E-tolls heading for failure with low uptake: OUTA

Great news, I still won't buy an etag...
 
While I agree that e-Tag sales are low, I think it is way too early to make a call on this saying the system is doomed.

Most road users are now on holiday, either sitting at home or out of the province.

Let's wait until January and see the impact in sales when people return to work - which I believe will still be low in numbers. And, then in February when invoices are sent.

I think, once invoices are sent and a non-tagged person, who uses the road on a daily basis gets a R2k invoice that will be the turning point for most. R2k vs R450 and I suspect that is when the large gross of road users will get tagged.

Personally I think that most road users will wait and see if invoices will come. When, and if it does, things will change.
 
Well said House.

The only thing i wonder how is this gonna affect those that are hiring cars. Like in my instance I'm hiring a Polo for the 17-19 Jan 2014 wend.
 
SANRAL can't just sit and wait for this. They knew what was going to happen. No one could be that incompetent (Especially with such large amounts involved)
Sooner or later the other shoe will drop and they will attempt to make an example of some people. That is when this will get really ugly. What is the plan then?
 
Compton_effect said:
SANRAL can't just sit and wait for this. They knew what was going to happen. No one could be that incompetent (Especially with such large amounts involved)
Sooner or later the other shoe will drop and they will attempt to make an example of some people. That is when this will get really ugly. What is the plan then?
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Yes, I did not mention this part for a reason, mainly because I am not 100% what actions they will take. However, the majority of non-tag users will get registered when they start receiving their invoices.

You may still have a minority who will not pay, but they will be dealt with in a number of ways looking at news reports. Once they are taken care of, Sanral will probably achieve their targets and the majority of Gauteng e-Toll road users will be registered.
 
House said:
Yes, I did not mention this part for a reason, mainly because I am not 100% what actions they will take. However, the majority of non-tag users will get registered when they start receiving their invoices.

You may still have a minority who will not pay, but they will be dealt with in a number of ways looking at news reports. Once they are taken care of, Sanral will probably achieve their targets and the majority of Gauteng e-Toll road users will be registered.
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I would have been inclined to agree- but the article today that we can expect increased petrol prices next year makes me wonder.
This is a massive bite out of people's wallets. A large number of people won't comply - simply because they can't pay.
 
I just wanted to say something but decided to keep quiet, since I don't want to give the government any idea.

edit: I changed my mind.

If they really want to screw non e-tag users link it into the license renewal system.
You would be unable to renew your license unless you payed at least 50% of what is owed to E-Toll fine. :twisted:
 
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If JMPD only manages to collect 20% of their fines how on earth will Sanral beat that? I bet you there will be a <20% that pay.... and the rest... will just slip through the system. That 20% is still a lot of money. Those that get tagged will end up being the only ones that pay.

I do not mind paying for the roads, but through fuel levies, or maybe raising VAT to 15%, not this mess. This will just increase the cost of living and make RSA less competitive. So less investment, less jobs.

Why spend billions on roads? and the actively discourage users to use them, now everyone is driving on the side roads causing them to crumble, so who will pay for that? I guess more toll roads coming to a side road near you, next there will be a tax on every KM travelled on a road...so we are back to fuel levy?

I guess the CPT will get a lot more gauteng refugees. Skills will move, businesses will move where the skills are. Excpect CPT to be the economic hub in a few years.
 
Compton_effect said:
I would have been inclined to agree- but the article today that we can expect increased petrol prices next year makes me wonder.
This is a massive bite out of people's wallets. A large number of people won't comply - simply because they can't pay.
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Yes, I saw that and it is also not sitting well with me.

While I agree with you, those who cannot afford it will simply be forced to alternative routes at the end of the day.
 
znh said:
If JMPD only manages to collect 20% of their fines how on earth will Sanral beat that? I bet you there will be a <20% that pay.... and the rest... will just slip through the system. That 20% is still a lot of money. Those that get tagged will end up being the only ones that pay.

I do not mind paying for the roads, but through fuel levies, or maybe raising VAT to 15%, not this mess. This will just increase the cost of living and make RSA less competitive. So less investment, less jobs.

Why spend billions on roads? and the actively discourage users to use them, now everyone is driving on the side roads causing them to crumble, so who will pay for that? I guess more toll roads coming to a side road near you, next there will be a tax on every KM travelled on a road...so we are back to fuel levy?

I guess the CPT will get a lot more gauteng refugees. Skills will move, businesses will move where the skills are. Excpect CPT to be the economic hub in a few years.
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You are right, and remember that JMPD issues much less fines compared to the number of vehicles that will pass under each individual gantry.

