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Gold - How Far Will It Go..
- Thread starter empirex
- Start date
Cius
Honorary Master
Romney won't win firstly, Its very rare of a US president to not win a second term. You have to pull a Nixon to manage that. Secondly the US can't tie back to gold, not with that much debt. It would kill them in less than a year as it would stop them printing money so freely.
Anyways, about 3 years back I think China started telling its people to stock up on Gold and other hard metals. I can only think this was because they knew what was coming. Having it all in hard currency will mean after the storm they are the only one's holding significant reserves to capitalize in the new economy. Strangely enough I think SA will do well in that scenario as well due to how much gold and especially platinum we have.
Anyways, about 3 years back I think China started telling its people to stock up on Gold and other hard metals. I can only think this was because they knew what was coming. Having it all in hard currency will mean after the storm they are the only one's holding significant reserves to capitalize in the new economy. Strangely enough I think SA will do well in that scenario as well due to how much gold and especially platinum we have.
Spot on. It's too late for that.
Well we're about 29th on the list of gold holdings but I'm hoping we have a little more stored away... for rainy days
Pretty sure China has a lot more than what is listed there as well, about double the amount. And the USA has a lot less than indicated.
1 United States of America 8,133.5 76.6%
2 Federal Republic of Germany 3,396.3 73.7%
3 International Monetary Fund 2,814.0 N.A.
4 Italian Republic 2,451.8 73.4%
5 French Republic 2,435.4 71.8%
6 People's Republic of China 1,054.1 1.8%
7 Swiss Confederation 1,040.1 15.3%
8 Russian Federation 883.2 9.2%
9 Japan 765.2 3.5%
10 Kingdom of the Netherlands 612.5 61.9%
11 Republic of India 557.7 9.6%
12 European Central Bank 502.1 35.0%
13 Republic of China (Taiwan) 422.4 5.9%
14 Portuguese Republic 382.5 89.2%
15 Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 372.9 67.7%
16 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 322.9 3.3%
17 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 310.3 17.6%
18 Republic of Lebanon 286.8 32.2%
19 Kingdom of Spain 281.6 39.2%
20 Republic of Austria 280.0 57.0%
21 Republic of Turkey 240.0[13] 12.8%
22 Kingdom of Belgium 227.5 41.2%
23 People's Democratic Republic of Algeria 173.6 79.5%
24 Kingdom of Thailand 152.4 4.6%
25 Libya 143.8 5.6%
26 Republic of the Philippines 142.7 10.4%
27 Republic of Singapore 127.4 3.0%
28 Kingdom of Sweden 125.7 13.6%
29 Republic of South Africa 125.0 13.8%
Agreed.
Romney won't win, I thought it might be close but since Romney and pals have snubbed the libertarian wing of the party, many of them either won't vote or will switch and vote for Gary Johnson. The wing is big enough to be a nuisance and lose Romney the election.
Secondly the US is not likely to return to the gold standard, I think the current party talks are simply to try and appease those conservative/libertarian members calling for a return to gold, and not to actually try and return to the standard.
Also if it did happen the gold price in dollars will sky rocket, in order for gold to back the current $ amount in circulation it would be between $25k-50k per ounce http://mises.co.za/blog/2012/09/05/bloomberg-does-not-understand-the-gold-standard/
With regards to the gold price, there are countless factors to name that influence the gold price and affect currencies.
I don't think the gold price will skyrocket UNLESS the dollar is removed as the world's reserve currency and/or massive inflation/hyperinflation (Which will amount to the US not being the reserve currency as well) hits.
The question is:
- Will QE3 come (I.E. Will the FED print more?)
- Will that money being printed enter circulation or will banks, continue doing what they are currently doing which is to simply re-deposit their cash with the FED at 0% and even -% yields, if that is the case then I cannot see any massive inflation or hyperinflation coming unless new cash is being loaned out and used by people.
- What will sentiment towards the stability of the US, it's currency, it's economy be, considering its own internal policies, spending etc. and how will the world economy, China's bubble, Europe etc. impact the US?
No person/model/government can predict the future...above are some of the major influences but there are so many minor/other things people should consider when trying to plan for the future it makes it very difficult...bottom line is that uncertainty, generally speaking is good for the gold price.
PS: Some, person (I would use a less PC term but got to watch language no days) said the gold price is "volatile" at present which is complete nonsense...the dollar and other currencies world wide is where the volatility is, gold, its uses etc. it's demand changes in line with THOSE drivers, not in and of itself. So look at stability and $ and other major currencies...
