Murder down 30% since 1994, but perceptions different.

[Therooster]

From here.

Murder rates in SA had declined 30% over the past 15 years, but this has not been reflected in the perceptions of South Africans, who feel crime levels have actually increased, the South African Institute of Race Relations said yesterday.

Researcher Kerwin Lebone said the 25,965 people murdered in 1994-95 had decreased to 18,148 murders in 2008-09.

This showed a decrease in the rate of murders per 100,000 people, from 70 in 1994-95 to 37 in 2008-09.

Lebone said the consistent decline in the murder rate showed that the police had achieved some success. However, the improvement in the murder rate was not reflected in the perceptions of South Africans that crime levels have increased.

House robberies, which are often violent and sometimes lead to people being killed, had the biggest effect on perceptions.

Lebone said SA’s murder rate was still unacceptably high and the use of private security had increased among those who could afford it, replacing the role of the police in their communities.

While the murder rate here is still very high (less so if you're white as only 1 in 33 murders happens to white people). Given such a massive decrease in murders why the perception that the murder rate has gone up ? What is it about the White South African psyche that makes us so neurotic and needlessly cynical ?

Discuss.

 

[Balstrome]

firstly the report comes from a suspect site, and perception usually are based on facts, especially if they are held a large number of people. False perceptions usually get found out and are removed from the public conciousness.

 

[Therooster]

firstly the report comes from a suspect site, and perception usually are based on facts, especially if they are held a large number of people. False perceptions usually get found out and are removed from the public conciousness.

In this case the perception is clearly not based on facts. The numbers come from the official crime reports (which despite conspiracy theory drivel are accurate. For them to be manipulated the entire police, hospitals who write death certificates , insurance actuaries industry etc would need to be in on it). Fact of the matter is that murder is sharply down since 1994. So why the WRONG perception that is has increased ?

Why is it so unique to white South Africans that we seem to want to believe these things are worse than they are ? It's a very interesting psychological phenomena. Some kind of guilt ? Some kind of wanting to perceive themselves as victims ? Good old fashioned racism and wanting to be able to say "I told you so" ?

It was the same during the economic boom. The country was literally outperforming 99.9% of the world and enjoying its biggest economic growth ever and amazingly all ym white friends opinion at the time was that "The economy is going to hell". The news of the recent recession was greeted with glee from most of them. Wierd. Very wierd.

 

[LazyLion]

Murder down 30% since 1994, but perceptions different.

um, cos it's getting harder to find people to murder?

 

[dj_jyno]

Perhaps it's not the number of murders but the brutality of them that gets to people.

 

[Therooster]

um, cos it's getting harder to find people to murder?

My eyes are rolling so fast my head looks like a slot machine.

 

[Therooster]

Perhaps it's not the number of murders but the brutality of them that gets to people.

Perhaps. Why not make that the focus of their argument then ? Firstly there is no evidence to say murders are any more violent than they have ever been. Most South African murders are drunken knife/gun fights type of events. But why then the constant circle jerk of people saying things like "Murder is spiraling out of control" when in fact well...er....murdering is rapidly decreasing ?

I'm just saying. A thing is getting better or it's getting worse. To say something is getting worse when it's getting better is just not tenable. Why do South Africans struggle with this logical flaw ?

 

[Mamajyot]

maybe all the people dead so no one else to kill?

 

[Therooster]

maybe all the people dead so no one else to kill?

Unless your day job involves thinking, stick to it.

 

[charlie_82]

Most reports will tell you that crime, in general, is dropping.
Funny though cos I know more & more people who have been victims of crime...

I wouldn't know about murder, but a lot of people don't report crime anymore because it's so pointless. When my car got broken into and went to report it, the officer couldn't understand why I was there cos I didn't have insurance.

 

[Blaze786]

maybe all the people dead so no one else to kill?

Funny how you knock me for my terrible spelling, yet you can't even string a coherent sentence together.

OT: Their is A LOT of controversy around the doctoring of the crime stats, don't see these as anything different. Believe what you want, the facts speak for themselves crime is far from better, it is much worse.

 

[Therooster]

Most reports will tell you that crime, in general, is dropping.
Funny though cos I know more & more people who have been victims of crime...

I wouldn't know about murder, but a lot of people don't report crime anymore because it's so pointless. When my car got broken into and went to report it, the officer couldn't understand why I was there cos I didn't have insurance.

Let's be honest, most of us wouldn't bother reporting petty theft to the cops 10 years ago either. And if you think car theft in this country is higher than average it's not. It's higher per capita in the states and Australia for example.

 

[charlie_82]

OT: Their is A LOT of controversy around the doctoring of the crime stats, don't see these as anything different. Believe what you want, the facts speak for themselves crime is far from better, it is much worse.

+1
I wouldn't put my faith in any of those stats

 

[Smooth Criminal]

Journalists are to the media what trolls are to forums. Take it with a pinch of salt and move on.

 

[J25]

..and perception usually are based on facts, especially if they are held a large number of people. False perceptions usually get found out and are removed from the public conciousness.

hahahahahahaha. Are you serious?