At the end of the day I do not think Sanral will head for a 100% collection target. I don't know what their targets are, but I think it will be safe to assume a 30-45% collection rate for non-tag users will be a fair target, which will still generate billions. The remainder will be collected the moment criminal charges are laid in terms of the Sanral act.
 
znh said:
Why spend billions on roads? and the actively discourage users to use them, now everyone is driving on the side roads causing them to crumble, so who will pay for that? I guess more toll roads coming to a side road near you, next there will be a tax on every KM travelled on a road...so we are back to fuel levy?
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As if planning ahead and consequences of their actions are ANC strong points .. crisis, what crisis?
 
House said:
Yes, I did not mention this part for a reason, mainly because I am not 100% what actions they will take. However, the majority of non-tag users will get registered when they start receiving their invoices.

You may still have a minority who will not pay, but they will be dealt with in a number of ways looking at news reports. Once they are taken care of, Sanral will probably achieve their targets and the majority of Gauteng e-Toll road users will be registered.
Click to expand...

Sounds like you are on SANRAL's board trying to calm down foreign investors with those comments and what you said is great in theory, but in reality, human way of thinking, if there is no physical obstacle preventing getting something people will abuse it and try to avoid putting themselves to be worse off... just for example, think if the shop will still be getting the same profits if cashier tills were replaced by card swipping machines (self-service)?
 
Everything it touches turns to etolled

While linking to the licence system will generate a small amount of revenue, it will cause a larger problem, and spread the rot to that system, which has not managed to send out notices for years. On a technical level, my vehicle works just as well whether it is licenced or not. There are already a lot of unlicenced drivers and vehicles out there. Maybe they have chosen the true and noble path, and should be followed? Perhaps it is time to clone plates and licence disk of a more compliant citizen, rather than pay and pay and pay ...
 
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It will be interesting to see how long Sanral can hold out. In essence they would need to struggle till March to not collect before Moody's comes in and screws over their ratings. This will then have horrific consequences for the whole economy and investor confidence as a whole. If the government wasn't that short-sighted, they should have canned it a year ago, paid the penalty and melted down the gantries for other purposes.

I think Sanral's negative contribution to the economy and the various knock-ons will see harsh economic times for many (and we still have to properly "welcome" national pension and national healthcare) towards the middle of next year with plenty of homes going under the hammer.
 
Chris14 said:
Well said House.

The only thing i wonder how is this gonna affect those that are hiring cars. Like in my instance I'm hiring a Polo for the 17-19 Jan 2014 wend.
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I don't think rentals are going to be an issue at all, you will simply pay after you return your car, just like with the kms per day you drove. The rental will have an etag and it will record in detail each gantry you passed through, so i don't see why this would be particularly difficult to figure out and send you a bill. So it's an extra cost.

I suppose rental companies will eventually get more creative and just like they offer x-kms per day "included" , they will simply include a specific prepaid amount to cover etolls.
 
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MagicDude4Eva said:
It will be interesting to see how long Sanral can hold out. In essence they would need to struggle till March to not collect before Moody's comes in and screws over their ratings. This will then have horrific consequences for the whole economy and investor confidence as a whole. If the government wasn't that short-sighted, they should have canned it a year ago, paid the penalty and melted down the gantries for other purposes.

I think Sanral's negative contribution to the economy and the various knock-ons will see harsh economic times for many (and we still have to properly "welcome" national pension and national healthcare) towards the middle of next year with plenty of homes going under the hammer.
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Are SANRALs due payments of the loan and the amounts thereof in the public domain. It would be very interesting to see how much they have to pay next and when. Do they have to publicly publish financial statements?
 
As of today my own car and bike is also tagged. I am getting tired of Outa's ***. Since Outa was formed, they spewed their "doomed to fail" every now and then. Right after their first court case, they said those who bought e-tags should take it back and ask for a refund, e-tolls will never become a reality. Yeah, sure.

Lots of people I know are complaining, I saw none of them at the slow drives and they never donated money to support the court cases, they fight e-tolls on facebook and retweet ***. The one dude does not even have a car, LOL.
 
House said:
I think, once invoices are sent and a non-tagged person, who uses the road on a daily basis gets a R2k invoice that will be the turning point for most. R2k vs R450 and I suspect that is when the large gross of road users will get tagged.

Personally I think that most road users will wait and see if invoices will come. When, and if it does, things will change.
Click to expand...

What makes you think people won't just throw those invoices in the bin like with speeding fines?
 
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