Power situation long term?

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HavocXphere

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I've been thinking how these next few years are going to play out.

Right now we've got a 1000-2000W (being stage 2 loadshedding as defined) shortfall.

The next generation capacity coming online in June 2015 is Medupi unit 6 which is 800MW. Between now and June 2015, demand in electricity will grow by roughly 450MW. (3% pa growth per official records). So they'll have to keep up the blackouts even if Medupi manages to keep the current deadline.

The next generation capacity online is the next Medupi unit at 9 months after the first unit thus March 2016...again 800MW...but during those 9 months demand will have grown by ~1400MW (4.5%x~31GW). Same for all the following Medupi units.

So essentially they're not building capacity fast enough to *maintain* the current level of loadshedding let alone get rid of it. The above also didn't factor in winter and assumed that no existing plants break during the next ~2 years.

These numbers aren't even close to working out...

I'm starting to think this is the reason for Zuma's surprise Russian nuclear agreement...
 
Once countries fall behind the demand it becomes extremely difficult to get on top of.

It has been seen around the world. That fact + our lovely zoo of a government doesn't paint a pretty picture.
 
I would posit that the *paying* customer base may start taking their business elsewhere.
If reliable Electricity isn't for sale, then self generation starts becoming more and more attractive, especially at current rates, and the pricing its heading rapidly towards. Its also going to be a lot more reliable than Eskom.

180k will get the average house with 20kw daily usage offgrid including batteries in todays money.
(Say about 5kw panels on the roof, and 30kw of battery, plus a 3kw backup generator to cater for repeated winter outages past 2 days of no sun, and all inverters etc for a single phase household)

Some Math / Justification on that
20KW daily usage = 830W/hr on average.
5KW panels will generate over 15KW in winter, and well over 30KW in summer daily, so deficit is 5KW/day or zero in summer.

Assuming 5KW / day worst case scenario deficit
You need roughly 3 x (3 days of battery) x 2 (50% discharge) for usage.
- Batteries shouldn't be drained past 50%, so halve the rated value.
- Cater for 3 days of worst case scenario of no sun.
- Add a generator for generation for worst case scenario getting worse, and batteries go below that point of discharge.

With that in mind, deficit is 5KW odd in winter, so 3 x 5 = 15KW for 3 days of discharge (say 3 days of cloudy weather) x 2 (can't discharge lead acid/agm/crystal batteries more than 50%) = roughly 30KW required in batteries.

28.8KW of battery can be had for a little over R1/Whr eg / 20x12v@120Ah= 28800W which can be run in 24V or 48V easily (battery inverters usually run in 24v or 48v sizing)

12v@120Ah Gel Lead Acid is currently R1500 at retail, or less, which = R30,000 for 28.8KW per 5 years usage worse case.
The good news is that battery prices are headed down, not up.

5KW of panels looks like 18 panels * 300W
300W panels are in the R11/w range retail, so roughly R60,000

Panels + Batteries = R90,000

MPPT PV Inverter should be about R20,000 (or less)
Mounting + 3KW Generator say R10,000
DC -> AC Battery inverter about R20,000 (or less), oversized so that the system is scalable if necessary.

Total so far - R140,000
Add installation, say another R10,000 (1-2 days of work) and replacement batteries in 5 years, and you're looking at closer to R180,000 for an offgrid system over a 10 year lifespan.

If you start looking at that over 10 year terms, thats a lot more affordable, even if you cater in replacing batteries every 5 years.

Essentially, if you have a R1500 bill a month in electricity, its roughly time to start looking at going completely offgrid, as it will payoff by the 10 year mark.
Math isn't quite there yet, as 600KW/month (20KW day x 30days) is R936 @ CoCT rates of R1.56 /KW. Given a 15% increase each year + other bill costs, its creeping ever closer to parity though.
I'm happy paying that premium to have reliable electricity in house, and I'll guarantee you that the costs will be cheaper for self generation within 5 years.

R1500 x 12 = R18,000 / year.
R18,000 * 10 years = R180,000

Take into account that Eskom is both raising pricing year on year, and becoming ever more unreliable, its hard to see how the medium sized household isn't looking at going solar. (Not that I have a blog called http://goingsolar.co.za :) )
 
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There's a general trend: As our caring and omnicompetent government takes on more and more responsibility for people's lives, you have to do it yourself anyway.

Government provides free education for everyone. If you want an educated child, you have to do it yourself (such as pay a private school).
Government protects us from criminals with the police. If you want security, do it yourself and get private security.
Government provides healthcare for everyone. If you want healthcare that won't kill you, do it yourself and get private healthcare.
Government provides electricity to everyone. If you want electricity, do it yourself and get private electricity.
In its generosity, Government provides housing, water, roads, jobs, and a hundred other services ...
 
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Things will get progressively worse for a long time before they ever get better (if they ever get better). The ANC can't sugar coat this one. It's proof of their national mismanagement.
 
Garyvdh said:
Things will get progressively worse for a long time before they ever get better (if they ever get better). The ANC can't sugar coat this one. It's proof of their national mismanagement.
Click to expand...

They can and they will sugarcoat it. What else have they ever done than sugarcoating all their crimes ?

