Municipal elections 2016

[StellenboschStudent]

With the municipal elections about 6 months away (depending on when exactly it will be, most likely in April somewhere), what are your predictions?

With all that has happened the last couple of months - students protesting, the debacle in parliament, Zuma just laughing at everything, SAA and SABC catastrophes and the usual bad service delivery, do you think the average voter will decide to cast their vote to another party?

Sure, the majority (uneducated) will still vote ANC. But can the educated middle class hurt the ANC? Next question, for who will they vote? Cannot see them voting DA, nor EFF...

Can the EFF hurt the ANC, and open the door for the DA is more municipalities?

Western Cape - DA
Northern Cape - ANC
Eastern Cape - ANC
Freestate - ANC
Gauteng - DA?
Kwazulu Natal - ANC
North-West - ANC
Limpopo - ANC (maybe EFF?)
Mpumalanga - ANC

 

[Dlamaqhinga]

Why list provinces? the elections will be for municipalities thus in Gauteng, it'll be Tswhane, COJ, Ekurhuleni, etc.

 

[StellenboschStudent]

Why list provinces? the elections will be for municipalities thus in Gauteng, it'll be Tswhane, COJ, Ekurhuleni, etc.

Just to show the sort of average for each province. Sure, some wards is WC will go to ANC...

Looking at previous results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_municipal_elections,_2011
Will be interesting to see what the EFF does. I am sure COPE won't get the same amount of support, but cannot see those supporters going to DA or EFF. Will they go back to ANC?

Only real close counsels (big) were:
Nelson Mandela Bay
Kouga
Manguang
Tswane
Midvaal

 

[ToxicBunny]

Just to show the sort of average for each province. Sure, some wards is WC will go to ANC...

Looking at previous results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_municipal_elections,_2011
Will be interesting to see what the EFF does. I am sure COPE won't get the same amount of support, but cannot see those supporters going to DA or EFF. Will they go back to ANC?

Only real close counsels (big) were:
Nelson Mandela Bay
Kouga
Manguang
Tswane
Midvaal

Averages mean nothing..

For instance, the DA could take ALL the municipalites in the Eastern Cape but still be beholden to an ANC provincial government.

 

[supersunbird]

With the municipal elections about 6 months away (depending on when exactly it will be, most likely in April somewhere), what are your predictions?

With all that has happened the last couple of months - students protesting, the debacle in parliament, Zuma just laughing at everything, SAA and SABC catastrophes and the usual bad service delivery, do you think the average voter will decide to cast their vote to another party?

Sure, the majority (uneducated) will still vote ANC. But can the educated middle class hurt the ANC? Next question, for who will they vote? Cannot see them voting DA, nor EFF...

Can the EFF hurt the ANC, and open the door for the DA is more municipalities?

Western Cape - DA
Northern Cape - ANC
Eastern Cape - ANC
Freestate - ANC
Gauteng - DA?
Kwazulu Natal - ANC
North-West - ANC
Limpopo - ANC (maybe EFF?)
Mpumalanga - ANC

MyBB Fact Police disapproves of your listing of Provinces when talking about Municipal elections.

-1 internet point

 

[StellenboschStudent]

Averages mean nothing..

For instance, the DA could take ALL the municipalites in the Eastern Cape but still be beholden to an ANC provincial government.

Fair enough yeah...
Just hoping we see some changes on local level. Then people can see, to an extend, what proper municipalities can do for them. Then in 2019 things can hopefully change even more

 

[MickeyD]

These are the metros that count...

Buffalo City (East London)
City of Cape Town (Cape Town)
City of Johannesburg (Johannesburg)
City of Tshwane (Pretoria)
Ekurhuleni (Germiston)
eThekwini(Durban)
Mangaung (Bloemfontein)
Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)

 

[Pitbull]

These are the metros that count...

Buffalo City (East London)
City of Cape Town (Cape Town)
City of Johannesburg (Johannesburg)
City of Tshwane (Pretoria)
Ekurhuleni (Germiston)
eThekwini(Durban)
Mangaung (Bloemfontein)
Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)

I recall DA coming very close last time round. I would love for the DA to run Pretoria. God knows we need it

 

[supersunbird]

I recall DA coming very close last time round. I would love for the DA to run Pretoria. God knows we need it

Might have won it if they didn't decide to include Cullinan and whomever else's failed ANC towns into it before the last municipal elections.

 

[phoneJunky]

I recall DA coming very close last time round. I would love for the DA to run Pretoria. God knows we need it

I don't think the DA came close, but I think the ANC came close to not getting 50% Didn't they end up with 55% or something?

Anyway here is the seats won in Gauteng in that election

Municipality ANC COPE DA IFP VF+ Others Total
Ekurhuleni (East Rand) 125 2 62 2 1 10 202
City of Johannesburg 153 3 90 4 1 9 260
City of Tshwane (Pretoria) 118 2 82 0 4 4 210
Emfuleni 64 1 21 0 1 2 89
Midvaal 11 0 15 0 1 0 27
Lesedi 19 0 6 0 1 0 26
Mogale City (Krugersdorp) 41 1 23 1 1 1 68
Randfontein 27 1 16 0 0 0 44
Westonaria 23 1 4 1 0 2 31
Merafong City 41 1 11 1 0 2 56
Total 622 11 330 9 10 30 1013

 

[samus]

The urban vote is what the ANC needs to be worried about. The ruling party will likely retain it's dominance in the vast majority of municipalities. It is only in a handful of councils that are at risk. But these few are very significant: Nelson Mandela Bay (PE), Tshwane (Pretoria) and perhaps Johannesburg.

A strong performance for the DA will depend on a high opposition voter turnout. In 2011, the ANC recieved 8 million votes, compared to roughly 11 million in 2009 and 2014. The DA on the other hand held firm, and actually increased its number of votes slightly from 2,9 million in 2009 to 3,2 million in 2011. If the DA can accomplish something similar next year and hold onto its 4 million votes, its voter share will be likely to increase significantly due to the stay away effect among ANC supporters. Mainly in the metros.

DA is weak in the rural areas, however. There are a number of smaller councils in WC and NC that are at risk of falling to the ANC. Examples are Hantam and Laingsburg. But if they can take 1 or 2 metros from the ANC, potential losses in these more insignificant councils may be easier to swallow.

 

[REAList_1]

The metros guarantee the significant number of seats in parliament.
Its the money inside them for voter buying thats important.
I've been exposed to some DA members and am not impressed. Females in the majority of voters do not have any say.

 

[REAList_1]

I don't think the DA came close, but I think the ANC came close to not getting 50% Didn't they end up with 55% or something?

Anyway here is the seats won in Gauteng in that election

Seems like these are zuma numbers.

 

[supersunbird]

Seems like these are zuma numbers.

LOL.

Forum cant do columns...

 

[skimread]

The urban vote is what the ANC needs to be worried about

Nope. The ANC puts voter stations in informal settlements and low cost housing area centers where you get all kinds of freebies on voter day like food. These poor areas also get various grants, free electricity, free education, free this and that. As long as informal settlements vote ANC, the ANC don't lose. Government and semi-government organisations also employ a hell of a lot of people like municipal workers with large dependent families.

People who have bills to pay and know the exchange rate weakening will hurt us, will know the ANC is abusing the economy. The majority don't care. The ANC won't lose power in major cities. The poor's high birth rates comparatively and changes in population demographics will offset any gains from ANC bungles.