DA is losing support under Maimane: poll

Mike Hoxbig said:
Instead of bickering about who to vote for, everyone should encourage each other to actually vote in the first place. 8 million didn't vote. The ANC could have been well below 50% if everyone actually voted...
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8 million uneducated voters, I mean if they haven't voted by now. Think you know where those would've went ;)
 
MickeyD said:
You folks need to go do your homework on how the proportional seats are allocated. Voting for a small party gives the majority party more proportional seats.
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Not true.

Too many people think like that and that it is so wrong. Your vote counts very effective even if you are voting for the Dagga party. Seats are allocated based on percentage of total votes.

Example: If 1 million of the Anc's votes in 2014 were for many tiny parties, that resulted in NO seats for them, the Anc would have had 25 LESS seats.
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http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthr...under-Zuma?p=16499651&viewfull=1#post16499651

If the Ance gets 65% of the total votes, it get 65% of the 400 seats. Simple really.

The bolded part above was me demostrating exactly the opposite of that kind of thinking. If you party don't get any seats, you voting for them still results into a lower percentage allocation for the ruling party.
 
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Pitbull said:
This is not quite how it works though. Mathematically....

Let's say you have 10 voters.

All 10 people vote for different parties:

2/10 vote for the one party (20%)
2/10 vote for the other party (20%)
6/10 vote for the another party (60%)

10/10 votes right?

Now let's assume the following:

Only 8 people out of 10 vote:

2/8 = 25%
1/8 = 12.5%
5/8 = 62.5%

Even with losing 1 vote the majority party's percentage went up by 2.5%

Spoiling a vote is like voting for the majority party. The sooner people realise this the better. Votes are tallied and counted on the voted numbers not those registered to vote vs those that voted. That is the reality. Vote for another party then instead of abstaining/spoiling a vote. All good an well if you were intending on voting for the majority anyway then sure, abstain or spoil your vote.
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Ah, but you're making massive assumptions about which party supporters will spoil their votes. It could go both ways. There are likely a lot of former ANC supporters who no longer agree with everything the ANC stands for but cannot bring themselves to vote for DA or EFF.
 
Ninja'd said:
8 million uneducated voters, I mean if they haven't voted by now. Think you know where those would've went ;)
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Also lots of lazy people who don't want to stand in a queue or think that their vote won't matter. I know a few of these, and I'm sure most people do too. The first party to propose mandatory voting by law will get my vote...
 
MickeyD said:
Then the DA would have received a greater number of PR seats and the ANC fewer of the PR seats.
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You are assuming of course that those smaller parties voters would vote for the DA. They could equally have gone to the ANC
 
imranpanji said:
Now if you add up all those 7 parties votes together and add them to the DA, what difference would it make in terms of seats?
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You could equally as well assume those votes could swing to the ANC if people were forced strictly down ANC/DA lines.
 
eehellfire said:
Garson007 said:
650 is not a small sample size.
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Agree to disagree
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Why? For statistical inference, once you are sampling a population of more than 500 000 the actual population size does not really matter anymore - bearing in mind your sampling has to be representative of the actual population.

A sample of 650 out of any population larger than 500 000 will have error margins of around 6.5% at 99.9% confidence level (i.e. quite likely to be correct).

However, you are right that the press is notoriously crap at reporting statistics. The result of this survey was probably something like: "Only 8% (+- 6.5% at a 99.9% confidence level) of respondents said that they would vote for the DA if Maimane is the leader". Then the press decided to throw statistics out of the door completely and report a completely misleading point estimate.
 
garp said:
You could equally as well assume those votes could swing to the ANC if people were forced strictly down ANC/DA lines.
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But even numbers wise, the % of the vote that those seats represent is 1 seat at most. Is that 1 seat worth a reduction in diversity? And to remove the voice from those that are hardly represented anyway?
 
I don't understand why digital voting hasn't made it's way into elections yet.

It's not complicated. Just get people to register their fingerprints when it's convenient, before the elections.

On election day, scan your fingerprint and press a button on a touch-screen device to cast your vote...and Bob's your aunty!

This eliminates the time it takes to vote and makes it harder to rig votes.

Has anyone else though about this? I mean, it's not like mobile data connections don't exist almost everywhere in the country...so no one can say this isn't possible...
 
Ninja'd said:
The hell?
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Could be one of the below:

1.Slow brain syndrome.
2. Argumentative choice fail. 2nd argument provided a better path
3. Multiple personality disorder. 2 different people posted
4. Bamboozle the opposition

Or all of the above
 
imranpanji said:
Now if you add up all those 7 parties votes together and add them to the DA, what difference would it make in terms of seats?
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As you and garp correctly point out, it would most definitely depend on which way the voter will cast his/her "party" vote (remember you get two ballot papers - one for the ward and one for the metro).

If they swung to the DA it would have given the ANC a majority of 1 seat on the council (61/120 in total).

Where the ANC has a massive majority it won't matter.... here in PE it does matter.
 
GrammatonCleric said:
I don't understand why digital voting hasn't made it's way into elections yet.

It's not complicated. Just get people to register their fingerprints when it's convenient, before the elections.

On election day, scan your fingerprint and press a button on a touch-screen device to cast your vote...and Bob's your aunty!

This eliminates the time it takes to vote and makes it harder to rig votes.

Has anyone else though about this? I mean, it's not like mobile data connections don't exist almost everywhere in the country...so no one can say this isn't possible...
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What's stopping you from rocking up election day, with a pocket full of fingers after a massacre the night before, and placing 100 votes on your party?
 
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