JSE All Share Index

would seriously be looking to buy right now, and although it may get worse, this may very well be a bottom. also to not the dow is considered in a bear market. thing is that buffet thinks things could get worse. i think that this may be a good for long timers


ppl are expecting a iran war, and thats why oil prices are high, if the iran war is finished or we get rid of oil, markets will rally.

there may also be a time where people may realize that war is already completely factored in to the market, and that may also give it a rise .

opinions?
 
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It should be a good time to buy, and I am considering it - I'm in it for the long term, so even if it doesn't recover for a while I should be okay.

What worries me isn't that the JSE won't recover, because these things are cyclical and this does happen. What worries me is that the economy won't recover (and hence the JSE won't either). Not to be another Zim 2.0 poster, but *if* things went the way of Zim, investments in the SA stock market would lose their value.
 
This pyramid scheme only kicks in when enough people can be convinced to buy in.
When enough people are fooled, it's called a Bull run, and people can be trampled in the buying frenzy, much like that other bull run in some far away country.
The trick is to get in just before the bull run.

Problem is .. if there are not enough people who actually have cash lying about .. then it aint gonna happen.
 
CathJ said:
It should be a good time to buy, and I am considering it - I'm in it for the long term, so even if it doesn't recover for a while I should be okay.

What worries me isn't that the JSE won't recover, because these things are cyclical and this does happen. What worries me is that the economy won't recover (and hence the JSE won't either). Not to be another Zim 2.0 poster, but *if* things went the way of Zim, investments in the SA stock market would lose their value.
Click to expand...

ALSI just dropped below 28k at 27,991 now.
How low can it go is the question...
 
alf101 said:
ALSI just dropped below 28k at 27,991 now.
How low can it go is the question...
Click to expand...

Ooh, I hadn't seen that. That's not good.

(BTW, sorry for the double post above, must have hit submit twice or something).
 
CathJ said:
Ooh, I hadn't seen that. That's not good.

(BTW, sorry for the double post above, must have hit submit twice or something).
Click to expand...

It was on 30,413 on 30 June.

Here's the last year
31/07/2007 28,562
31/08/2007 28,660
30/09/2007 29,959
31/10/2007 31,335
30/11/2007 30,308
31/12/2007 28,958
31/01/2008 27,317
29/02/2008 30,674
31/03/2008 29,588
30/04/2008 30,743
31/05/2008 31,841
30/06/2008 30,413
31/07/2008 28,172 (Friday)
Click to expand...
 
alf101 said:
ALSI just dropped below 28k at 27,991 now.
How low can it go is the question...
Click to expand...
Technical Analysis Research at Standard Bank's Online Share Trading reckons 26060 is a key level, if breached could signal further downside to the 21760 mark.
The JSE All Share Index is currently trading at a PE (Price Earnings Ratio) of about 14 times, the last time I looked. Not too expensive, but if the forward outlook is pointing to a slowing in the economy then this price could actually be deemed demanding.
Take into account that all the Stock Markets are coming off quite high bases. What is alarming is the key level of about 12000 on the Dow which was broken.
In South Africa I am concerned about the big Resource Stocks like Anglo, Billiton and MTN which have all had fairly good runs where investors are probably taking profits at this point in time. The other concern I have is Impala Platinum which has taken a beating the last week - and I think this may have a lot to do with the undecided future of their investment in Zimbabwe.
 
BTTB said:
Technical Analysis Research at Standard Bank's Online Share Trading reckons 26060 is a key level, if breached could signal further downside to the 21760 mark.
The JSE All Share Index is currently trading at a PE (Price Earnings Ratio) of about 14 times, the last time I looked. Not too expensive, but if the forward outlook is pointing to a slowing in the economy then this price could actually be deemed demanding.
Take into account that all the Stock Markets are coming off quite high bases. What is alarming is the key level of about 12000 on the Dow which was broken.
In South Africa I am concerned about the big Resource Stocks like Anglo, Billiton and MTN which have all had fairly good runs where investors are probably taking profits at this point in time. The other concern I have is Impala Platinum which has taken a beating the last week - and I think this may have a lot to do with the undecided future of their investment in Zimbabwe.
Click to expand...