Romney won't win, I thought it might be close but since Romney and pals have snubbed the libertarian wing of the party, many of them either won't vote or will switch and vote for Gary Johnson. The wing is big enough to be a nuisance and lose Romney the election.
Secondly the US is not likely to return to the gold standard, I think the current party talks are simply to try and appease those conservative/libertarian members calling for a return to gold, and not to actually try and return to the standard.
Also if it did happen the gold price in dollars will sky rocket, in order for gold to back the current $ amount in circulation it would be between $25k-50k per ounce http://mises.co.za/blog/2012/09/05/bloomberg-does-not-understand-the-gold-standard/
With regards to the gold price, there are countless factors to name that influence the gold price and affect currencies.
I don't think the gold price will skyrocket UNLESS the dollar is removed as the world's reserve currency and/or massive inflation/hyperinflation (Which will amount to the US not being the reserve currency as well) hits.
The question is:
- Will QE3 come (I.E. Will the FED print more?)
- Will that money being printed enter circulation or will banks, continue doing what they are currently doing which is to simply re-deposit their cash with the FED at 0% and even -% yields, if that is the case then I cannot see any massive inflation or hyperinflation coming unless new cash is being loaned out and used by people.
- What will sentiment towards the stability of the US, it's currency, it's economy be, considering its own internal policies, spending etc. and how will the world economy, China's bubble, Europe etc. impact the US?
No person/model/government can predict the future...above are some of the major influences but there are so many minor/other things people should consider when trying to plan for the future it makes it very difficult...bottom line is that uncertainty, generally speaking is good for the gold price.
PS: Some, person (I would use a less PC term but got to watch language no days) said the gold price is "volatile" at present which is complete nonsense...the dollar and other currencies world wide is where the volatility is, gold, its uses etc. it's demand changes in line with THOSE drivers, not in and of itself. So look at stability and $ and other major currencies...
Last edited:
Cius
Honorary Master
China has a few minor bubbles but they are mostly rock solid. Their property bubble is the most dangerous and it is slowly sorting itself out. Their economy is however based on very good foundations. They add value.
Their are 3 levels to an economy. Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary. A brief description of each:
Primary: Agriculture, mining, basic type stuff is where the primary economy is. Its mostly about commodities be that food or mineral commodities. SA is huge here, so is China. Low value stuff though. You don't get much money out of taking stuff out of the ground. You do employ lots of people though so its good to be strong here.
Secondary economy: Manufacturing is where this is. This is where true value lies. A ton of steel is worth a little. A ton of steal turned into a BMW is worth 100 times that. The strongest economies in the world have based their economies here. Japan, Germany, China more recently, South Korea, and in the past the USA. SA incidentally has very little here.
Tertiary economy: Your financial sector lives here as do services. This sector should be supporting and financing the other two. In the US however somehow this sector has become by far the biggest segment via them outsourcing these services to the world. Movies, Music, Financial services and consulting, food chains, transport companies like UPS and Fedex, etc make the US great. China has a reasonably good Tertiary sector heavily influenced by Government. SA also has an incredibly strong Tertiary sector which is odd seeing as we have such a week Secondary sector.
Places like England are great case studies of what happens when you strengthen your currency and quality of life so much that you begin to outsource all your manufacturing. Your tertiary sector grows but it does not generate high employment so government picks up the slack. The issue is the government does not create money with employment, it draws it from the private sector via tax. Hence a grossly inflated government or high unemployment always follows a collapse in the secondary economy. Its why portions of England are completely bankrupt now that used to be massive factory areas. There is a good youtube movie on this called "Brittan's trillion pound horror story." That movie still misses the point on why it all happened. It was more about the pound strengthening than government wanting to be that big. The politicians are always desperate to drop unemployment when it goes up so they hire people into government. They are not solving any long term issues though when they do that.
The Chinese economy has it good, very strong fundamentals in terms of their primary and secondary economy and even their tertiary economy is very effective at supporting the bottom two. The US however unless it manages to stimulate manufacturing is screwed. They still make a lot of weapons via their huge defence budget which buys local for strategic reasons but their car sector is dying and most manufacturing is gone from the US outsourced to China. Their secondary economy is in its death throws and hence unemployment and its issues are now really settled in. Government grew a lot to try alleviate that issue but that has also created other issues. The USD being the world's reserve currency is both helping and hurting the US right now. If they did stop being the reserve currency in the short term they will take pain but in the long term they can devalue their currency to a more reasonable level and that will stimulate manufacturing within the US which will help in the long term. Still, the US is used to its consumer lifestyle so I don't see it happening any time soon. Gold is all just a symptom of this much larger problem.
