<blockquote id="quote"><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by greedyflyza</i>
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With a contention of say 50:1 you can expand that 200KB/sec for 30000 users to almost 500000 users at 512Kb/sec. Now we dont even have 100000 users at that speed already so there should be no bandwidth problem at present.
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That is just not good business sense. A 50:1 contention ratio on 200 KBps could stretch 30,000 users to maybe 1,500,000 users max. That is only 3.5% of South Africa's population, and less than 0.2% of Africa's population. Now while it is very unlikely that all 50 users will be downloading at once, it IS very likely that around 5 out of 50 users will be downloading at once (once things like P2P apps become popular here, more-over there is a BIG bandwidth demand from companies, who will again re-share connections internally between 10 and 100 people, meaning their portions will be mostly busy all day long; likewise houses, schools, flats, residences etc will share connections).
Speaking business: In terms of income per bytes-per-second provided to a user, ordinary voice telecomms (landlines) gives companies like Telkom a MUCH larger income than affordable consumer broadband. Assume the basic cost of landline rental to be R100/month, if Telkom could service (directly or indirectly) tens of millions of African households and businesses all over the continent, that would provide a monthly income in the range of several BILLIONS of rands in line rental alone - that doesn't even count the cost of calls! So that's > R100/month for < 6KB/s (negotiated) 'sometimes-on' connection. Now, affordable consumer broadband (less than R400/month according to international studies) for 1,500,000 well-off South Africans would provide a monthly income to Telkom of only R600,000,000, with no extra call costs, and I can guarantee the line will be totally saturated within 5 years. The broader African telecomms market is growing rapidly, and because Africa is currently so far behind (lowest average landlines per capita in the world by far), the current huge growth is mainly in the form of tens of millions of new landlines - probably 50 to 100 million new landlines in the next 20 years, and let's face it, that is MUCH better business than the SAn consumer broadband market, brings more income and won't saturate your pipe nearly as quickly (and it also happens to make more sense from a pure "African renaissance" perspective too - millions of landlines are far more important to Africa's growth than good pings to game servers for some rich kids). The co-owners of SAT-3 are going to make a LOT of money on licensing SAT-3 bandwidth to fixed-line voice telecomms providers all over Africa. They cannot generate nearly as much income from consumer broadband.
Let's be realistic, we'd all be doing the same thing if we owned Telkom, as much as you or I would like to see proper consumer broadband in SA, it doesn't make sense on SAT-3. And SAT-3 is shared by nearly 20 countries too, only one of which is Nigeria, which alone has a population nearly three times that of South Africa.
To just assume that "when the time comes, there will (magically) be a new undersea cable somewhere" is a bit silly, and certainly makes no business sense at all. If it were mine, I wouldn't go saturate my $620million 120 Gbps 25-year lifespan African connection within the first five years and then just "hope for the best" after that.
BTW, I don't think Sentech uses SAT-3 for tier-1 connection, as far as I know their backbone provider is Internet Solutions, which means satellite.
Africa *will* get more bandwidth, but the big companies will only invest it in "big-time" once the *demand* side reaches "critical mass" - in other words, they will only invest in it once Africa's economy grows larger / richer. And for this to happen, landlines must first come to places where they are scarce (i.e. most of Africa), they are still a more important basis for business development.
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I for one am happy to get a (slow) 128Kb always on connection to my home at reasonable cost (say R500 a month) so the myWireless option is sufficient for me and for most people.
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Yes, me too.
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If you are going to stream DVDs then sure you will need megabroadband. Besides, apart from political influence this can be achieved thanks to breakthroughs by amongst others,Intel, that will revolutionise optical data transmission and reduce costs to a fraction of what they are today.
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Sounds unlikely, could you provide some references? If you're talking about optical routers, the routing electronics limitations are not what limits SAT-3 to 120 Gbps.
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I would still like to know what is in the 24 month contract and for example, (in clear english) what happens if my 128k myWireless only gives speeds of 4KB/sec in month 15 or so.. then can I complain? I mean if nothing changed and I didnt move?
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You could probably do nothing. I have the contract here with me, and it says: "9.3 Services are used at the customers own risk and Sentech makes no warranty and or guarantee that the Services will meet the customers requirements, be uninterrupted, complete, timely, secure or error free. Although advised that the customer is in a coverage area, there is no guarantee or warranty given against interference and or use of the goods." The "Service" is defined in terms that make no reference to bandwidth at all, just an indication that some two-way wireless communications with IP will take place.
Anyone else interpret the contract differently?