I don't understand, so please humor me and explain like I'm a five year old.
You only have three data points, are they measurements on the hour or an average of the previous hour?
What if two units went down just after 04:00 and the output of the remaining units was increased to match the largely unchanged demand. Two more units go down just after 05:00 and the output of the remaining units was increased to their maximum output, coincidentally roughly matching the previous output?
By 05:00 hydro and pumped water generation has increased to over 1.9GW, OCGT production is being ramped up too. At this point they're not going to be able to meet the projected demand during the morning peak and will have to implement load shedding.
By 05:30 we have loadshedding and supply of hydro and pumped generation has been reduced, not because it's run out, but because it's much faster than reducing output from a coal plant. Demand is being met and it's safer to keep these in reserve.
At 06:00 OCGT output is over 2GW, so no shortage of diesel.
Long story short, I don't see how you can draw conclusions from that data. What was the maximum output from coal on each day? Were the available coal plants run at their maximum outputs on the 17th? What about on the 18th?