poweralert stage 2.....

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For example here is the snapshot for today that was updated yesterday at 12.
Will check again after 12Screenshot_20231227_105100_Chrome.jpg
 
Coal drops to 15GW, Koeberg data back with a few drops, maybe accounting error, looks like everyone is sleeping off xmas lunch?
1703667796743.png
 
wingnut771 said:
Coal drops to 15GW, Koeberg data back with a few drops, maybe accounting error, looks like everyone is sleeping off xmas lunch?
Click to expand...
Great, so now we have to add lazy and hangovers to the long list of imbecile activities going on :sick:
 
Lupus said:
Updated early, over 2GW jumpView attachment 1638481
Click to expand...
Mm sure, but it's still trending down, which is how the predictions on poweralert work. So although the data looks fine now, units are on the grid, etc, so it looks like a perfect picture. As the day goes on its statistically likely that units will go down if you are projecting on trends (which fits dataportal reporting of most of the OCGT used when the loss is supposedly not that big), also that updated data you posted is still from yesterday, and is definitely on a trend down from what it's been over the last few weeks in any event

SmartSelect_20231227_114520_Chrome.jpg
My opinion isn't gospel, it's just correlations between datasets I'm trying to figure out since we apparently don't have **** to work with at any point lol

Dataportal seems to correlate somewhat often with sokolic looking like ****
 
DarkSt0rm said:
Mm sure, but it's still trending down, which is how the predictions on poweralert work. So although the data looks fine now, units are on the grid, etc, so it looks like a perfect picture. As the day goes on its statistically likely that units will go down if you are projecting on trends (which fits dataportal reporting of most of the OCGT used when the loss is supposedly not that big), also that updated data you posted is still from yesterday, and is definitely on a trend down from what it's been over the last few weeks in any event

View attachment 1638489
My opinion isn't gospel, it's just correlations between datasets I'm trying to figure out since we apparently don't have **** to work with at any point lol

Dataportal seems to correlate somewhat often with sokolic looking like ****
Click to expand...
Nope it's from today, just the TS hasn't updated yet.
I've been trying to figure out the data sets for years
 
IMG_2679.jpg


Saw someone in the street next to mine installed a wind generator. Seems to be working fairly decent with the wind today.

1703672693339.png
Wonder what the output is. Probably 200w - 300w?

Seems the roof isn't optimal for panels, so they went the wind route.
 
wingnut771 said:
Coal drops to 15GW, Koeberg data back with a few drops, maybe accounting error, looks like everyone is sleeping off xmas lunch?
View attachment 1638477
Click to expand...
I think this may just be a case of turning off some of it as wind was more than enough to cover demand... just burning excess coal for the sake of it when everything is covered and storage dams are full is a waste of money
 
Temujin said:
I think this may just be a case of turning off some of it as wind was more than enough to cover demand... just burning excess coal for the sake of it when everything is covered and storage dams are full is a waste of money
Click to expand...
Not sure things can be "turned off" that quickly, I mean think of how long a coal fire takes to go out..
 
Brian_G said:
Not sure things can be "turned off" that quickly, I mean think of how long a coal fire takes to go out..
Click to expand...
Yeah, I don't mean 'switch off and desync off grid'... maybe 'reduced' may be better word? :unsure:
 
Grieta Thanburg said:
The more you look at it, the more it's going to bug you. Take a break while there's no loadshedding. Enjoy the week or two.
Click to expand...
Nah I'm busy figuring out all the various datasets lol
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Going to train a model to figure this **** out based on all of it
 
DarkSt0rm said:
Nah I'm busy figuring out all the various datasets lol
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Going to train a model to figure this **** out based on all of it
Click to expand...
Aint gonna happen
 
It is like the weather report
We guesstimate what tomorrows weather will be by looking at past behaviour with the same conditions/variables we have now

And yet the weather report can miss what actually happens

That is what happens when you use the past to predict the future

That is how load shedding predictions work and precisely why it sometimes changes

Variables are exactly that variable
 
leon.davibe said:
It is like the weather report
We guesstimate what tomorrows weather will be by looking at past behaviour with the same conditions/variables we have now

And yet the weather report can miss what actually happens

That is what happens when you use the past to predict the future

That is how load shedding predictions work and precisely why it sometimes changes

Variables are exactly that variable
Click to expand...

The weather doesn't typically suffer from sabotage induced changes, yet to see a cadre use some decolonised science to black out the sun and score on the portable street lights tender.
 
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