FX Club

[Jehosefat]

A trade set up often looks great on one timed chart, but then not so great on another - talking more about candles than D/S zones. The person then, of course, works on the better chart and does any calculations on that one.

To me, this it seems odd - it's like warping the facts to fit your argument.

Or is it more a case of, this is not an exact science - you never going to get confirmation across all charts, take what you get and run with it!

That's the problem with anyone "teaching" you how to trade (and by-and-large the problem with technical analysis). They will only ever show you the graphs that support their position and never the ones where it hasn't worked.

Its also usually very easy to identify patterns once they are complete and almost impossible while they are happening.

 

[FxJalarupa]

JUMPIN JEHOSEFAT...! Haters are gonna hate... and Trolls are going to Troll...

But don't let their hate or doubt cloud your view of what is possible...

What I am presenting is the truth... No need to show anything that "Supports" my position... But rather... Factual Price Action... Its all there for you to see with your own two eyes... Hiding in PLAIN SIGHT... so kindly spare us from your "problems with my teaching" and start your own thread about how your feel Technical Analysis has failed you... And stay there, as I show those who are interested how its done... correctly...

Whoooosaaaaahhhhh...!

Let's try this again...

What is Momentum (as per the definition before us?)

Its a large body, or group of large bodies that breakout from a previous high or low... and push further... PRICE WILL THEN RETURN to the origin of SAID breakout... This is a FACT...

Observe... Some technicians use the Fibonacci Retracements to eloquently illustrate this, although the problem with Fib retracements is that those who use them expect precision or an exact match... when such accuracy (although very possible) is unlikely unless you are well versed in the study of market movements...

Consider how long it takes for a commercial pilot to get their pilots license? How many hours they have to log in flight and then think about how long it takes an advocate to get a qualified... Now apply that same commitment to your study and engagement of price action and you too will begin to pick up on the ebb and flow of markets as they BREATHE (because let's face it... Markets are living things)

A Trader Trading Fib Retracements sees the flowing...



When taking the high to the low of a move in price... price GENERALLY turns at the 61.8% retacement point... Its Science B!tch!

My method uses the same principal but in a slightly different way... Which decreases initial accuracy and but increases consistency of being correct by exploiting a simple fact of price action... That fact that price ALWAYS returns to the origin of a Breakout...

Let's ponder this origin of a breakout phenomenon...


H1 Above... Just looking at breakouts and price coming back to the origin of the Breakout...


H4 with H1 Lines... (CAN YOU SEE THE SAME THING HAPPENING ON THE H4? Look Left... If not I'll concede that this is bull***** and that our troll is correct and I'm totally wasting your and MY time by typing this *****, trying to help you become skilled...


Now M15... LOOK at the MOMENTUM breaks and price RETURNING... CAN YOU SEE IT!?

Don't know what a MOMENTUM BREAK LOOKS LIKE?>

MB = MOMENTUM BREAK... Its a High or a Low BEFORE a BURST of MOMENTUM...


Daily CHART... (I know... looks NOTHIN like the patterns above... *Rolls eyes*)

Now we bring this theory of Momentum Back toward Fibonacci we look at ANY retracement back into the MOMENTUM Candle as a opportunity to trade WITH MOMENTUM ... Sounds peculiar? why would you want to do that? (Rolls eyes)



So above we look at anything of a 50% retracement / failing which we look to our MB LINES

NEXT POST

 

[FxJalarupa]

The Above shows the summation of this way of looking at Price Action (PA)

Then we apply our concept of a Line closing above or below... to the MOMENTUM Retracement (MR) Zone as well as the MB Lines... And we say IF PRICE Doesn't Close Beyond these lines or zones... then price is going in the direction of MOMENTUM...

I hope this clarifies the reality of this lesson... it applies on IntraDay so you can literally scalp the living daylights out of it... OR to the Long term where you can bait and wait and wait and wait... and enjoy the benefits of having a position placed on a LARGE TIME FRAME...

- Now... If my readers agree that what I am presenting here has merit... please show your appreciation by liking this thread... otherwise I will take it that I am wasting your time and I will stop posting... because believe it or not, doing this takes time...

 

[FxJalarupa]

A trade set up often looks great on one timed chart, but then not so great on another - talking more about candles than D/S zones. The person then, of course, works on the better chart and does any calculations on that one.

To me, this it seems odd - it's like warping the facts to fit your argument.

Or is it more a case of, this is not an exact science - you never going to get confirmation across all charts, take what you get and run with it!

