SA Politics Thread Part 12

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Quite a few by-elections today. We start off with a ward in rural EC where they vote ANC until the End Times, so not much discussion is needed there. In Gauteng, the ANC should retain the Soweto ward as the opposition is highly split between 5 different parties, with no clear party in 2nd place. Very little difference between the 2021 vote share (in brackets) and the 2024 provincial vote share, despite the inclusion of the MK.

Like in EC, the Limpopo ward is super safe for the ANC. In the North West, the Forum 4 Service Delivery (a local party) made significant inroads into the ANC vote share. However, they are not competing in the by-election, so the ANC should gain quite a lot here.

Two by-elections in the rural Western Cape. Although in 2024, it was a close three-way race, I expect the races today to be straight ANC v PA races with the DA losing vote share, as has been the pattern since the 2024 election.


ProvinceMunicipalityWard No.PartyWard Vote Share (%)
Eastern CapeDr A.B. Xuma15ANC76.3
GautengJHB29ANC40.3 (38.8)
PA12.5 (13.1)
EFF11.2 (12.5)
DA11.0 (10.0)
MK10.1 (--)
Action SA7.1 (13.9)
LimpopoMusina2ANC75.4
DA111
North WestRamotshere Moila7ANC57.4
Forum 4 Service Delivery35.5 (not running in this by-election)
Western CapeLangeberg4ANC32.3 (36.5)
PA30.6 (1.7)
DA28.9 (31.7)
Swellendam6ANC38.6 (51.9)
PA30.4 (0.4)
DA25.6 (34.5)
 
Quite a few by-elections today. We start off with a ward in rural EC where they vote ANC until the End Times, so not much discussion is needed there. In Gauteng, the ANC should retain the Soweto ward as the opposition is highly split between 5 different parties, with no clear party in 2nd place. Very little difference between the 2021 vote share (in brackets) and the 2024 provincial vote share, despite the inclusion of the MK.

Like in EC, the Limpopo ward is super safe for the ANC. In the North West, the Forum 4 Service Delivery (a local party) made significant inroads into the ANC vote share. However, they are not competing in the by-election, so the ANC should gain quite a lot here.

Two by-elections in the rural Western Cape. Although in 2024, it was a close three-way race, I expect the races today to be straight ANC v PA races with the DA losing vote share, as has been the pattern since the 2024 election.


ProvinceMunicipalityWard No.PartyWard Vote Share (%)
Eastern CapeDr A.B. Xuma15ANC76.3
GautengJHB29ANC40.3 (38.8)
PA12.5 (13.1)
EFF11.2 (12.5)
DA11.0 (10.0)
MK10.1 (--)
Action SA7.1 (13.9)
LimpopoMusina2ANC75.4
DA111
North WestRamotshere Moila7ANC57.4
Forum 4 Service Delivery35.5 (not running in this by-election)
Western CapeLangeberg4ANC32.3 (36.5)
PA30.6 (1.7)
DA28.9 (31.7)
Swellendam6ANC38.6 (51.9)
PA30.4 (0.4)
DA25.6 (34.5)
I saw the DA sent Gwarube to Noordgesig, so Zille is most definitely not going to launch her campaign there. There is however another by election coming up in one of the larney suburbs, it will probably be that one.
 
I saw the DA sent Gwarube to Noordgesig, so Zille is most definitely not going to launch her campaign there. There is however another by election coming up in one of the larney suburbs, it will probably be that one.
I am waiting for Zille's entry into Soweto for campaign. Forum is gonna be lit.
 
I saw the DA sent Gwarube to Noordgesig, so Zille is most definitely not going to launch her campaign there. There is however another by election coming up in one of the larney suburbs, it will probably be that one.
Yes, that's the only social media post I saw about the campaign so it does not appear they are putting much effort into it, unlike with Brink/Mamelodi by-election.
 
@TheChamp Any comments about the user pays principle?

AGSA stated that its analysis identified nearly 1.1 million TV licence numbers associated with non-payment. “Of these, a significant portion (801,604, i.e. 73%) was associated with government entities and government officials,” it said.

 
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