Caster Semenya and the IAAF: if the science is wrong, the ruling is wrong
The case is complex but demanding some female athletes lower their testosterone levels was a big call, yet seems to be a debatable conclusion to reach based on a questionable study
Before we begin to address the critiques of their motives, to wrangle with the complicated questions about the ethics of fairness, the IAAF has to prove the science supports its case this time. And, judging by what is publicly available, it can’t.
Last year the IAAF released a key study, which found that female athletes with higher levels of testosterone had an advantage in five events, the 400m, 400m hurdles, 800m, hammer throw, and pole vault. And that study, which underpins these new regulations, now looks deeply flawed. Andrew Gelman, Higgins professor of statistics at Columbia University, described the analysis as “such a mess that I can’t really figure out what data they are working with, what exactly they are doing, or the connection between some of their analyses and their scientific goals”.
Gelman is a rare voice in all this, one without any emotional investment, or even an interest in the sport. His only concern is the work. And he found it lacking. The IAAF says that this was only one paper, and that its case is bolstered by a body of confidential data. But still, after 15 years of study, its very best public evidence was debunked within weeks of its release