Is the ANC split lining up along Tribal lines?

LazyLion

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I have not seen anyone in the news addressing this, but it seems to me that the Zuma camp are mostly Zulus, and the newly devloping ANC rebel party are mostly Xhosa (Cape and Eastern Cape). I dunno where the Sotho sit in all of this... but anyway. Could this be the start of Tribal warfare, or civil war in South Africa... a la... Rwanda and Kenya? :(

Edit: please don't turn this into a racist thread, even though it discusses issues of tribalism. Thanks.
 
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Albereth

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Perhaps the Tutu not voting thread got hijacked but there has already been a chunk of tribal discussion there.
 

JungleBoy

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I have not seen anyone in the news addressing this, but it seems to me that the Zuma camp are mostly Zulus, and the newly devloping ANC rebel party are mostly Xhosa (Cape and Eastern Cape). I dunno where the Sotho sit in all of this... but anyway. Could this be the start of Tribal warfare, or civil war in South Africa... a la... Rwanda and Kenya? :(

Edit: please don't turn this into a racist thread, even though it discusses issues of tribalism. Thanks.

Baleka Mbete, Gwede Mantashe, Zwelinzima Vavi, Fikile Mbalula, Mcebisi Skwatsha are Xhosa and are known as the kingpins in the Zuma camp. There are also many other non Zulu people behind the Zuma camp as well e.g. Phosa, Sexwale, Motlante, etc.
Lekota on the other other hand is Sotho (If I'm not mistaken). The fact that he started his meetings in the Xhosa dominated areas does not mean the rebel ANC would be Xhosa dominated. In fact he targeted areas that already showed signs of divisions. He is mainly capitalising on the bitterness of the people that have since been voted out positions (like himself). There's nothing tribal about Lekota's revolution even though tribalism (100% Zulu boy t-shirts) is amongst his list of grievances.
 

LazyLion

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Baleka Mbete, Gwede Mantashe, Zwelinzima Vavi, Fikile Mbalula, Mcebisi Skwatsha are Xhosa and are known as the kingpins in the Zuma camp. There are also many other non Zulu people behind the Zuma camp as well e.g. Phosa, Sexwale, Motlante, etc.
Lekota on the other other hand is Sotho (If I'm not mistaken). The fact that he started his meetings in the Xhosa dominated areas does not mean the rebel ANC would be Xhosa dominated. In fact he targeted areas that already showed signs of divisions. He is mainly capitalising on the bitterness of the people that have since been voted out positions (like himself). There's nothing tribal about Lekota's revolution even though tribalism (100% Zulu boy t-shirts) is amongst his list of grievances.

ok, I see. That is interesting! You know a lot more about these guys than I do. I'm glad to hear it though. I don't want SA to go through what other African countries have and still are going through.
 

Syndyre

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Baleka Mbete, Gwede Mantashe, Zwelinzima Vavi, Fikile Mbalula, Mcebisi Skwatsha are Xhosa and are known as the kingpins in the Zuma camp. There are also many other non Zulu people behind the Zuma camp as well e.g. Phosa, Sexwale, Motlante, etc.
Lekota on the other other hand is Sotho (If I'm not mistaken). The fact that he started his meetings in the Xhosa dominated areas does not mean the rebel ANC would be Xhosa dominated. In fact he targeted areas that already showed signs of divisions. He is mainly capitalising on the bitterness of the people that have since been voted out positions (like himself). There's nothing tribal about Lekota's revolution even though tribalism (100% Zulu boy t-shirts) is amongst his list of grievances.

Interesting, thanks.
 

sox63

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Baleka Mbete, Gwede Mantashe, Zwelinzima Vavi, Fikile Mbalula, Mcebisi Skwatsha are Xhosa and are known as the kingpins in the Zuma camp. There are also many other non Zulu people behind the Zuma camp as well e.g. Phosa, Sexwale, Motlante, etc.
Lekota on the other other hand is Sotho (If I'm not mistaken). The fact that he started his meetings in the Xhosa dominated areas does not mean the rebel ANC would be Xhosa dominated. In fact he targeted areas that already showed signs of divisions. He is mainly capitalising on the bitterness of the people that have since been voted out positions (like himself). There's nothing tribal about Lekota's revolution even though tribalism (100% Zulu boy t-shirts) is amongst his list of grievances.

