The Brexit Thread

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The Voice said:
I'm all for hard-working people coming to the UK and enriching it and themselves. Hell, I'm one of them - to think otherwise would be hypocritical. The problem is that with the front door permanently open, it's not only people who want to work that have come here. It's also a haven for criminals who know that once they're here that they cannot be extradited under certain EU laws. It's the "Romanian bag thieves" (yes, that's an actual term used here), and the loads of unemployed scroungers living in Hyde Park. The people who come here solely for the benefits system and free healthcare, 1/3 of EU students simply leaving without ever having to pay back their student debt, and loads of other examples. Those are the ones that aren't welcome here.

Unfortunately, with Brexit, even our trusty "Polish builders" (also a term here - the British do love a good label) will now require some sort of work permit. Same for the bankers in London. I require a visa to live and work here - I don't see what all the fuss is about if others that have been enjoying a free ride now have to pay a bit more to continue staying here.
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Actually, most of the leeches came to Western Europe illegally before the restrictions were lifted in 2014 (Romania adhered in 2007 but the open border started in 2014). We have the same Romanian pickpockets in Paris, in Madrid, in Barcelona since more than 10 years.

For the students without paying back their loans, it's actually very very easy to recover money from other EU countries, the court decision is almost automatically recognized by other EU countries and you only have to get the local sheriff, so I don't see that as a big thing, or the amounts are too small maybe.

Lawyer friends frequently recover debts as low as 1000 euro for their clients in other EU countries on a % fee. British banks can perfectly do it.
 
Quite a good resume from CNN:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/29/news/economy/brexit-article-50-uk-eu-deal-obstacles/index.html

1. The divorce bill

The EU expects the U.K. to honor existing joint spending commitments even as it walks out the exit door in 2019.
EU members pay for infrastructure projects, social programs, scientific research and wages and pensions for EU bureaucrats. The current budget runs until 2020. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said recently that Britain will need to pay roughly £50 billion ($63 billion) as it leaves.
The U.K. has said it will honor its commitments but there's likely to be fierce wrangling over the size of the bill. The battle over money is expected to be one of the thorniest issues that negotiators will address, and may hold up discussion on other items.


2. The rights of migrants

EU rules allow Brits to live and work in any of the 28 member countries. EU citizens can do the same in Britain. That's all set to end once the U.K. lleaves.
More than 4 million people will be affected directly. About 3 million people from other EU states live in the U.K., and 1.2 million Brits live in other EU countries.
The most likely scenario is an agreement that will let migrants remain in the country of their choosing. But nothing is guaranteed.
Some Brits are taking out an insurance policy. They flooded the Republic of Ireland with tens of thousands of passport applications in the months after the June referendum in an effort to keep an EU passport. Germany, Italy, Sweden, Poland and Hungary also reported a surge in interest in the days immediately after the vote.
Meanwhile, some EU citizens have been completing a mountain of paperwork to apply for permanent resident status in the U.K.


3. Trade and tariffs

EU membership allows Britain to sell goods and services across the bloc under a free trade agreement. Brexit puts that all at risk.
It's no small matter: The EU is the U.K.'s biggest trading partner, providing a market for 44% of all British exports and supplying 53% of its imports.
Prime Minister Theresa May said in January that she wants to negotiate a clean break with the EU and a new free trade deal at the same time.
Big free trade deals, however, can take a decade to agree. EU officials say they won't even discuss a future trading relationship with Britain until other issues are settled.
May has stuck to her guns, warning European leaders that she would rather leave the EU with "no deal" than a "bad deal." Crashing out of the bloc would force Britain to operate under World Trade Organization rules -- meaning new trade barriers and red tape.


4. Three sacred cows

Deal or no deal, May will attempt to secure the best possible outcome for certain key industries including auto manufacturing, airlines and financial services.
The financial and related services sector accounts for 12% of U.K. GDP. London is the world's No.1 location for trading in foreign currencies.
London also handles about 75% of all trade in euro-denominated interest rate derivatives. Eurozone officials are likely to push for these transactions to be conducted within the EU.
A deal that preserves some banking access to EU markets would be a major win. A failure could cost London thousands of well paid jobs and billions in business.
If Britain crashes out of the EU and is forced to trade under WTO rules, automakers will face new tariffs on cars shipped to Europe, and higher costs on imported parts. Cars made in Britain get nearly 60% of their parts from outside the U.K. -- mostly from the EU -- and 56% of those cars are sold back into the EU.
"No deal would be the very worst case for the U.K. auto industry and would put at risk the competitiveness of the industry" said Ford's (F) European CEO Jim Farley on Wednesday.
Carmakers have already sought government assurances that they will be protected if Britain leaves the EU internal market. Nissan (NSANY) is said to have received some -- although the details have never been revealed.
Aviation presents its own thorny challenges. Flights to and from the U.K. are covered by an Open Skies agreement with the EU. If no replacement deal is reached on time, flights could be grounded.
Airlines need an agreement by the middle of next year so they can plan their flight schedules for 2019.
British airlines that want to continue to operate flights within the EU, for example from Germany to Italy, face another headache. They could be forced to establish EU subsidiaries and rework their ownership structures.


