SA Politics Thread Part 10 : The GNU Has Crashed

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Not happy reading for Champy...

The ANC's base is cracking

When things are relatively stable, (SRF Q4 and SABI Q1), the ANC has a baseline of around 40% and 58% turnout number of 43%-45%. When things are unstable (February/SRF Q1 and budget/VAT/SAIRR) it drops dramatically to 30%.

Thus, while the ANC probably has a pool of potential of between 40% and 45%, there are a 10% - 15% of ANC voters who are very unhappy with the party, and willing to shift away when things get difficult (either to become undecided - SRF Q1 - or to DA/MK/EFF - SAIRR Q1)

This, in turn, is unprecedented for the ANC. In the big picture, it has lost a lot of support over 15 years and is down to its core, die-hard supporters. That even a chunk of those ANC voters are now fluid, speaks to a party in dire straights.
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The DA. More stable, its support far more solid than the ANC, and, encouragingly for the party, with the clear potential for growth. The IRR numbers, the most recent, demonstrate that every party that opposed the VAT increase - DA/MK/EFF - grew at the expense of the ANC.

The DA's stability is likely linked to how it fundamentally perceived at the moment, particularly by its voters: as a stabilising force, making the GNU credible and keeping the ANC in check. Its baseline number in the IRR survey is remarkable, 30%.

But the DA has a long history of doing incredibly well between elections, and then tapering off in actual election campaigning begins. We also don't know what happens to that number at lower turnout. Suffice to say, it, like MK/EFF is able to benefit when ANC bleeds.
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In summary: ANC base is cracked. Has potential for 40%-45%, to do that, needs to secure 10-15% of its voters who are very shaky. DA/MK/EFF all somewhat solid/up/down a bit. In opposite direction, have potential to win over long term fluid ANC voters, need to work out how.
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Sideshow Bob said:
I am consoling him as we chat here. His studio is completely exploded and imploded.
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MalcomZ said:
Keeping them out of power in KZN when they got the most votes was always short term thinking. The MK will rule KZN eventually.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1909093828083986816
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Depends when exactly is eventually, At this rate, I doubt it would be in the near future, they had an opportunity to negotiate for that when they were invited by the ANC for talks before the GNU, they messed that up, recently now after the ANC /DA fallout, they were again invited by the ANC for talks, they rejected it outright.

They are a party whose sole reason for existence is to please and protect Zuma, governing is the last thing on their minds, that's why they have 10 vacancies in parliament and that's why they are incapable of getting just the 5% needed to govern KZN.
 
ToxicBunny said:
I think it was a "threat" previously, this is now official GTFO type of thing.
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I really don't think Taiwan has a choice. China didn't budge to US trade war threats so Taiwan & SA are minnows in comparison.

At best, they can just delay the inevitable.
 
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