Ou grote
Honorary Master
He's been told that multiple times as well...
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Past performance good indicator for future performance?
- Thread starter marco
- Start date
He's been told that multiple times as well...
Well you lost 45% which kind of proves my point.Would your performance be the same if you had a R100 million portfolio? That is my point. I have worked for a hedge fund in London,a large investment bank and have seen loads with regards to what makes a good portfolio manager, unfortunately I tend to agree with DJ's sentiment. Just my view
No. It doesn't prove your point. That was in 2008 when the market crashed. I was in Managed UT's at that time and we all felt that to a large degree.
CML cannot carry on as it has for years but only due to the AUM that might grow too high as the CEO stated. This must be monitored but as they are a third party investment Co. for Pension funds, Medical Aid funds and the like, surely they will take appropriate action to protect the institutional investors.
CML has had only one correction of -7% since inception and that was last week and now is on the roll again.
I am constantly researching for stocks similar to CML's performance if I need to change.
It is also said here that Coronation's funds decrease when the market is in a bear market. This is correct but not as you might think. They still outdo their benchmarks keeping CML as a Co. growing.
I have proved this over time with the Sharenet competition. During the bull markets I am at a respectical top 5 and during a bear market I have been right at the top.
Now what does this tell you?
CML cannot carry on as it has for years but only due to the AUM that might grow too high as the CEO stated. This must be monitored but as they are a third party investment Co. for Pension funds, Medical Aid funds and the like, surely they will take appropriate action to protect the institutional investors.
CML has had only one correction of -7% since inception and that was last week and now is on the roll again.
I am constantly researching for stocks similar to CML's performance if I need to change.
It is also said here that Coronation's funds decrease when the market is in a bear market. This is correct but not as you might think. They still outdo their benchmarks keeping CML as a Co. growing.
I have proved this over time with the Sharenet competition. During the bull markets I am at a respectical top 5 and during a bear market I have been right at the top.
Now what does this tell you?
marco, are you serious dude?
past performance in a company, correlates as much with future performance as the performance of an athlete - if the athlete slackens or if new competitors arrive, his past performance is irrelevant..... not even mentioning if the market forces change
past performance in a company, correlates as much with future performance as the performance of an athlete - if the athlete slackens or if new competitors arrive, his past performance is irrelevant..... not even mentioning if the market forces change
Ou grote
Honorary Master
I'm pretty sure the stormers are going to choke again this year.
If past performance is a old indicator of future performance then why do asset managers or hedge funds have analysts as all they would have to do is look at past performance and pick those stocks and wait .
So you basically saying that they can't keep growing their assets forever ( already closed some funds to public ) but you think they will outperform the market . If you read up you will see that they feel they will struggle to generate alpha in the future if money keeps coming in . They have just changed the CEO from Hugo Nelson who might have been the reason why they did so well in last 5 years . Maybe Anton Pillay will be less or more aggressive and make them under perform ... Past performance cannot predict future as there are too many variables at play
Oh Jam. I have said that it cannot continue years ago and guess what? It Has. Pillay does not make the calls on what to invest in. He is the CEO and does not do the investing. The Fund Managers do. As Coronation is the most successful 3'rd party Fund Managers, he will surely not rock the boat. You talking pension money here.
Because that will be a stupid system. Using historical analysis only does not work.
Ou grote
Honorary Master
28/02/2007 820
31/03/2007 776
30/04/2007 861
31/05/2007 854
30/06/2007 800
31/07/2007 860
31/08/2007 848
30/09/2007 867
31/10/2007 950
30/11/2007 945
31/12/2007 815
31/01/2008 599
29/02/2008 675
31/03/2008 625
30/04/2008 660
31/05/2008 560
30/06/2008 455
31/07/2008 500
31/08/2008 520
30/09/2008 575
31/10/2008 500
30/11/2008 500
31/12/2008 462
31/01/2009 450
28/02/2009 440
From R8.20 to R4.40?
Oh Alfred my silly man. Is your surname "Newman" by any chance? Like in that mag called "Mad Magazine"?
You took so much trouble to research and make notes of CML's performance during the market CRASH of 2007/8.
Do you not recall this crash or were you in nappies then?
ALL stocks crashed big time then. The BIG DIP RECESSION.
Now if you will oblige, please give us the same table AFTER 2008. I dare you.
I have just checked. Gained 600% since 2009. So you need not embarrass yourself by replying.
You took so much trouble to research and make notes of CML's performance during the market CRASH of 2007/8.
Do you not recall this crash or were you in nappies then?
ALL stocks crashed big time then. The BIG DIP RECESSION.
Now if you will oblige, please give us the same table AFTER 2008. I dare you.
I have just checked. Gained 600% since 2009. So you need not embarrass yourself by replying.
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Ou grote
Honorary Master
Read your post that I quoted again, especially the bold part.
Then read the response again.
He's incorrectly using the term "correction" - once again...
Look I knew I was right but just too lazy to get the data to prove something going no where.Yes CML have performed well (we all agree) but as the above data shows it does not perform well in bear markets.Similar stock is OML as its earnings are a direct reflection of the equity market.My point still stands Coronation under a new ceo and anything can happen as their alpha ability is lost and you loose your good earnings
Please get your facts right if you wont to post on this type of forum .CML going from 8.20 to R4 clearly goes against what you have written above especially the "even goes up in bear markets"
Hate to break it to you but a bear market is a bear market and not many people predict bull and bear markets and normally have a bias.Nobody predicted 2008 crash ,like not many will predict the next bear market which could or could not be worse than 2008.Still a bear market and hindsight is a lovely thing
Ou grote
Honorary Master
If past performance is a good indicator, then CML should lose half it's value in the next bear marker.
Given that we generally have 7 year cycles, and the last bear was around six years ago ....
Given that we generally have 7 year cycles, and the last bear was around six years ago ....
I was talking short term bear markets post 2008 crash. And I know the difference between a crash and a correction unlike some here.
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That was a market crash. How did the Top 40 do during this crash? It will be interesting to know. I don't have charts on my tablet and can only check tonight if someone can oblige.
Ou grote
Honorary Master
You said that there has never been a correction of more than 7% since inception - there have in fact been many of those.
You said that CML keeps growing during bear markets and crashes - it lost half it's value last time.