It's just that not a single person in his/her right would ever dream of believing a word of all the sugarcoating.
 
lsheed_cn said:
180k will get the average house with 20kw daily usage offgrid including batteries in todays money.
(Say about 5kw panels on the roof, and 30kw of battery, plus a 3kw backup generator to cater for repeated winter outages past 2 days of no sun, and all inverters etc for a single phase household)
Click to expand...
Assuming all your detailed calculations, and your assumptions, are correct, then the R180K capital outlay could well be a feasible solution to many consumers. I would certainly be willing to spend the R180K for a stable & constant elec supply in my home.
It also has the benefit of less potential damage to appliances such as compressor-dependent appliances, i.e. fridges & freezers
 
is this why we beginning to see big shopping centers building huge electricity generation plants?

like the one in Eastgate roof level, and next to the taxi rank, it was never there before, was an enormous empty parking lot.
( I remember studying my parking for my driving test there)

smart money on them going to start "selling" electricity, will recoup investment and make a huge profit,
and going forward some clever guys gonna start driving around with generators on the back of bakkies, keep your buisness online for R50 a day, or something like that...

gonna be interesting where this is going, wonder if were the only country in recent times that suffering this fate?
 
lsheed_cn said:
12v@120Ah Gel Lead Acid is currently R1500 at retail, or less,
Click to expand...

Wait wait wait .... give me this supplier contact immediately, I will buy all his stock and pre order for the next 10 years if I can get these 120ah GEL batteries at R1500 or less.
 
eg2505 said:
is this why we beginning to see big shopping centers building huge electricity generation plants?

like the one in Eastgate roof level, and next to the taxi rank, it was never there before, was an enormous empty parking lot.
( I remember studying my parking for my driving test there)

smart money on them going to start "selling" electricity, will recoup investment and make a huge profit,
and going forward some clever guys gonna start driving around with generators on the back of bakkies, keep your buisness online for R50 a day, or something like that...

gonna be interesting where this is going, wonder if were the only country in recent times that suffering this fate?
Click to expand...

Nope look at Ghana

Ghana Power Cuts Extended to Coca-Cola and Unilever Plants
By Ekow Dontoh and Neo Khanyile Dec 2, 2014

President John Dramani Mahama created a Ministry of Power last month to deal with... Read More
Ghana said it will cut power to factories including ones run by Unilever NV and Coca-Cola Co. to offset a worsening shortage of electricity.

Factories will lose power for 48 hours and then have continuous supply for six days, the Electricity Company of Ghana said on its website. Electricity will be available to residential areas for 24 hours, followed by cuts for 12 hours, the company said. The new schedule runs from yesterday through Jan. 1. Ghana is West Africa’s second-largest economy and the second-largest gold producer in Africa.

“The power cuts are a matter of necessity,” Melissa Verreynne, an economist at NKC Independent Economists based near Cape Town, South Africa, said “The negative impact on economic growth, productivity, in the manufacturing sector especially, will be notable.”

Ghana cut its economic growth forecast for 2015 in about half because of soaring inflation and chronic power shortages that are curbing investor sentiment. President John Dramani Mahama created a Ministry of Power last month to deal with shortages that worsened this year because of a lack of natural gas and low water levels at the largest hydroelectric dam.
Click to expand...
 
Ianf1 said:
Nope look at Ghana
Click to expand...

so is this a uniquely African problem?
is this why when you look at a map from space of africa at night only a few nations are visible clearly, most of the rest are dark......

South africa, Nigeria, and Egypt being the most well lit up, everything else is dark.....
 
No, the problem is coming up everywhere. The USA has suffered under loopy EPA controls for so long that many states and large cities are facing serious power problems. Houston the oil city has regular power cuts, brownouts, for example. And in the People's Republic of California the grid is constantly failing...

Like us, their problems are at root political.
 
eg2505 said:
so is this a uniquely African problem?
Click to expand...
Yes & no.

Other countries get shaky grids too...but usually for different reasons. e.g. Ze Germans are battling with solar at the moment...lots of houses have PV panels on the roof pushing energy onto the grid...so depending on what the sun does the grid either has too much or too little juice (a situation the power companies are mighty p1ssed about as they need to pick up the slack/be idle).

Either way the end result is a shaky grid but still I'd prefer to have that problem rather than the local circus.

Plus remember the EU countries are interlinked...e.g. German and France both have a ton of capacity & can share. We can too...but we don't have any neighbors with enough raw capacity to make a difference.
 
Eskom presentation on managing a power system

[video=youtube;S-XzkJpEcEQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-XzkJpEcEQ&list=UU7zHWWPaa4bJJWt59VSw91g[/video]
 
Arthur said:
There's a general trend: As our caring and omnicompetent government takes on more and more responsibility for people's lives, you have to do it yourself anyway.

Government provides free education for everyone. If you want an educated child, you have to do it yourself (such as pay a private school).
Government protects us from criminals with the police. If you want security, do it yourself and get private security.
Government provides healthcare for everyone. If you want healthcare that won't kill you, do it yourself and get private healthcare.
Government provides electricity to everyone. If you want electricity, do it yourself and get private electricity.
In its generosity, Government provides housing, water, roads, jobs, and a hundred other services ...
Click to expand...

Holy cwap. A post from Arthur that I agree with.
 
Our country needs true leadership if we want to get out of this mess.
 
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