It's just the resource shares that are holding the JSE up, financial shares took a beating already.
If Anglos and billiton start to tank, the 26k could be breached wery quickly.

Then again, in January, the JSE dipped big time, and recovered again, so who knows...

Here is Fin and Ind top 30

31/07/2007 25,631
31/08/2007 26,092
30/09/2007 25,596
31/10/2007 27,666
30/11/2007 26,751
31/12/2007 25,798
31/01/2008 22,709
29/02/2008 24,477
31/03/2008 23,868
30/04/2008 24,864
31/05/2008 25,207
30/06/2008 22,433
31/07/2008 21,378
Click to expand...

And resources

31/07/2007 29,737
31/08/2007 29,419
30/09/2007 32,981
31/10/2007 33,364
30/11/2007 32,452
31/12/2007 30,448
31/01/2008 31,443
29/02/2008 36,937
31/03/2008 35,491
30/04/2008 37,174
31/05/2008 39,664
30/06/2008 40,195
31/07/2008 36,309
Click to expand...
 
IMHO as long as the markets head down, oil and gold will rally. It's become the destination of choice for investors, as long as that is the case oil and bullion will remain firm and head north. Political and economic trends (Zim, political uncertainty in SA, emerging market jitters) will affect the JSE more than other markets, but the current global economic climate is too volatile to invest in any of the international stock markets. The current oil price has nothing to do with supply/demand or some idiot that blows up a pipeline in Nigeria, which suddenly causes a rally of $10/barrel in a couple of days. It's more a storm in a teacup being generated to pump prices higher and higher.

As for the JSE, because it's going down it doesn't mean you can't make money out of it. True it's more risky, but shorting JSE stocks while it's heading south (very short term) is a good way of making some bucks off it.
 
.geek said:
LOL. I thought I was the only one not impressed by that post. :)
Click to expand...

I am just surprised that Skinner has apparently been to Hawaii. I hear the Jones' holiday there!

Back on topic:

The markets are merely coming under global inflationary pressures. Time will tell whether this becomes a circular affect for the consumer though as the corporates might have to take the inflationary knock themselves and not the consumer. Not good news for investors though. However should the inflationary pressures be passed down to consumers then the circle begins again, unless the reserve bank change their inflation targeting rules.

And when the JSE broke 30k it was fuelled by commodities speculation IMO - it had to come down again - pity about the timing though! Equities are cheap now and whilst the outlook is not altogether pretty, I reckon investors with long-term growth strategies will soon find a lot of "spare cash" lying around. So, who is going to be the shepherd and who is going to be the sheep?
 
DJStealth said:
I reckon investors with long-term growth strategies will soon find a lot of "spare cash" lying around.
Click to expand...

This is me...

Generator Man said:
Political and economic trends (Zim, political uncertainty in SA, emerging market jitters) will affect the JSE more than other markets
Click to expand...

but this is me too :(

I'm torn, just not sure whether to put more money in or not.
 
You need some serious balls to invest at the moment (apologies CathJ:))

This is where the true risk takers will either make a fortune, or lose it all. Shepherd or the sheep and there is no single answer unfortunately. Having watched the havoc that global economic conditions have played with our markets, we can now deduce who is more exposed to these pressures than others. We can also then strip out this risk to build what amounts to a risk profile of a group of companies who are likely to outperform their peers in the short term.

CathJ - you shoudnt be concerned about investing your money if you think they are cheap - it amounts to getting greedy. So long as you can afford an illiquid investment then go for it. And stick with it if your investment strategy is long term growth.

Over the long-term, global economic pressures must subside, and any indications of inflation easing will fuel another bull run. Whether that is going to happen within the next 3 months or 12 is the question, but they will subside.
 
Its holding relatively steady - I reckon this is the level it would have remained at without commodities speculation. The critical 21k mark will not be breached ever! Mark my words!
 
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