Brazil is heading straight into the arms of the International Monetary Fund. The sooner this grim reality is recognized by the country's leaders, the safer it will be for the world.
The interwoven political and economic crisis has gone beyond the point of no return. The government is frozen. The finance ministry has lost the trust of Brazilian investors and global markets in equal measure.
Almost nothing credible is being done to stop the debt trajectory spinning into orbit. Few believe that the ruling Workers Party is either or capable or willing to take the drastic austerity measures needed to break out of the policy trap, or that it would suffice at this late stage even if they tried."There is an enormous fiscal crisis and we're flirting with a return to hyperinflation. All the debt variables are going in the wrong direction," said Raul Velloso, the former state secretary of planning.
"There is a loss of confidence in the ability of the government to manage its debts. We face the risk of default," he said. Three quarters of the budget is effectively untouchable, locked in by a web of welfare payments and regional transfers.
President Dilma Rousseff is battling impeachment, and whether she wins or loses over coming months, the congress is too fractured and enflamed to do much about a budget deficit running at over 10pc of GDP.
"I have the feeling that nobody wants to take any bold steps, or make any sacrifices," said Arminio Fraga, the former central bank governor.
"Brazil ended up in this situation by doubling down on credit and fiscal expansion. It woke up with the nightmare of a paralyzed country and a ruined model that is not being corrected. It is an economic tragedy," he told O Estado do Sao Paolo.
Mr Fraga said the collapse is desperately sad because Brazil seemed to be on the right path under president Luis Inacio da Silva, or Lula as everybody knows him.
"There was a feeling that the country was getting ahead, and then it vanished. The country suddenly lost itself completely," he said.
It emerged this week that even Lula is under criminal investigation, the latest casualty of the Lava Jato (carwash) scandal. This began as a probe into the abuse of inflated contracts from the state oil giant Petrobras to fund the Workers Party, but is fast engulfing the country's political elites in a broader purge - akin to Italy's 'mani pulite' scandals in the 1990s.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/02/only-the-imf-can-now-save-brazil/

.