You never only trade one time frame... Whoever gave you that idea is incorrect... you TRADE a PRICE... and believe it or not BUT PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL TIME FRAMES...

Trading is a exercise in Discretion... NOT an exact science (although I can get pretty close myself - If I have the patience to wait for the right price) - You Feel out price with your tools, test it and strike with the power of proper money management...

Trading at the end of the day is 5% Technical and 95% Money Management... You should be able to be the worst trader in the world technically and still make money because of the way in which you manage a position...

 

[Jehosefat]

Why do I get accused of being a troll every time I voice an opinion? Do you have any idea what a troll actually is? But that's besides the point.

I'm just warning people that they should look at all of these "its so easy to trade and make millions" things with a healthy dose of scepticism. I also firmly believe that if anyone finds a trading strategy that makes money all the time, they would not share it because by sharing it it would change market behaviour and render the strategy ineffective (this is called a "no arbitrage" assumption and while it doesn't hold perfectly all the time its usually really close)

Personally I haven't done much with technical analysis but I know quite a few people who have (I'm a quant at an investment bank so I get exposed to this stuff fairly often). And my general observation is that its absolutely not as easy as you are making it out to be. If it was this easy everyone would have algo trading models making millions...

Not to mention that most strategies are just packed full of all sorts of biases (confirmation and hindsight being the most common in my experience).

So by all means, keep doing what you're doing, I'm not trying to stop you from posting nor have I criticised your teaching style. I'm just voicing what I think are valid concerns with what you are presenting (although the fact that you are this sensitive to even mild criticism says a lot about how confident you are that this actually works in the real world)

 

[FxJalarupa]

Why do I get accused of being a troll every time I voice an opinion? Do you have any idea what a troll actually is? But that's besides the point.

I'm just warning people that they should look at all of these "its so easy to trade and make millions" things with a healthy dose of scepticism. I also firmly believe that if anyone finds a trading strategy that makes money all the time, they would not share it because by sharing it it would change market behaviour and render the strategy ineffective (this is called a "no arbitrage" assumption and while it doesn't hold perfectly all the time its usually really close)

Personally I haven't done much with technical analysis but I know quite a few people who have (I'm a quant at an investment bank so I get exposed to this stuff fairly often). And my general observation is that its absolutely not as easy as you are making it out to be. If it was this easy everyone would have algo trading models making millions...

Not to mention that most strategies are just packed full of all sorts of biases (confirmation and hindsight being the most common in my experience).

So by all means, keep doing what you're doing, I'm not trying to stop you from posting nor have I criticised your teaching style. I'm just voicing what I think are valid concerns with what you are presenting (although the fact that you are this sensitive to even mild criticism says a lot about how confident you are that this actually works in the real world)

The best thing about this Forex Market is the sheer size of it! It makes it very difficult for such trading arbitrage to exploit any one system... there just too many players and varied sizes and motives... Remember not everyone is engaged for profit... many banks are and institutions are hedged because they have to be... BUT besides this, the glaringly obvious reason why this method that I am demonstrating would be so hard to code into a IF/THEN Algo is because it is 100% discretionary... It relies on the trader to study the market and act on what they see... I have not yet been able to teach a computer how to automatically see what I need it to see... There are NO RULES... I AM NOT A SYSTEM TRADER... This is NOT a Get Rich Quick Ticket.... It is a lesson in sight, patience and understanding...

There is no system in trading naked... You see what everyone else sees, but your interpretation of what is going on is FAR superior that what any one of your research analysts will pull when they quoting something like MACD Divergence, MA Crosses or Stochastic/RSI levels...

It is sometimes very difficult for a learned man to understand the inner workings of simplicity... You are too fixated on what you have read in your research papers and books that you have forgotten that there is a lot of value in the form of simplicity... As a Quant you look at the stats and form an opinion on the strength of your data...

How can you fill a cup that is already full... you need to empty the cup and be open to new information... even if it challenges the very core of what you hold dear and near...

I disagree completely with you and I can see that this is probably going to be a continuous theme going forward.... But be that as it may, I look forward to learning from a experienced industry professional like yourself, as much as I'm sure you secretly enjoy logging in to see what this assh0le FxJalarupa has type in his thread now...

My promise to you and to those reading this thread is that I wont hold back, I will teach you what it has taken me through trial and error 8 years to perfect - If anything I would have saved many of you years in errors and mistakes by adopting simple ways of seeing market action for what it truly is... sizing your trades accordingly, managing a loss, managing a profit, leveraging gains effectively...

