Petrol up again next wednesday

[boramk]

Well dude it was 75 dollars about 2 or 3 months ago, it's now 118-120 dollars. That is a massive jump. I can only see it going higher as well as Libya engage in a civil war and big trouble brewing in the middle east. My father reckons we could see 15 rand by the end of the year.

I doubt we'll see R15 that soon. The Arab world protests has impacted oil prices, but other factors are more important: the demand for oil from India and China.
While Libya might be an oil producer, there are many more oil producers that are non-Arab, including the world's largest oil reserves which is now Venezuela and in third place Canada.
Saudi Arabia is not having major protests. The price of oil is the result of speculation and investment

 

[Hard Rain]

The price of oil is the result of speculation and investment

The price of oil is the result of price-fixing and currency manipulation.

 

[boramk]

The price of oil is the result of price-fixing and currency manipulation.

Erm, no, its all speculation, supply and demand.
The Arab World Protests resulted into speculation rise as an oil producing country or country in the vicinity of oil producing countries have gone into trouble. Investors understand that this might affect supply, which in turn will increase price. Investors keep buying to increase profits and prospects. Of course there is an offshoot that less oil is produced but Libya's output is minimal in the greater OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.
Because of demand and supply, OPEC can hold back supply or decrease the barrels per day which limits supply, and once again increases price and profits for them.

Where is this price fixing you speak of?
Currency manipulation? Oil is traded in dollars? I don't understand what you mean?

 

[killadoob]

I think the answer lies right here http://www.thetakeaway.org/2011/mar/22/middle-east-japan-push-oil-prices-back-over-magic-mark/

 

[boramk]

Oh yes Japan :/

 

[Hard Rain]

Erm, no, its all speculation, supply and demand.
The Arab World Protests resulted into speculation rise as an oil producing country or country in the vicinity of oil producing countries have gone into trouble. Investors understand that this might affect supply, which in turn will increase price. Investors keep buying to increase profits and prospects. Of course there is an offshoot that less oil is produced but Libya's output is minimal in the greater OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.
Because of demand and supply, OPEC can hold back supply or decrease the barrels per day which limits supply, and once again increases price and profits for them.

OPEC controlling supply is tantamount to price-fixing. And no, they cannot simply hold back supply to raise prices because, at a certain point, this would result in a reduction in demand, and thus a reduction in revenue. This is a fine balance they tread, because cartels cannot stay formed when there is temptation for one or more members to under-sell the others and receive some profits rather than none.

Currency manipulation? Oil is traded in dollars? I don't understand what you mean?

The U.S. Federal Reserve, along with the Bank of International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund, is responsible for the dollar existing as a reserve currency for central banks in the place of what was traditionally gold. The Fed, over the past few years, has doled out trillions to selected foreign central banks, private banks and companies. These institutions control the purchasing parity of currency units, thus they are manipulated by the arbitrary supply of dollars. Some central banks further their manipulation, like China, by "pegging" their currencies to the U.S. dollar. When you mix this with the OPEC supply/price fixing you see that there is no actual natural market rate for oil, it's incredibly manipulated and more than likely way over-priced.

The recent dramatic rises in commodity prices across the board is more likely the consequences of the rapacious inflationary polices of the Fed over the past few years. The seeds they sowed trying to avert the 2008 financial crisis are coming to fruit.

Edit: Three links of interest.

Free Markets Would Be OPEC's Undoing

What Can We Do about Gasoline Prices?

Oil Price Mirage

 

[killadoob]

Well all i know is the weaker the dollar the higher gold and that is because people are buying gold and not dollars thus weakening the dollar. It is said people buying gold is weaking the dollar. So the dollar won't recover i reckon and will eventually be phased out of commodity trading.

So buy gold if you have money because the US dollar i cannot see strengthening.

 

[boramk]

OPEC controlling supply is tantamount to price-fixing. And no, they cannot simply hold back supply to raise prices because, at a certain point, this would result in a reduction in demand, and thus a reduction in revenue. This is a fine balance they tread, because cartels cannot stay formed when there is temptation for one or more members to under-sell the others and receive some profits rather than none.

Sure fine, if you want to call that price fixing I see no wrong in that although I wouldn't necessary agree.
And yes, they do hold back supply. They reduce the barrels per day increasing prices. I don't see how this affects demand unless you are going on long term, like 15 years whereby high oil prices spur growth for alternative energy sources. But that is neither now nor pertaining to the argument. The demand will be the same: that is the reason why price increases.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, along with the Bank of International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund, is responsible for the dollar existing as a reserve currency for central banks in the place of what was traditionally gold. The Fed, over the past few years, has doled out trillions to selected foreign central banks, private banks and companies. These institutions control the purchasing parity of currency units, thus they are manipulated by the arbitrary supply of dollars. Some central banks further their manipulation, like China, by "pegging" their currencies to the U.S. dollar. When you mix this with the OPEC supply/price fixing you see that there is no actual natural market rate for oil, it's incredibly manipulated and more than likely way over-priced.

What hold up, are you saying that the OPEC countries are fixing their currencies? If not, then why bring in China as an example?
If yes, can you prove it? AFAIK, the OPEC countries, unlike China, uses a floating exchange rate system.
The only manipulation I see on oil prices is the supply side of OPEC.

 

[Hard Rain]

What hold up, are you saying that the OPEC countries are fixing their currencies? If not, then why bring in China as an example?If yes, can you prove it? AFAIK, the OPEC countries, unlike China, uses a floating exchange rate system.
The only manipulation I see on oil prices is the supply side of OPEC.

I'm saying that the floating exchange system is a mirage, currency units get manipulated by central banks in lieu of the fact that the supply of Reserve dollars is completely discretionary. I'm saying certain exchange ratios and price fluctuations benefit those with the connections to the central banks. They can front-run the manipulations. This Friedmanite idea that fiat currency is fine so long as there are floating exchanges is the road to ruin- the inevitable demise will be the perverse responses of competitive devaluation and mercantilism.