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Good! all talk no action...
Mweb is the one with the right path and they will become more than just huge in the next 5 years. They are making a profit, this is a business, they wouldn't be doing what they doing if they were not making money.
They would be a lot better off selling their subscriber base to a larger telco (like Neotel, perhaps) with infrastructure to off-set the growing massive connectivity costs - at least that way M-Web's international services wouldn't drop every time a wave breaks on the beach at Mtunzini.
Great post! It's really interesting how Naspers re-aligned MWeb into their "Pay-TV" portfolio by moving it away from their "Internet" portfolio. For the 1HY11 results they have re-stated all their numbers for comparative purposes; only problem is that MWeb is now lost amongst the huge Multichoice numbers.I'm sure they believe that, but the facts say otherwise. In many ways, they are in the same situation as Neotel - their margin is squeezed by the behaviour of a monopoly, who has no intention of letting up, and they have a Big Brother (appropriate term, if you think about it) who can continue to fund their losses for years. What has become really challenging for them is that their margin dropped for every subscriber they migrated from dial-up to ADSL (we all know Telkom takes most of the money).
I'm intrigued by your second comment - that they wouldn't be doing what they were doing if they weren't making a profit. Given that Naspers shareholders are paying for this, that may be true in the long term, but certainly not in the short term. As with any business (Neotel included) investors tolerate short term losses precisely because of potential future profits. I just don't see where M-Web's future profits would come from - they own no real infrastructure, they are essentially dependent on Telkom for their primary margin, and they are in a highly competitive industry where others can undercut them, even if they fail. They look more like a cost centre for DSTV.
Naspers is trying to reposition M-Web as part of their "content" portfolio, so that they don't have to report on ISP losses separately. The issue that Naspers faces is that it's a listed entity (just like Tata), and that shareholders will punish it if it doesn't sort out M-Web eventually.
M-Web's current business model is interesting, but I wouldn't describe it as game-changing, or even as hugely profitable in the long-term. If you are a Naspers shareholder (which I suspect you aren't or you'd have read their annual reports), you're better off supporting their Chinese adventures (which also blow hot and cold, but have good upside), and hoping that they can roll as much of M-Web as they can into their (profitable) pay TV portfolio. They would be a lot better off selling their subscriber base to a larger telco (like Neotel, perhaps) with infrastructure to off-set the growing massive connectivity costs - at least that way M-Web's international services wouldn't drop every time a wave breaks on the beach at Mtunzini.
Margin declined slightly mainly due to:
- cost pressures to grow sub base
- increased sport content costs
- MWeb’s investment in bandwidth
The sooner Neotel realizes it is the new Sentech and should only be doing wholesale, the better things will be for Neotel and consumers alike.
Many people are clueless ...... Neotel is backed by a company MANY times larger than Telkom, Naspers, DarkfiberAfrica etc. etc. combined. They will make losses for many years simply because they will have to make massive investments in fiber and other core infrastructure countrywide before they have a proper national footprint. Their only real failure has been in the consumer space.... and for this Panday has probably had to fall on his sword. As for the Transtel staff, many of them never even knew how to spell the word “service” this as they had never had the experience of attending to REAL customers. Many in the industry were well aware that Neotel inherited a nightmare with many Transtel staff..... who indeed will be the main target of retrenchments as the company tries to refocus and become customer centric.
As for the commercial side, they are already a threat to Telkom and in certain industries (i.e. financial services, banking etc.) they are taking market share in a big way as Telkom lacks the international clout or access that Neotel has in their parent company, Tata Communications. Neotel may face many hurdles, but with a shareholder with very deep pockets, failure is not one of them. Looking to the future, it is Telkom that faces an implosion far more serious than Neotel. Telkom has no real strategic shareholder, no leadership and a shareprice that for ages has only gone in one direction. In Telkom, the investment community have already clearly voted with their feet?
[highlight]I hear that Neotel detests Sentech and are bitching about the bandwidth that ICASA has allocated to Sentech who are just sitting on it.[/highlight] In Neotel’s opinion, they [Neotel] could use the allocation more productively and are agitating for ICASA to reallocate the bandwidth away from Sentech to providers who would utilise it more productively – not necessarily to themselves (although they would prefer that obviously). Hence the ‘taking action’ issue – laying fibre optic cable, digging-up streets, laying out bribes, setting aside contingency funds for the inevitable union hassles and enduring the bad PR is an expensive exercise. They must be sure that ICASA won’t change the goalposts. This is an expensive one-shot deal.
You're assuming they are making a loss at an opertaional level. Remember their own network/service is only 10 months old, barely out of the starting blocks and its inevitable there would be some capital startup costs.margin is squeezed by the behaviour of a monopoly, who has no intention of letting up .... who can continue to fund their losses for years.
Even if Neotel had the appetite to buy MWEB's base (incl. a fat premium for potential/projected growth based on current performance), what would they do with them?They would be a lot better off selling their subscriber base to a larger telco (like Neotel, perhaps)
You're missing the boat... it's not only those few that are leaving. They are the lucky ones whose contracts are coming to an end. We are referring to those workers about to be retrenched.Hey guys and gals,
If a CEO's contract is about to end then it should not be a huge surprise when.. heyshoowow... it ends.
When it comes to staff departures.. the PR person and Mike Silber leaving for a better opportunity is hardly a slight on Neotel.
And any person with a reasonable knowledge of financial accounting would know that you don't setup a capital intensive business and recoup a positive EBITDA in the first five years.
Neotel has failed the consumer by providing a crappy CDMA 2000 standard for a developing market, and not providing Fibre to the home (but that would be inordinately expensive considering LLU isn't in place yet.)
Stop jumping on the panic bandwagon and enjoy a little moment of commonsense.