I agree, there is nothing tribal about this. As for Lekota's beef with the shirts, he said it was seen as encouraging tribalism which the freedom charter and the ANC constitution do not tolerate.
 

brixton tower

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Baleka Mbete, Gwede Mantashe, Zwelinzima Vavi, Fikile Mbalula, Mcebisi Skwatsha are Xhosa and are known as the kingpins in the Zuma camp. There are also many other non Zulu people behind the Zuma camp as well e.g. Phosa, Sexwale, Motlante, etc.
Lekota on the other other hand is Sotho (If I'm not mistaken). The fact that he started his meetings in the Xhosa dominated areas does not mean the rebel ANC would be Xhosa dominated. In fact he targeted areas that already showed signs of divisions. He is mainly capitalising on the bitterness of the people that have since been voted out positions (like himself). There's nothing tribal about Lekota's revolution even though tribalism (100% Zulu boy t-shirts) is amongst his list of grievances.

Good post. The charges of tribal divisions in the ANC are unfounded if one looks at the current conflict.
 

Bubbilicious

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No, the ANC split is based on loyalty - Zuma camp vs Mbeki camp. It will be interesting to see what stance Thabo Mbeki takes on this. If he supports the current ANC then this breakaway faction will die fast as his supporters will see that he has forgiven his rivals and most will follow his example. If he supports the breakaway party then the Zuma Camp are going to be really worried. They will either react by inciting violence (in the background of course) or pretend to be unfazed or both. Interesting but worrying times for this election.
 

LazyLion

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No, the ANC split is based on loyalty - Zuma camp vs Mbeki camp. It will be interesting to see what stance Thabo Mbeki takes on this. If he supports the current ANC then this breakaway faction will die fast as his supporters will see that he has forgiven his rivals and most will follow his example. If he supports the breakaway party then the Zuma Camp are going to be really worried. They will either react by inciting violence (in the background of course) or pretend to be unfazed or both. Interesting but worrying times for this election.

thats the bit I am worried about. With clowns like Malema around, he might just make good on his kill for Zuma promise.
 

CTSA

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First! The two guys behind the new party are not Xhosa! Shilowa is Venda (or Tsonga/Northern Sotho cuz he's from Limpopo, not too sure) and Lekota is Southern Sotho! There are many Zulus supporting Mbeki and the new party. And there are many Xhosas supporting Zuma (ie Mbalula and Yengeni). President Motlanthe is Tswana btw. Before the 1994 elections it was an inter-party conflict with IFP supporters (Zulu) against ANC supporters (which were also Zulu, among others), not inter-tribal. In South Africa it has always been a matter of politics not tribes. The current conflict we're seeing is capitalism v communism/socialism (as Shilowa stated this morning), not Xhosa v Zulu! I hate sensationalist statements which negatively affect our country!!!
 

Zenbaas

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First! The two guys behind the new party are not Xhosa! Shilowa is Venda (or Tsonga/Northern Sotho cuz he's from Limpopo, not too sure) and Lekota is Southern Sotho! There are many Zulus supporting Mbeki and the new party. And there are many Xhosas supporting Zuma (ie Mbalula and Yengeni). President Motlanthe is Tswana btw. Before the 1994 elections it was an inter-party conflict with IFP supporters (Zulu) against ANC supporters (which were also Zulu, among others), not inter-tribal. In South Africa it has always been a matter of politics not tribes. The current conflict we're seeing is capitalism v communism/socialism (as Shilowa stated this morning), not Xhosa v Zulu! I hate sensationalist statements which negatively affect our country!!!

Just breathe...its all gonna be alright, i promise ;)
 

dlk001

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First! The two guys behind the new party are not Xhosa! Shilowa is Venda (or Tsonga/Northern Sotho cuz he's from Limpopo, not too sure) and Lekota is Southern Sotho! There are many Zulus supporting Mbeki and the new party. And there are many Xhosas supporting Zuma (ie Mbalula and Yengeni). President Motlanthe is Tswana btw. Before the 1994 elections it was an inter-party conflict with IFP supporters (Zulu) against ANC supporters (which were also Zulu, among others), not inter-tribal. In South Africa it has always been a matter of politics not tribes. The current conflict we're seeing is capitalism v communism/socialism (as Shilowa stated this morning), not Xhosa v Zulu! I hate sensationalist statements which negatively affect our country!!!

The facts are there, yet we hear stories about 'tribal lines' etc.
 

LazyLion

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First! The two guys behind the new party are not Xhosa! Shilowa is Venda (or Tsonga/Northern Sotho cuz he's from Limpopo, not too sure) and Lekota is Southern Sotho! There are many Zulus supporting Mbeki and the new party. And there are many Xhosas supporting Zuma (ie Mbalula and Yengeni). President Motlanthe is Tswana btw. Before the 1994 elections it was an inter-party conflict with IFP supporters (Zulu) against ANC supporters (which were also Zulu, among others), not inter-tribal. In South Africa it has always been a matter of politics not tribes. The current conflict we're seeing is capitalism v communism/socialism (as Shilowa stated this morning), not Xhosa v Zulu! I hate sensationalist statements which negatively affect our country!!!

