Crap weather forecasting

SAWS is my only weather source and they have forcasters that make personal weather entries too. Sat photos are taken at 6 am, 11 am and 4pm, and I always use the
7day forecast, I check the weather twice a day lol, once in the morning and again just after 4pm.
 
it's called Forecast for a reason... can never trust the weather, changes any time it feels like, much like a woman:D
 
killadoob said:
I do not think weather forecasting is an exact science yet, sure they can get it pretty spot on at times but i also think at times it can go badly wrong :D.
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My sister Au Paired in Boston for a year and she claims that if the forecast is rain, it rains. They sometimes forecast a time of day as well, and it was accurate within 10min at worst.
Perhaps a lot of US forecasting accuracy has to do with their strict health and safety policies?
 
wrathex said:
SAWS is my only weather source and they have forcasters that make personal weather entries too. Sat photos are taken at 6 am, 11 am and 4pm, and I always use the
7day forecast, I check the weather twice a day lol, once in the morning and again just after 4pm.
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The weather forecast all day yesterday in my area, was rain. Not a DROP fell in a 50KM radius. Not even dew. Their prediction was 80% humidity at 20:00. My R50 home humidity dial read 65% and there wasn't a cloud in the sky.

My gripe is, why have this service if it is so unreliable? Sure, the temperatures are relatively accurate, but the rest is plain bollocks. Just show a table detailing the Max/Min temps for the forthcoming day and do away with reports on TV.
 
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I had a good chuckle to the weather report on Cape Talk on Saturday. Simon Gear did the report and after he read it he chatted with the show hosts about it. Simon kept referring to "if they got it right" and "hopefully they" won't be wrong but in this case they is/was him. He was the they because he was doing the report. So even the forecasters don't trust themselves.
 
Waaib said:
I had a good chuckle to the weather report on Cape Talk on Saturday. Simon Gear did the report and after he read it he chatted with the show hosts about it. Simon kept referring to "if they got it right" and "hopefully they" won't be wrong but in this case they is/was him. He was the they because he was doing the report. So even the forecasters don't trust themselves.
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As far as I know, Simon Gear works out the forecast himself with the help of other meteorologists. He analyses the data received from SAWS and creates the weather forecast map you see on TV.
So by "they", he does actually mean himself! :D
 
genetic said:
I find that SABC's weather forecast is far more accurate than eTV's, or many other sources for that matter.
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I agree. E-TV are so enamoured with their 3D format that they forget that viewers want to know information. It’s not clear what the weather forecast is for the morrow and to use only colours to convey information is plain stupid. What if you’re colour blind? Standing in front of vital information and mugging for the camera makes me foam at the mouth. The only worthwhile elements (satellite pictures, animated isobars) the crappy new format has, the presenter stands in the way while pontificating. Why not have a voice-over (like SABC 3) or maybe they can stand in front of Cape Town in the Atlantic (not Durban) while pontificating (about obvious stuff that’s on the chart). Script runs from left to right so nothing would be obscured.

[RANT]And another thing. The weather bulletin is supposed to be informative. If the presenters want to mug for the camera, this is not the place. My wife: “Oh no! What has she done with her hair?” “Those colours clash, what can she have been thinking?” “The new male weather presenter is rather a dish.” (gag) [/RANT]

I presume that the weather forecasts are normally done by projecting the temperature and rainfall results (recorded since the year dot in a database). This would give the historical record for the period and supply broad parameters for temperature and rainfall. Factored-in is any satellite imagery, a wet finger stuck out the window and a phone call to granny to see how her arthritis is feeling. This would give the local dimension.

FHM magazine ran a useful column. You nominated a TV personality who deserved a harpoon through the face. I recall Jamie Oliver (the TV cook) was one who achieved this dubious honour. In the spirit of non-gender discrimination and equal opportunity, I nominate the men and women e TV weather personalities for harpoons through the face.

Tip:
Presumably the weather bulletin is limited to a fixed time frame. An analysis should be done on what conveys the maximum amount of information. More time should be spent in these areas, rather than pandering to the egos of the presenters. Also, a pause (1 second?) after the satellite picture animation at the end of its sequence will give time to absorb and switch focus between the last satellite photo and the latest cloud cover.
 
As far as I understand the weather service forecasts the worst case scenario. So with all the data etc what is the worst thing that could transpire.
 
Palimino said:
I agree. E-TV are so enamoured with their 3D format that they forget that viewers want to know information.
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SABC's weather system is simple, which hasn't changed in years (10 - 15 yrs+). It's fairly accurate (better than e), you can decipher what's on the screen and its easy to understand. That's all you need. No need for fancy 3D flyovers and a weather forecast that focuses more on the presenter than the actual weather report itself.

Reminds me of Greame Heart for some reason.. :D - The Riaan Crywagen of SABC's weather service.
 
Its clear that few people understand how weather works especially with rain:

80% means 8 out of 10 areas in the region will receive some degree of rain in a 24hr period - its got nothing to do with intensity.


SA Weather collects data for 1/7th of earths surface, its one of the worlds largest and most respected weather bureaus, but its all just data. What the guys do with it is obviously the debate here.
 
That's the thing cbrunsdonza, not only what you stated, but also the local weather phenomena, a national or regional forecast does not include every possible scenario for local weather, people who for instance live near mountains understand the concept of local weather, we have this a lot in the Cape Province.

Sunny and windless one side of the mountain, raging with cloud and wind on the other, all in the same area.
 
Sailing people have been warned never to trust the weather forecasts in SA (not the Vaal Dam, Offshore sailors). Get the synoptic charts they do help.
 
Thugscub said:
Sailing people have been warned never to trust the weather forecasts in SA (not the Vaal Dam, Offshore sailors). Get the synoptic charts they do help.
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I don’t think, even the passable, TV weather should have those types of decisions tied to it. It’s more just checking if the weather is OK for a picnic or an open-air concert. Not mindblowingly serious.
 
Palimino said:
Also, a pause (1 second?) after the satellite picture animation at the end of its sequence will give time to absorb and switch focus between the last satellite photo and the latest cloud cover.
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This should read ... and switch focus between the TIME of the last satellite photo and the latest cloud cover. The time is given in the upper left-hand corner of the TV screen (usually 15:00). If you are lucky you get 3 complete satellite imagery cycles. The 1st cycle is just getting an idea of the cloud cover (will the berg stop that mass moving SE?) – I’m in Durban. The 2nd cycle is when you start splitting your attention (and changing focus) between the cloud cover and the time in order to determine the speed of weather system development (last photo at 15:00, weather report at 19:30 – 4.5 hours difference). Then you are cut-off (was the cut halfway through the time sequence?). I realise that the bulletin is not comprehensive but if you include satellite imagery, it should be more than show “Look how hi-tech and 21 century we are with our new system. No, you are not supposed to make sense of it, just gasp in admiration.” <gag>
 
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