Do you believe aliens exist?

Do you believe aliens exist?

  • Yes

    Votes: 215 81.1%

  • No

    Votes: 50 18.9%
  • Total voters
    265
saor said:
1.) You haven't explained anything.
2.) An example of life (1) doesn't amount to a ratio that has universal reach.

I have a box of 100 marbles: 99 green and 1 blue.

The only way I can make claims about probabilities or ratios of blue to green marbles is to know or extrapolate the total quantity (blue and green) or marbles. The knowledge or extrapolation comes first, which provides the ratio. You can't start with a ratio. We don't know the total quantity (how much life is out there), we only know what exists in our little corner of space. Without such knowledge we cannot even extrapolate the potential numbers, and without those numbers we cannot arrive at a ratio such that you seem to have arrived at.

The only ratio you can claim has any substance is:
1:Our little corner of space that we know about.

1.) I don't know if aliens exist.
2.) I think it's likely that if life arose once it's probably a feature of the universe that can occur elsewhere in infinity.
3.) I have an issue with your use of stats and ratios, not with your view that aliens don't exist.
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You don't have to count all the marbles if you expropriate from the existing data set.
 
rietrot said:
You don't have to count all the marbles if you expropriate from the existing data set.
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You know nothing about the contents of the box of marbles.
You reach in and take out a green marble.

Please tell me what you can extrapolate about the contents of the box and the other marbles.
Anything at all other than the fact that there's at least one green marble.
One additional useful bit of data.
What is it?
What can you extrapolate?
Where do derive a ratio from with only one green marble in your hand?
 
saor said:
You know nothing about the contents of the box of marbles.
You reach in and take out a green marble.

Please tell me what you can extrapolate about the contents of the box and the other marbles.
Anything at all other than the fact that there's at least one green marble.
One additional useful bit of data.
What is it?
What can you extrapolate?
Where do derive a ratio from with only one green marble in your hand?
Click to expand...
Now your getting it. Now before we can say that there is a probability of life accruing elsewhere I would like to see atleast 2 green marbles. With just one we can't come to the conclusion that this is something that just happens all over the universe.
 
rietrot said:
Now before we can say that there is a probability of life accruing elsewhere I would like to see atleast 2 green marbles.
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Ah, so I need more data in order to say anything?
I'd like to remind you of something you said:

rietrot said:
You don't have to count all the marbles if you expropriate from the existing data set.
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Your data set for life, like my green marbles, is 1. You see, you can't demand that I require additional marbles in order to say things about probabilities, but you get the luxury of only seeing one marble and extrapolating out from that. The rules you raise need to apply to both of us.

With just one we can't come to the conclusion that this is something that just happens all over the universe.
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With just one observable occurrence of X (life), there's already a non-zero chance of X occurring.
X is thus a feature of a universe like ours.

It would seem very strange to me that in an infinite space, X occurs 0+1 times and no more.

It seems a more logical assumption that if X is a non-zero feature of an infinite universe, that X would occur 0+n times, rather than only 0+1 times.
 
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It's very likely that there is but there is a chance we will never make contact or find them (at least other civilizations).

There is a chance we may find microbes on one of Saturns moons within the next 50 years.
 
For aliens not to exist is near impossible. What they're about is beyond us though, and there's clearly some nasty ones too.
 
I had doubts - big doubts ....... then I entered the Russo UA thread




Yes, they walk amongst us and are computer liberate :)
 
Pak Fa Fui said:
Did the aliens build the pyramids
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If you're even half serious;

9780434003051-us.jpg
 
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