The most beautiful thing I will eventually show you all is the what I call the physical DNA of the market... It is as far as I can see the closest thing to an actual holy grail in the entire market...

You mind is reeling right now at the notion that I even have the audacity to say the word Holy Grail... But what I have seen is the closest thing to it in my experience... and again... no special $200 indicator or Dashboard, or Robot... Its right there in front of your eyes!!! HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT... If only you had the eyes to see it for yourself...

Maybe one day... Empty the cup... Be Like Water...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APx2yFA0-B4

 

[Papsak]

FX - going to take me a while to absorb all that - looks great. Weirdly enough, it was after you showed me the supply and demand levels that I started noticing these strong candles and started looking at what price did after.

That was when I posted this on the 13th

As to the indicators, just mucking around with an system based on these lessons. early days.

Very crude system, but comparing the momentum candle to the previous 4 candles.

Anyway - will be looking over your notes a few times tomorrow and try get my head around it.

lastly, had watched the ozzie on forex4noobs.com on price action - and he goes through the charts looking for a the best looking chart - and he does pick the best to action on - but as said, d/s level don't change, but of course, candle shapes do. That's where my comment came in about choosing the best chart.

Jehosefat - I understand, as with pretty much anything in this world, it'll take hard work and effort to make this work - and even with that I might not be able to get a system that I can make work, so be it.

 

[FxJalarupa]

...he does pick the best to action on - but as said, d/s level don't change, but of course, candle shapes do. That's where my comment came in about choosing the best chart.

There is something to be said for the eyes... They can play tricks on you, make you see what they want to see... What is there to be seen by looking at this...?

Taking this off of a randomly picked pair that I do not even trade...



Based off of the above joining of candles into a momentum candle of 3x3x3 we get a lovely look at the kind of price action we are trading into... Hence why the market is REALLY struggling to make and huge upward momentum to take out the bulk of the sell orders still sitting to the left...

My point is... You don't need to choose the best time frame or even the best chart... train your eyes to SEE truth... When that happens you will soon realize that timeframes mean squat... There is only price.... Its origin... It's momentum... Its destination that matters... All of which can be made clear by placing a straight line in the right (our about right) place... The rest is all inconsequential... Find momentum and develop staying power to ride out the volatility of being right in price but wrong in time...

 

[FxJalarupa]

Some wondrous confluence is developing on the GBPAUD (amongst other GBP pairs as well)...

Show me that you can SEE it...?

 

[Papsak]

I see two very nice H/S formations that I missed.....

 

[FxJalarupa]

What else¿ Do you see momentum?

 

[FxJalarupa]

There is definitely something to be said for entering on a wick, in the direction of momentum (with a bias of the long term move)...

What's the difficulty?

 

[FxJalarupa]

Got momentum?
Got wick?
Hey profit!

 

[bchip]

Interesting post from Peter Brandt

Could mean some dire things to come for ZAR

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/717674409180286977

 

[Papsak]

H/S - as well as through S zone: Bit of confluence FX ! Happening as well on the au/us - but more defined on the gb/us

 

[Revelator]

Hi,

I registered purely to reply to this post.

First off, thank you FxJalarupa for sacrificing your time and effort for the good of the community. Time is money.

Let me give a quick background on myself before I ask the questions as this may clear up some of my motives.

I spent the better part of my day reading the colossal http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthread.php/629055-The-Proof-is-in-the-Pudding!!-My-Financial-Diary post in the hopes of getting some insight for investment opportunities. I've learned quite a bit from it, but there was nothing to change my current situation as the majority of the posts suggested the same things I've already done.

Luckily I'm in a position where I'm able to live sparse (no dependents) and am able to save / invest a couple thousand a month, but this may not always be the case. Financial instabilities could cause the business to fail at any moment. Truth be told, from my perspective as an employee, it looks like it could be sooner rather than later. Late / partial salaries etc. Thus I'm looking for alternatives to make my money work.

Having saved / invested a little over R100k, it feels like it's going nowhere. Which is not entirely true as I had some growth on the investments, but not nearly enough to be feasible should I lose my job. 12% yearly gain on investments is good, but it just won't cut it.

Back on topic:

A few years back I tested the FX waters for the first time (demo account) and made some easy profit. As a software engineer I wrote a few indicators of my own and a few EA. None of which turned a constant profit of course. It's not easy to make a computer see what you see, to understand as you do - even if you make a living doing just that. I lost interest due to lack of time and volatility of the market. Figured I'd never try it again, it's a gamble and nothing more.

