The ANC is dying

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DreamKing

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ANC rule ‘over by 2024’

July 6 2012 at 07:45am

The ANC is dying, and will lose its parliamentary majority at or before the 2024 national elections, says the head of the unit for risk analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations.

In a policy brief published by the institute, Frans Cronje, who is also SAIRR deputy CEO, said the ruling party had entered a period of terminal decline.

Cronje said the party’s demise was now inevitable, and it was time for South Africans to start considering a future without it.

“We do not make this forecast recklessly but rather because the evidence points overwhelmingly in this direction,” said Cronje.

He said ANC support among South Africans was falling rapidly.

“It is true the ANC won 63 percent of the national vote in 1994 and increased that to 65.9 percent in 2009. However, this figure is misleading as it ignores the growing number of people who are choosing not to vote at all.

“While more than five out of 10 South Africans turned out to vote for the ANC in 1994, that figure (fell) to less than four out of 10 in the 2009 election. In a sense the ANC, for all its pretension as the ‘will of the people’, is now a minority government.”

The decline in ANC support did not result from an opposition party drawing its supporters, but from a growing number of people losing confidence in the party.

“Data from the police suggests that they are now responding to three service delivery protests every day.”

Cronje said the decline in ANC support and the rise in protest action had little to do with alleged failures in service delivery.

The drop in support had its origins in several areas. Among these he highlighted the overall failure of the public school system, and corruption.

“Only one out of every two black South Africans who enter Grade 1 will ever reach matric and only one out of 10 will pass maths. Hence black South Africans... have limited means to increase their own living standards outside of what the state, and by extension, the ANC can give them... “

The party had put candidates convicted of fraud and corruption on its election lists. “What this shows is that the ANC is not serious about addressing the failed education, low growth, unemployment, and corruption... If it is not addressing the reasons for its decline, it follows that the party must be in terminal decline,” Cronje said.

As to when the ANC’s national support levels would dip below 50 percent, opening the door to an opposition coalition to govern, “we think 2014 is too early, 2019 is plausible but uncertain, and 2024 is probable… “

Political analyst Professor Susan Booysen said Cronje’s analysis “is way out of touch with reality. It disregards the fact that many people who abstained from voting in recent elections, have also shown a vote of no-confidence in the DA. There is zero guarantee that their votes will convert to opposition support”.

Political analyst Dr Somadoda Fikeni said Cronje’s assertion that the ANC would lose a parliamentary majority was based on an assumption there was a linear path of growth of the opposition. “But, as the opposition parties expand, we will see similar internal tensions to those in the ANC.”

Political Bureau
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http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/anc-rule-over-by-2024-1.1335560#.T_bcI5EpKX0

:)
 
Old news. ANC has being dying for ages. I recon equal or close to equal power share by 2020.

Too many factions now. Too much infighting. No service delivery. Its tickets for them.
 
I suggest euthanasia, put it out of its misery before the ANC burns the place to the ground.
 
gregmcc said:
2024?! There will be no brains left in this country by then!
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The ANC already has no brains at all, just look whenever you see Zuma on the news, he is always reading everything he says from a piece of paper, he is so unintelligent that he cant even remember what to say so he must put it on paper.

Barack Obama who is also black doesn't do that because he had proper education, not like Zuma that only went to school till Grade 5, meanwhile people are struggling to get work while having a university degree. No wonder the ANC have no brains.

I wont support them even if they gave me a million rand.
 
Im optimistic for SA in a sense that the ANC is doomed to fail, change will come then.

Internally I reckon they wish the could fix the country and do the rights things. Its just they dont know how and realize themselves incompetent. They know what needs to be done but just cant do it. A freedom fighter doesn't necessarily make a good minister unfortunately.
 
Given all the factions and in-fighting I'm not suprised. It's sad to see how the leading party has degraded into chaos.
 
2019 will be an inflection point in the voter demographic. If the assumption is made that a generation is approximately 25 years, then
a new voter generation born in the nineties will arrive on the scene. Simultaneously, an existing generation will move into middle age.

In ordinary democracies, that inflection results in a political watershed. The twenty-somethings start to imagine they can change the world, and the fifty-somethings start to become nervous about the damage the twenty-somethings may cause.

Happily, we do not have to worry about the effects this may have on the ZA political scene. As the ANC is already a coalition, there will be no need to reintroduce the country to the joys of coalition government.

The ANC will be in government long after 2024. The political frontier briefly opened in 1994, and for a while we played silly buggers. South Africans are slow learners, so relax and let the next generation worry about removing the ANC.
 
ghoti said:
Old news. ANC has being dying for ages. I recon equal or close to equal power share by 2020.

Too many factions now. Too much infighting. No service delivery. Its tickets for them.
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so true, anyone who does a bit of reading the news daily knows this. I give them another 3 elections.
 
“Only one out of every two black South Africans who enter Grade 1 will ever reach matric and only one out of 10 will pass maths. Hence black South Africans... have limited means to increase their own living standards outside of what the state, and by extension, the ANC can give them... “
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The ANC does not want to educate the masses - it relies on them for votes. It is a very cynical and cruel approach to retaining power.

the ANC is not serious about addressing the failed education, low growth, unemployment, and corruption... If it is not addressing the reasons for its decline, it follows that the party must be in terminal decline,” Cronje said.
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No - it means they are achieving their goal of maintaining a functionally illiterate electorate.
 
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