Their are 3 levels to an economy. Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary. A brief description of each:
Primary: Agriculture, mining, basic type stuff is where the primary economy is. Its mostly about commodities be that food or mineral commodities. SA is huge here, so is China. Low value stuff though. You don't get much money out of taking stuff out of the ground. You do employ lots of people though so its good to be strong here.
Secondary economy: Manufacturing is where this is. This is where true value lies. A ton of steel is worth a little. A ton of steal turned into a BMW is worth 100 times that. The strongest economies in the world have based their economies here. Japan, Germany, China more recently, South Korea, and in the past the USA. SA incidentally has very little here.
Tertiary economy: Your financial sector lives here as do services. This sector should be supporting and financing the other two. In the US however somehow this sector has become by far the biggest segment via them outsourcing these services to the world. Movies, Music, Financial services and consulting, food chains, transport companies like UPS and Fedex, etc make the US great. China has a reasonably good Tertiary sector heavily influenced by Government. SA also has an incredibly strong Tertiary sector which is odd seeing as we have such a week Secondary sector.
Places like England are great case studies of what happens when you strengthen your currency and quality of life so much that you begin to outsource all your manufacturing. Your tertiary sector grows but it does not generate high employment so government picks up the slack. The issue is the government does not create money with employment, it draws it from the private sector via tax. Hence a grossly inflated government or high unemployment always follows a collapse in the secondary economy. Its why portions of England are completely bankrupt now that used to be massive factory areas. There is a good youtube movie on this called "Brittan's trillion pound horror story." That movie still misses the point on why it all happened. It was more about the pound strengthening than government wanting to be that big. The politicians are always desperate to drop unemployment when it goes up so they hire people into government. They are not solving any long term issues though when they do that.
The Chinese economy has it good, very strong fundamentals in terms of their primary and secondary economy and even their tertiary economy is very effective at supporting the bottom two. The US however unless it manages to stimulate manufacturing is screwed. They still make a lot of weapons via their huge defence budget which buys local for strategic reasons but their car sector is dying and most manufacturing is gone from the US outsourced to China. Their secondary economy is in its death throws and hence unemployment and its issues are now really settled in. Government grew a lot to try alleviate that issue but that has also created other issues. The USD being the world's reserve currency is both helping and hurting the US right now. If they did stop being the reserve currency in the short term they will take pain but in the long term they can devalue their currency to a more reasonable level and that will stimulate manufacturing within the US which will help in the long term. Still, the US is used to its consumer lifestyle so I don't see it happening any time soon. Gold is all just a symptom of this much larger problem.
OMB
Mountain Man
went over $1730, the jump took place just after 14:00
any global economic news we should know about?
any global economic news we should know about?
Thanks, missed that.
OMB
Mountain Man
$1733 now
Job numbers from the US came out.
Some of them are quite scary, average time spent by someone looking for a job, before they find one is 39 weeks now.
OMB
Mountain Man
ended off at $1735 for the day
So who's gonna jump on board the gold train over the weekend period
Is it going to continue up, or has it reached it's apex..
CARTEL DUMPS 1.5 X US ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION ON FUTURES MARKET IN 5 MINUTES
CARTEL DUMPS 1.5 X US ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION ON FUTURES MARKET IN 5 MINUTES ON NFP RELEASE
In an attempt to flash-smash silver and prevent a weekly close above the critical $35 level, the cartel dumped an estimated 51 MILLION OUNCES of paper silver on the futures market in only 5 minutes on this morning’s non-farm payrolls release between 8:30 and 8:35 AM EST.
Net Dania’s spot silver chart, which is not a precise futures volume measure but approximates the volume, indicates nearly 10,500 contracts were dumped in a span of merely 5 minutes, and half of those were dumped in a span of 2 minutes between 8:30 and 8:32am EST.
More
CARTEL DUMPS 1.5 X US ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION ON FUTURES MARKET IN 5 MINUTES ON NFP RELEASE
In an attempt to flash-smash silver and prevent a weekly close above the critical $35 level, the cartel dumped an estimated 51 MILLION OUNCES of paper silver on the futures market in only 5 minutes on this morning’s non-farm payrolls release between 8:30 and 8:35 AM EST.
Net Dania’s spot silver chart, which is not a precise futures volume measure but approximates the volume, indicates nearly 10,500 contracts were dumped in a span of merely 5 minutes, and half of those were dumped in a span of 2 minutes between 8:30 and 8:32am EST.
More
