Open a criminal case against SANRAL. I'll have to check the Act that applies.
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[May 2013..Dec 2013] The Gauteng E-tolling Thread
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Open a criminal case against SANRAL. I'll have to check the Act that applies.
Why you absolutely cannot pay for e-tolls...
So I have reworked my previous calculations to better reflect the actual cost environment at Sanral, and while I have been generous in their margin, I have been fair and based my info on actual disclosures. These calculations take costs into account based on disclosures, but it is clear that these costs are understated by a massive amount, but we will use them nonetheless. I have also included a small side-calculation to show the figures Sanral claim we will be paying, as a comparison:
So, want to know what e-tolls will actually cost you, and what it will take to bring the system down? Here it is:
Scenario 1:
This calculation shows the scenario should e-tolling achieve 100% compliance of all registered Gauteng vehicles:
As can be seen, with 100% compliance, every road user will have to pay in the region of R170 per month for e-tolls. We know that 100% compliance is not possible as there are numerous exemptions, people will refuse to pay, and many will find alternative routes or modes of transport.
Scenario 2:
This calculation assumes a 66% compliance rate, meaning 2 000 000 users actually pay every single month:
In this scenario, all 2 million road users willing to pay will need to pay on average, around R260 per month for e-tolls...
Scenario 3:
This calculation assumes a 33% compliance rate, meaning that 1 000 000 road users will pay every single month. From where I stand, this is a more likely scenario and is perhaps a little on the high side...
In this scenario, all paying road users will be required to pay, on average, around R510 per month in order for Sanral to pay its debt. This is quite clearly not realistic on their part to expect such a ludicrously high monthly payment.
It is quite clear that Sanral require upwards of a 66% compliance rate in order for them to simply trade solvently and to avoid a default on their debt. A default will render all outstanding debt liable at that date, including all interest/coupon components, so they will be hellbent on avoiding this, particularly in light of the fact that government has guaranteed about 60% of this debt.
It is therefore imperative that at least one out of every three people you know boycotts e-toll payments, or delays their payment for as long as legally possible. Personally, I will not be paying.
What is alarming is that if we simply delay our payments for as long as possible, it appears (based on some research that I've done into the bond maturities) that Sanral might in fact survive. Their bond yields will spike and this won't be good for them or government, but they can survive, especially if Treasury decide to donate more money their way, or underwrite any other debt on their behalf.
What is needed is a combination of boycotting the roads, boycotting of the payments on principle (this deal is as corrupt as they get), delaying payments for as long as legally possible, and spreading this information far and wide to as many South Africans as you can...
And now would you like to know why Sanral are so terrified of people not complying? Well take a look at this...
As soon as less than a million people comply on a monthly basis, they will be in financial ruin. The shortfall below that number is substantial as it is, but once we hit below 1 000 000 compliance, it becomes completely unmanageable. We need to make sure, now more than ever, and in the light of their threats and implementation date, that we stand up against this system in unity. Cosatu were right when they said that no issue since the inception of this government has been so widely criticised across all demographics. So don't cave in now in the final stretch. We can show government for once, that they report to US, not the other way around...
So I have reworked my previous calculations to better reflect the actual cost environment at Sanral, and while I have been generous in their margin, I have been fair and based my info on actual disclosures. These calculations take costs into account based on disclosures, but it is clear that these costs are understated by a massive amount, but we will use them nonetheless. I have also included a small side-calculation to show the figures Sanral claim we will be paying, as a comparison:
So, want to know what e-tolls will actually cost you, and what it will take to bring the system down? Here it is:
Scenario 1:
This calculation shows the scenario should e-tolling achieve 100% compliance of all registered Gauteng vehicles:
As can be seen, with 100% compliance, every road user will have to pay in the region of R170 per month for e-tolls. We know that 100% compliance is not possible as there are numerous exemptions, people will refuse to pay, and many will find alternative routes or modes of transport.
Scenario 2:
This calculation assumes a 66% compliance rate, meaning 2 000 000 users actually pay every single month:
In this scenario, all 2 million road users willing to pay will need to pay on average, around R260 per month for e-tolls...
Scenario 3:
This calculation assumes a 33% compliance rate, meaning that 1 000 000 road users will pay every single month. From where I stand, this is a more likely scenario and is perhaps a little on the high side...
In this scenario, all paying road users will be required to pay, on average, around R510 per month in order for Sanral to pay its debt. This is quite clearly not realistic on their part to expect such a ludicrously high monthly payment.
It is quite clear that Sanral require upwards of a 66% compliance rate in order for them to simply trade solvently and to avoid a default on their debt. A default will render all outstanding debt liable at that date, including all interest/coupon components, so they will be hellbent on avoiding this, particularly in light of the fact that government has guaranteed about 60% of this debt.
It is therefore imperative that at least one out of every three people you know boycotts e-toll payments, or delays their payment for as long as legally possible. Personally, I will not be paying.
