I've been capturing data every hour since I started a few days ago, and its not really accurate at the moment with how many units are coming up and down for maintenance, so things have been looking a LOT worse than they realistically are I think. Things are actually looking better now than they did this morning for instance.
Code:
Timestamp | Color | Direction | DeclaredAvailability | LoadForecast | MaxAvailability
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2024/01/01 08:00:00 | Orange | Up | 20216 | 18223 | 23481,529
2024/01/01 09:00:00 | Orange | Stable | 20676 | 18845 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 10:00:00 | Orange | Stable | 20676 | 19275 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 11:00:00 | Orange | Stable | 20676 | 19386 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 12:00:00 | Orange | Stable | 20676 | 19371 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 13:00:00 | Orange | Down | 20676 | 18908 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 14:00:00 | Green | Stable | 20676 | 18382 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 15:00:00 | Green | Stable | 20676 | 18172 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 16:00:00 | Green | Stable | 20676 | 18206 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 17:00:00 | Green | Up | 20676 | 18431 | 23941,529
2024/01/01 18:00:00 | Orange | Up | 20826 | 19004 | 24091,529
2024/01/01 19:00:00 | Orange | Stable | 20876 | 20332 | 24141,529
2024/01/01 20:00:00 | Orange | Down | 20976 | 20233 | 24241,529
2024/01/01 21:00:00 | Orange | Down | 20976 | 19056 | 24241,529
2024/01/01 22:00:00 | Green | Down | 20976 | 18035 | 24241,529
2024/01/01 23:00:00 | Green | Stable | 20976 | 17114 | 24241,529
2024/01/02 00:00:00 | Green | Stable | 21254,628 | 16732 | 24519,796
2024/01/02 01:00:00 | Green | Stable | 21248,257 | 16574 | 24513,063
2024/01/02 02:00:00 | Green | Stable | 21205,885 | 16425 | 24470,33
2024/01/02 03:00:00 | Green | Up | 21163,514 | 16574 | 24427,598
2024/01/02 04:00:00 | Green | Up | 21121,142 | 17172 | 24384,865
2024/01/02 05:00:00 | Black | Up | 20908,771 | 17962 | 24172,132
2024/01/02 06:00:00 | Black | Up | 20535,4 | 18468 | 23798,4
2024/01/02 07:00:00 | Black | Up | 20535,4 | 19289 | 23798,4Logic tells me we will probably have a few days of loadshedding this week and next as a precaution, while usage slowly builds back to normal. Data is very heavily skewed at the moment, it looks like we have like close to 11gw offline for "planned maintenance" still, and I think its planned due to how consistently they have been able to maintain the buffer, there hasn't been massive sudden loss of availability.
I haven't been able to collect enough actual "real" data of the country running as normal to start forming a baseline, so its still just thumb sucking for now >.< My forecast says demand is up to 24GW tomorrow already which seems high considering we are hovering around 19/20 still and tomorrow is a public holiday still