Firstly, at most, only 1 of the world's religions is true, so that's automatically billions of people who have false perceptions.

Secondly, the percentage of the population which believe in some sort of woo is also very high, be it astrology, crystal healing, faith healing, homeopathy, alien abduction, sangomas, demonic possession, haunted houses, speaking to dead people, reincarnation, etc.

I could go on forever.

To say that "perceptions are based on facts, especially if they are held by a large number of people" is simply absurd.

 

[charlie_82]

Let's be honest, most of us wouldn't bother reporting petty theft to the cops 10 years ago either. And if you think car theft in this country is higher than average it's not. It's higher per capita in the states and Australia for example.

Petty theft? Having thousands of rands of good stolen from you?
Petty or not, I work hard for my money. I work hard to own the things I do, petty or not. What right is it of someone to help themselves to it without my permission?

That's the problem with this country... We think it's petty so it's no big deal. 20 years ago, you'd be arrested and imprisoned for burglary, now it's not a big deal.

With that mentality, murder & rape will become petty eventually too.

 

[Blah!Blah!]

Older article, but if they where misreporting then, what is there to stop them now, especially with the wc2010 coming up?

Official Cover Up
Sharp discrepancies between official statistics and those of Interpol and the Medical Research Council are considered. One observer is quoted as saying that the “easiest way for the police to reduce the crime rate is simply to do nothing but record only those crimes where a case number is absolutely mandatory …” Numerous experts are quoted as suspecting “serious under reporting”; “perhaps these figures are concealed for political reasons’; “the reason for this under reporting could be the desire to change the ongoing reputation of South Africa as the crime capital of the world.”

Living Behind Bars and Locks
Of course, few South Africans would need the impeccable research documented in this report to convince them that security has deteriorated and crime has escalated during the last ten years.

No matter what the official statistics may claim, many South Africans remember a time when most children walked or cycled to school on their own, when most homes were not surrounded by high walls, razor wire and spikes. When homes did not need burglar bars and security gates, alarm systems and armed response companies and when many roads did not need security booms. When vehicles did not need gear locks, steering locks, alarm systems and satellite tracking devices. When we did not carry such huge bunches of keys.

The Most Murderous Societies On Earth
The Nedcore Project has concluded that: “South Africa and Southern Africa are probably the most murderous societies on earth, even with the probable under-reporting.” The Nedcore Project claims the results of their surveys “underscore the fact that crime has become South Africa’s pre-eminent sociological problem. It now eclipses even unemployment in concerns of all South Africans.”

The bizarre behaviour of the ANC government in, at one stage, imposing a moratorium on crime statistics is also questioned. The report shows that in the first seven years of ANC rule, violence and crime in South Africa increased by 33%, officially.

Worse Than War
The UCA Report on Murder in South Africa reveals that according to the official statistics, in the 44 years from 1950 to 1993, there was an average of 7036 murders per year. This covered the turbulent strife of the apartheid years of warfare, conflict, terrorism, riots and repression.

However, in the first eight years (of peace) of the new democratic dispensation, under the ANC, an average of 24 206 murders were committed each year. However, if the Interpol statistics are accepted, then the murder rate in South Africa during the ANC years has averaged 47 882 per year.

http://www.frontline.org.za/articles/gettingaway_withmurder.htm

 

[Therooster]

Funny how you knock me for my terrible spelling, yet you can't even string a coherent sentence together.

OT: Their is A LOT of controversy around the doctoring of the crime stats, don't see these as anything different. Believe what you want, the facts speak for themselves crime is far from better, it is much worse.

Wrong. It's quantifiably better. Despite there being millions more people here than 1994 now there are 30% less murders. Simple fact.

As I said the "controversy" over crime statistics speaks at the heart of the matter. There is no good , valid argument that can show there has been any manipulation of the crime stats (for example the rape and murder stats went up in some years...why would they allow this if they could manipulate stats ?) The fact when people here the murder rate is down they immediately dream up conspiracies just shows how badly their perceptions have been distorted.

I blame the alarmist sensationalistic media to an extent but certainly there is a willingness to want to believe things are getting worse that exists in many white South Africans which is quite unique in this world.

 

[charlie_82]

No matter what the official statistics may claim, many South Africans remember a time when most children walked or cycled to school on their own, when most homes were not surrounded by high walls, razor wire and spikes. When homes did not need burglar bars and security gates, alarm systems and armed response companies and when many roads did not need security booms. When vehicles did not need gear locks, steering locks, alarm systems and satellite tracking devices. When we did not carry such huge bunches of keys.

Exactly, and it wasn't that long ago cos I'm under 30.
My brother and I rode around on our bikes kilometers away from home. All day long. And not ncessarily together either. No one had to worry.
And being non-white, we lived in what would've then been to referred to as an unsavoury area.

 

[Therooster]

From an idiot who has a name like '%ROOSTER%' i suggest you shut it.

My comment was tongue in cheek, but I guess your kind only purpose serves as my supper!

You eat my purpose for dinner ? Did you mean my porpoise ? That would make more grammatical sense but would be a little bit weird.