What is alarming is that if we simply delay our payments for as long as possible, it appears (based on some research that I've done into the bond maturities) that Sanral might in fact survive. Their bond yields will spike and this won't be good for them or government, but they can survive, especially if Treasury decide to donate more money their way, or underwrite any other debt on their behalf.
What is needed is a combination of boycotting the roads, boycotting of the payments on principle (this deal is as corrupt as they get), delaying payments for as long as legally possible, and spreading this information far and wide to as many South Africans as you can...
And now would you like to know why Sanral are so terrified of people not complying? Well take a look at this...
As soon as less than a million people comply on a monthly basis, they will be in financial ruin. The shortfall below that number is substantial as it is, but once we hit below 1 000 000 compliance, it becomes completely unmanageable. We need to make sure, now more than ever, and in the light of their threats and implementation date, that we stand up against this system in unity. Cosatu were right when they said that no issue since the inception of this government has been so widely criticised across all demographics. So don't cave in now in the final stretch. We can show government for once, that they report to US, not the other way around...
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http://mybroadband.co.za/news/general/92327-free-defence-for-first-e-toll-case.html
Kudos to them, 95% of the lawyers give these guys a bad name
Kudos to them, 95% of the lawyers give these guys a bad name
SoulTax
Executive Member
So what is the latest implementation date?
3 Dec 2013.
SoulTax
Executive Member
Damn. I arrive on the 10th. Will try to see how to dodge these payments if I can.
AlphaBravo
Expert Member
So they know Gauteng is empty over December, few users gives them time to sort out their bugs in the system and what to prepare for when all hell breaks loose in January.
Mila
Honorary Master
And they can tell us in January: Look how we reduced the traffic.
Problem is people will be leaving the province after the system has been activated and they will come back to massive bills. Expect hell in Jan.
kat06sa
Expert Member
I remember Alli stating that 83% of user will pay upto R100 a month. And going by DJ's model, it looks like it's going to be tight from day 1.
OrbitalDawn
Ulysses Everett McGill
LazyLion
King of de Jungle
This is indeed a problem. How are you supposed to pay within 7 days if you are leaving for holiday on the 14th December and returning in January?
They thought they were being clever when they made that statement. They were referring to the entire population, which is an implied statement that the road is of national benefit. Which ironically quells their legal argument that is shouldn't be considered such by parliament. They also used the national benefit argument to push the project through at inception.
My model shows that if they were referring to Gauteng road users, then they are lying, or they are financial morons. If they're referring to the national population, then they're being intentionally disingenuous and pretty much lying to the public.
I mean I can conclusively show that even with a 100% compliance rate, and using absolutely bare minimal costs, the average across 3 million road users is close on R250 per month. And my figures show an EBITDA percentage of around 79%. That's just ridiculously high - there are far more costs associated with this project that have not been made public, but I simply used publicly available data.
They are lying through their teeth...
supersunbird
Honorary Master
People commuting from PTA to Joburg or other way will easily reach the R300 and more mark, no way they are just 0.59% of the users...
koeksGHT
Dealer
Facebook's ads getting relevant
Musiclover08
Senior Member
I will be hitting 2 gantries per day. R5 per day multiplied by 20 working days and that is R100 per month. I also work Saturday's and that is a further R20 a month. I also visit my gf 3 times a week and pass 4 tolls on that route. R32 per trip. I hit 5 tollgates on a Sunday which works out to R30 per trip. I go that way four times a month.
Altogether I am paying R624 a month. So much for those "calculations" even with an etag I will still hit the maximum.
Okay so I plugged their numbers into my model, and calculated how long it would take them to repay their debt (which is due between now and 2028 - so max 14 years, and much of it long before then):
In order to repay their debt alone (principle debt, no interest payments) - it would take them 15,47 years.
In order to repay their debt plus the interest component - it would take them 31,09 years
Neither of which are viable. And they cannot simply ignore the interest component.
So one can only conclude that they are planning a massive series of price hikes over the next few years in order to avoid defaulting on their debt.
This is of serious concern! There is simply no way for them to meet the financial/cash flow demands required of them at current pricing to service their debt, without additional assistance from government (we pay again) or very large price increases. They would have absolutely no choice but to increase prices, or to ask Treasury for more money. Now the only way for Treasury to do so is by raising taxes in other areas, especially in light of e-toll prices having annual increase caps linked to CPI iirc. Can't recall if this was cited or not.
So Sanral are lying...
DJ did you factor into your equations that like that SANRAL spins about e-tolls only being 15 or whatever % of their budget? If that really is the case (which I doubt because they have been lying every stop of the way) then the majority of their income should come from other projects.
ToxicBunny
Oi! Leave me out of this...
I would have guessed that if SANRAL had done this all properly, this GFIP project and its future cashflows would have been ringfenced so as to not destroy the liquidity of the rest of the "business"
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