That is - until I stumbled across this post. You've given me reason to try it again.

I do have a few questions for you though, if you don't mind. Given my circumstances - I hope you understand why I may need to learn out of necessity rather than curiosity.

1. Do you have a day job, or do you make a living solely from FX?

2. How much time do you invest into FX daily? Can it be done after hours?

3. I realize the money management lesson is yet to come, but how much capital would you need to make a living from FX?

 

[bchip]

Hi,
A few years back I tested the FX waters for the first time (demo account) and made some easy profit. As a software engineer I wrote a few indicators of my own and a few EA. None of which turned a constant profit of course. It's not easy to make a computer see what you see, to understand as you do - even if you make a living doing just that. I lost interest due to lack of time and volatility of the market. Figured I'd never try it again, it's a gamble and nothing more.

Hi,

1. Do you have a day job, or do you make a living solely from FX?

2. How much time do you invest into FX daily? Can it be done after hours?

3. I realize the money management lesson is yet to come, but how much capital would you need to make a living from FX?

Im not an FX trader, although I do trade, sometimes FX amongst it, although I think I can add
to these questions.

Firstly regarding systems, they are not constant profits, thats how ALL of them work.
You are applying a constant set of rules on a dynamic environment,
kinda like saying "Thank you" to all questions is a good thing, but in certain circumstances it will backfire.
You need to let them run over a longer period.

On that note, it does not sound like you are in a position to trade full time.
By my calculations you need at least R 5mil to trade full time.
You NEVER trade with your full amount of savings, I say R5mil because you need a big portion of
it in other investments. Trading with ALL your cash will kill you emotionally (been there lost the T-shirt).
I traded a system that made over a 100% per annum and still didnt get it right due to incorrect capital management.

Now I focus on making sure my bills are always covered first and trade with the rest.
To do that I have to work in the day and have found ways around it so that I dont need to sit infront of a screen all day.
- You can do this either through EOD charts trading or my alternative was robots.

Which leads me to...do you realize you have a skill that you can use?
If youve got some good experience with writing code for EAs have you thought of using that skill?
Ie selling your time to build EAs for others and charging them for your time.


My big point that Im trying to get across is that trading must always be with an account thats
a small % of your net asset value, so (eg) if your worth R 100,000 then you can only trade with R 15,000
Getting a 10% return per month every month is very good result, so that equates to R 15k * 10% = R 1,500 per month

If your account is too large you will withdraw too much from your "emotional capital" and you will lose it all
in the end, guaranteed.

 

[Papsak]

I have only been looking into this for the last 3 months - so very much a newbie.

Before even thinking of ditching the day job you need to find, then test, a system that works for you. That could take a while, if ever. I am still skeptical - but maybe slightly less so these days - but my personality might not be suited to trading.

But from reading and seeing guys on you tube - 4/5% per month is achievable without being glued to your monitor 24/7 and never risking more than 2% per trade and doing 1 -3 trades per week.

 

[Pho3nix]

While I'm not posting. Really finding this thread very informative

 

[FxJalarupa]

I have been blessed to work in an industry that I love... So for me work is not something to escape, it is part of trading and trading is part of work...

I took 2 years off to trade the market exclusively and was successful in my endeavor, but trading is a lonely game and my wife literally told me that she would fire me if I didn't get out of the house... So I took a job in the financial services industry that affords me the time and relevance to pursue trading whilst still being able to offer my expertise to my employer and the people that I work with...

I currently manage a closed fund for family and close friends

The bulk of my trading happens over days/weeks and is managed by software that affords me the opportunity to not have to be glued to the screens... (2 years everyday for 10 hours a day was enough of that... I've grown wiser for it though)

How much do you need to quit work? Well I'd say at least $200k

When I was trading from home I had $15k that I turned into $150k but that was probably the hardest I have ever worked in my life and caused great stress to my family and myself... I now just trade when I SEE something that is certain... Rather than trying to squeeze every last drop out of the market, I let the market reward me for being aloof...

My experience has taught me that we have great power inside of ourselves...

It's very difficult to drop everything on a slim chance of success... But the experience gained will hopefully be worth it...

If you going to try drop out of the private sector to do this you need to down scale and deleverage aggressively, find an alternative source of income, build a professional space of calm and focus and be ready for sleepless nights and doubts and all the demons that will come... It takes serious guts to do this especially if you have other souls to look after... I have tried it and I feel I'll go back to it again full time when I'm in my 40's... Older, hopefully wiser and more liquid...