Former Microsoft boss' favourite interview question

[cguy]

The small amount makes the loss insignificant.
And it is irrelevant how he chooses a number if it is once off.

What you say is only really applicable if you plan to run this exercise 100 times and make a profit.

The amount is arbitrary and frequency is purely illustrative. What would you do if this was a million dollars? What would you do if this was as is, but you have to play it a million times? Discussing these configurations, strategies and ways to quantify risk and reward for each are implicitly part of the question.

 

[My_King]

Same type of people who wanted always online and better DRM policies.

 

[rietrot]

The amount is arbitrary and frequency is purely illustrative. What would you do if this was a million dollars? What would you do if this was as is, but you have to play it a million times?

If it was a million dollars I would never play, unless victory is 100% guaranteed and even then I would be really sceptical about what's the catch.

With a large amount of repetitions I would play if the balance of probabilities works out in my favour over time, which doesn't apear to be the case here.

Discussing these configurations, strategies and ways to quantify risk and reward for each are implicitly part of the question.

Sure. If you say so. But it would not be obvious to me in a interview. but I would describe myself as bad at taking interviews.

 

[Aghori]

The first question I always ask in an interview is "What is your reaction if you turn around right now, and there is an unknown man with a sidearm pointed at you?" You have 5 seconds to answer.

The answers will reflect personality, critical thinking, thought processes during stress and planning.

 

[cguy]

If it was a million dollars I would never play, unless victory is 100% guaranteed and even then I would be really sceptical about what's the catch.

With a large amount of repetitions I would play if the balance of probabilities works out in my favour over time, which doesn't apear to be the case here.


Sure. If you say so. But it would not be obvious to me in a interview. but I would describe myself as bad at taking interviews.

Your intuition is mostly correct. In a quantitative interview you would be asked to put hard numbers on it. It would make statistical sense to bet on the first one if you were rich enough, since there is positive expectation, but also a higher chance of losing than winning (but you win more when you win).

The strange thing, is that unless I’ve made a calculation error, 1 million repetitions would give you around $20k of returns. I’m not sure why Balmer suggests this is a loss game.

As for the questions - all of these are designed to lead down some set of paths of discussions and follow up questions. When a candidate branches off into something new and exciting, their chances of getting hired increases immensely.

 

[rietrot]

The first question I always ask in an interview is "What is your reaction if you turn around right now, and there is an unknown man with a sidearm pointed at you?" You have 5 seconds to answer.

The answers will reflect personality, critical thinking, thought processes during stress and planning.

Just another day in SA calmly hand over my phone and wallet.

 

[CataclysmZA]

A big issue is that after being so long in the industry people start to think on a purely technical level and forget the constraints and parameters of the actual field. This is a prime example where the only consideration is what the odds and outcome would be if the most logical method is employed.

If this question was really asked in MSFT interviews, then that explains why they chose to design and build Windows 10 with data-driven analyses, pock-marked by small projects that have a rather niche audience due to their obscurity, rather than actually make something most people would like.

 

[RandomGeek]

Just another day in SA calmly hand over my phone and wallet.

Invite him to parliament, from there he can legally and without violence rob the citizens

 

[MrGray]

He's not trying to (just) figure out whether or not you know an algorithm for a binary search, he's trying to figure out if you realize that this is an adversarial situation, and that if you can guess your opponents strategy, you can do better than a binary search.

Yes, it makes sense if you're trying to hire a wily sociopath who's first instinct is to distrust other's motives and consider every engagement adversarial. In reality, we all know that 99.9% of the people they hire are there to update icons on Outlook every year or re-shuffle the Azure portal menu again.

 

[rietrot]

Yes, it makes sense if you're trying to hire a wily sociopath who's first instinct is to distrust other's motives and consider every engagement adversarial. In reality, we all know that 99.9% of the people they hire are there to update icons on Outlook every year or re-shuffle the Azure portal menu again.

Uhm we are talking upper management here.

They are there to strategize long term.
Which means talk shít in meeting all they. They don't know about icons or menus.

 

[Ninja'd]

42

 

[Willie Trombone]

He doesn't have to to you anything about how he picks the number - it's his question, and it's the candidate who should be cognizant of the fact that random vs non-random selection is a factor. In fact, the real question here is whether or not you are sharp/detail-oriented enough to make that consideration. Only at this point the how comes into it, in the form of the secondary question: a strategy for dealing with the potential adversarial selection.

If that makes you sleep better, then cool.
I stand by my opinion that he's not getting what he thinks he is from the question.

 

[markings]

The question is – do you want to play or not? It is not whether one knows a specific method. The answer for the applicant is either yes or no but is essentially irrelevant because the interviewer gets an answer by watching how much the applicant squirms and tries to figure it out. A follow-up question could be how one arrived at the answer.
However I wonder how many interviewers are qualified to read something significant out of this, which is essentially body language.

 

[ponder]

The question is – do you want to play or not?

Most people seem to have missed this...

It shouldn't take you more than 2 seconds to say 'no'. I'm not interested in your methodology (unless you're psychic), you're wasting my time if you say 'yes'.

 

[cguy]

Yes, it makes sense if you're trying to hire a wily sociopath who's first instinct is to distrust other's motives and consider every engagement adversarial. In reality, we all know that 99.9% of the people they hire are there to update icons on Outlook every year or re-shuffle the Azure portal menu again.

You are literally told it’s adversarial from the beginning: One of you will lose money, the other one will win money.

You really have no clue what happens in companies like Microsoft at all.

 

[cguy]

If that makes you sleep better, then cool.
I stand by my opinion that he's not getting what he thinks he is from the question.

You’re welcome to your own opinion of course, but you should probably be a bit less dismissive of the opinion of those who have actually been on the other side of the table, in the same environment, several thousand times.

 

[cguy]

The question is – do you want to play or not? It is not whether one knows a specific method. The answer for the applicant is either yes or no but is essentially irrelevant because the interviewer gets an answer by watching how much the applicant squirms and tries to figure it out. A follow-up question could be how one arrived at the answer.
However I wonder how many interviewers are qualified to read something significant out of this, which is essentially body language.

You are supposed to walk the interviewer through your reasoning.

 

[Unreal]

Yea that was a waste of time.
He failed to address risk appetite. (he said the answer he wants is for the person to say no)

I know from a mathematical point of view to not play that game, but I also know myself and I am willing to take the risk.

True, entrepreneurs would have a very different take. If I don’t play, I can’t make any money. I might lose money, but I might also make money.
Wait a minute- are entrepreneurs in the same Whataspp group as gamblers
Balmer might be right

 

[cguy]

True, entrepreneurs would have a very different take. If I don’t play, I can’t make any money. I might lose money, but I might also make money.
Wait a minute- are entrepreneurs in the same Whataspp group as gamblers
Balmer might be right

There's a difference between taking a risk with positive expectation, and taking a risk with negative expectation. You will, on average, lose money on the latter. Relating it to entrepreneurism, it's the equivalent of "That sounds like a horrible idea. Let's do it!".

 

[Willie Trombone]

You’re welcome to your own opinion of course, but you should probably be a bit less dismissive of the opinion of those who have actually been on the other side of the table, in the same environment, several thousand times.

On the other side of the table?
LMAO