Dude! Take a chill pill. Nobody made any statements. I asked a question... and somebody else answered it for me. Its gonna be ok. I promise.
 

marine1

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What about whenever the ANC open their mouths? They make statements like that all day every day.
 

CTSA

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Just breathe...its all gonna be alright, i promise ;)
Dude! Take a chill pill. Nobody made any statements. I asked a question... and somebody else answered it for me. Its gonna be ok. I promise.

Hahaha, sorry. I just heard these theories way too many times these past few weeks. Really getting to me now lol. A guy from UBS was sending this stupid rumour to investors, which really ticked me off! That's what I meant by sensationalist remarks which negatively affect our country. If investors get the wrong impression of our country who's gonna suffer, we are! I just hope investors are smart enough to actually research what they read, be smart ;) I'll post up the message so you guys can see how stupid it is...
 

CTSA

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Sorry this is not the whole report, but I don't have the rest of it...

This briefing note from UBS will interest some of you guys. It details how global investment banks are advising their clients in the light of the political upheaval. Basically most investment banks are now sending clients notes putting SA on serious risk watch. This is very very bad news for a country with our current account issues.

UBS Equity Derivatives Macro Sales Ideas / Sales Thoughts (44 20 7568 8014) - Tuesday September 9 2008.

"I am very worried that the new party alternative to the ANC may and play the race card. The ANC leadership of the past 40 plus years has been dominated by members of the Xhosa tribe. The largest tribal association in the country is Zulu. Under apartheid, the National Party attempted to splinter black opposition to the government by dividing the country up into "tribal" blocs and playing each off against other. In particular it tried to foster a spirit of Zulu nationalism which it hoped would prove antithetical to supposed Xhosa ANC domination. This process led up to the incredible inter-tribal violence just ahead of the first free elections in the country which saw pitched battles between Zulu speakers (abetted by various right wing elements in the white security services) and ANC supporters. It is to the ruling party's great credit that post the election these inter-tribal rivalries have almost completely been resolved - even though the Presidency has remained in Xhosa hands. A large degree of this credit must be attributed to Mr. Zuma who comes from a rural Zulu background. His mass popularity in the Zulu heartlands has helped dissolve almost all anti ANC tendencies in his home province.
But the new alternative party to the Zuma led ANC may consider that its best chance of achieving mass support is to position itself as the traditional wing of the ANC. One the is close to the parties heritage - a heritage that subtly or unsubtly could be expressed as supportive of Xhosa interests. I hope I'm wrong here, but once again African history has a rather grim set of precedents. Liberation parties have often fallen apart on a tribal basis and the ANC may well do the same.

To sum up, a split ANC worries me a lot. President elect Zuma already had a number of issues that were dragging him towards the left. His increasingly influential allies in the SACP and COSATU are urging a more populist approach and he knows that the mass of black South Africans have not enjoyed the benefits of BEE that have enriched a few favoured comrades. Now with a potential rival he is likely to try and mobilise mass support by espousing populist policies. As for the opposition, I believe that there is a real chance that they will try and position themselves as the heir to the ANC's Xhosa led traditions whilst portraying Mr. Zuma as the leader of a Zulu party.
However you view it - and there is no doubt that Mr. Mbeki was a bad President - current political events in South Africa are worrying. When we stop fearing that the world is ending and start looking at investment opportunities with a little more definition I suspect that we will look at the political situation in South Africa and realise the risks that it brings to investing in the country"
 

joebloggs

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"A guy from UBS was sending this stupid rumour to investors, which really ticked me off! That's what I meant by sensationalist remarks which negatively affect our country. If investors get the wrong impression of our country who's gonna suffer, we are!"

If I read the letter from the UBS it raises legitimate questions about the political situation in SA. So what in the letter is "stupid rumour" that should "get you really ticked off"?

Any person investing money anywhere should consider all the facts that could materially affect his investment. And the questions asked by the UBS letter seriously affect any investment, irrespective of where it is made.

Investors should not operate on the principle of the three monkeys ("near nothing" "see nothing" "say nothing". They should ask questions, and get answers.

Now to the letter - and its real implicit question - what happens in a post-liberation phase. there are two worrying issues at hand. One is the possible issue of tribalism and it's use in a power struggle. And secondly what about all the loosers of BEE - ie the mass of the poor blacks. Because lets face one fact. We are talking about millions of poor, largely illiterate people who are still at the bottom of the scale. Each one of these poeple is a voter. So they are the key to power!

And who see that their comrades have pulled in millions in personal gain and enrichment. So now the baddies are not the apartheid-whites any more, but the profiteurs of BEE.

Will the rivaling fractions use dirty methods to keep or achieve their status - you bet they will. And that includes tribalism and "bad rich people". And now the "bad rich people" are no longer just apartheid whites.

Think about it.
 
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