
It might well be that Luno holds direct cash deposits
Click to expand...
they certainly do, in fact in Malaysia for example (where Luno is one of the few licensed crypto exchanges) those direct cash deposits, by law, is held in a trust account where even Luno does not have full control over it, but an approved independent trustee is providing oversight and final approval instead

i.e. any crypto exchange licensed in Malaysia has direct cash deposits for customer funds
 
My 2sats

Short term We will retest the recent lows at 24.5. maybe wick below. Followed by a fake rally.

We enter a recession end of June and capitulate. We likely retest previous cycle peak at 20 and bounce again.

Fed still refuses to pivot.

We capitulate again. Then all bets are off. I have a cheeky limit order at 17k. Below that i don't care.

Bitcoin adoption will continue as lightning network rolls out.

It's not a Ponzi.

Fiat is a Ponzi.

The dollar will remain strong as the rest of the world's currencies weaken. World governments will rush into the dollar to pay off their locally denominated debts. Dollar enters a liquidity crisis. Google "Dollar Milkshake effect"

Countries will continue to accumulate bitcoin on their balance sheets because it's becoming increasingly clear that the dollar is the real Ponzi. Bitcoin, gold and hard assets will become the only true hedge against inflation.

In 5 years, BTC will be 100k+, and all the usual suspects will still be squawking about it going to zero.
 
bromster said:
My 2sats

Short term We will retest the recent lows at 24.5. maybe wick below. Followed by a fake rally.

We enter a recession end of June and capitulate. We likely retest previous cycle peak at 20 and bounce again.

Fed still refuses to pivot.

We capitulate again. Then all bets are off. I have a cheeky limit order at 17k. Below that i don't care.

Bitcoin adoption will continue as lightning network rolls out.

It's not a Ponzi.

Fiat is a Ponzi.

The dollar will remain strong as the rest of the world's currencies weaken. World governments will rush into the dollar to pay off their locally denominated debts. Dollar enters a liquidity crisis. Google "Dollar Milkshake effect"

Countries will continue to accumulate bitcoin on their balance sheets because it's becoming increasingly clear that the dollar is the real Ponzi. Bitcoin, gold and hard assets will become the only true hedge against inflation.

In 5 years, BTC will be 100k+, and all the usual suspects will still be squawking about it going to zero.
Click to expand...
Agree with all of this except that btc can't be mentioned in the same breath as gold

Gold is king. Gold will always be king

Edit: meant to say can't
 
Last edited:
bromster said:
My 2sats

Short term We will retest the recent lows at 24.5. maybe wick below. Followed by a fake rally.

We enter a recession end of June and capitulate. We likely retest previous cycle peak at 20 and bounce again.

Fed still refuses to pivot.

We capitulate again. Then all bets are off. I have a cheeky limit order at 17k. Below that i don't care.

Bitcoin adoption will continue as lightning network rolls out.

It's not a Ponzi.

Fiat is a Ponzi.

The dollar will remain strong as the rest of the world's currencies weaken. World governments will rush into the dollar to pay off their locally denominated debts. Dollar enters a liquidity crisis. Google "Dollar Milkshake effect"

Countries will continue to accumulate bitcoin on their balance sheets because it's becoming increasingly clear that the dollar is the real Ponzi. Bitcoin, gold and hard assets will become the only true hedge against inflation.

In 5 years, BTC will be 100k+, and all the usual suspects will still be squawking about it going to zero.
Click to expand...
Is there any reason they can’t both be a ponzi?
 
Nike7 said:
Is there any reason they can’t both be a ponzi?
Click to expand...
No reason whatsoever. Humans bartered with rocks, slaves, bottle caps and all kinds of stuff throughout history.

Maybe we should go back to the Virgin standard.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top
Sign up to the MyBroadband newsletter
X