5. Border controls

The U.K. is an island nation but it still shares a land border with the EU.
The Republic of Ireland is a member of the EU (and will remain so), while neighboring Northern Ireland is part of the U.K. Residents currently enjoy free movement across the border.
Britain leaving Europe's single market, and its customs union, would present major new challenges in a region that was plagued by violence for decades. A new "hard border" could be the end result.

Scotland is considering holding a second independence referendum to break away from the U.K. and maintain EU membership.
And if Scotland votes to leave Britain, the British Isles could be home to two EU land borders.
Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014, with 55% of voters choosing to remain a part of the U.K.
Brexit may have changed the equation for Scots, however. The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has already demanded a second referendum. Scotland voted by a big margin against Brexit.
 
f2wohf said:
The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has already demanded a second referendum. Scotland voted by a big margin against Brexit.
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:crylaugh: ... the word is 'requested', Sturgeon doesn't get to demand a damn thing from her overlords.
 
The Voice said:
Jokes aside, I doubt it was ever a case of getting them over here because the Brits didn't want to do the work.
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It was, and still is a factor. In the farming sector (as an example) its almost always been Eastern Europeans, young Brits don't want to pick cauliflowers or pluck chickens for 8 hours a day...

An example
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/13/farmers-fear-eu-referendum

They flooded the market with people who would do the work for a fraction of what a Brit would do it for.
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Another tabloid myth, you might be unaware of it, but the UK has a national minimum wage (and it's a criminal offence if an employer is caught not complying with it), any legal worker makes damn sure it's complied with, whether from eastern Europe or east London...
 
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Dave said:
It was, and still is a factor. In the farming sector (as an example) its almost always been Eastern Europeans, young Brits don't want to pick cauliflowers or pluck chickens for 8 hours a day...



Another tabloid myth, you might be unaware of it, but the UK has a national minimum wage (and it's a criminal offence if an employer is caught not complying with it), any legal worker makes damn sure it's complied with, whether from eastern Europe or east London...
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The point was how many Brits are willing to work for minimum wage to pluck a chicken for 8 hours a day? Probably a really small percentage if you're lucky. Most think the wage is simply too low, while for someone from an Eastern European hole it's an insane amount for piss easy work. As long as that's the case, the minimum wage will never go up to an acceptable level, because it will never have to (and I'm not including London living wage). Take away the Europeans' right to work here, and suddenly we have ourselves a problem, and the minimum wage has to go up considerably.

There are loads of jobs advertised where the salary, while still minimum wage and within the law, simply doesn't match the work required. Brits will scoff at those and not bother applying while a Pole will jump at the opportunity. That's what's meant by "cheap labour" - knowing that all you'll ever have to pay is minimum wage. It's no wonder so many big corporations were on the side of Remain, when you consider that probably more than half their lower tier workforce is probably foreign and earning a lot less than what they'd have to pay a Brit for the same work.
 
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The Voice said:
The point was how many Brits are willing to work for minimum wage to pluck a chicken for 8 hours a day? Probably a really small percentage if you're lucky. Most think the wage is simply too low, while for someone from an Eastern European hole it's an insane amount for piss easy work. As long as that's the case, the minimum wage will never go up to an acceptable level, because it will never have to (and I'm not including London living wage). Take away the Europeans' right to work here, and suddenly we have ourselves a problem, and the minimum wage has to go up considerably.

There are loads of jobs advertised where the salary, while still minimum wage and within the law, simply doesn't match the work required. Brits will scoff at those and not bother applying while a Pole will jump at the opportunity. That's what's meant by "cheap labour" - knowing that all you'll ever have to pay is minimum wage. It's no wonder so many big corporations were on the side of Remain, when you consider that probably more than half their lower tier workforce is probably foreign and earning a lot less than what they'd have to pay a Brit for the same work.
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I think you've just completely reversed your earlier point about Eastern Europeans stealing jobs that Brits want and are now agreeing with me?

£7.50 an hour as a burger flipper isn't that bad a wage, and even at £10 an hour I doubt the majority of young Brits would want to work in a chicken factory or farmers field. It's been an Eastern European job since after WW2 (and in some places, even earlier).
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Seems the EU is so confident in itself without the UK that they drafted a resolution to allow them the next two years to revoke the trigger :crylaugh:

Source: http://nordic.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-50-can-be-revoked-2017-3
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That's always been the case though...

Even the story in your link mentions it.

The man who wrote Article 50 says Brexit could be reversed
Thomas Colson 03 Nov 2016 12:37 PM

Lord Kerr of Kinlochard told BBC News that "you can change your mind while the process is going on."

He said: "During that [two year] period, if a country were to decide actually we don't want to leave after all, everybody would be very cross about it being a waste of time.

"They might try to extract a political price but legally they couldn't insist that you leave," he added.
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Have they done it yet? I'm looking for cheap holiday destinations.
 
Dave said:
That's always been the case though...
Even the story in your link mentions it.
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It has always been an open question, the EU now seeks to officially legislate it. Substantial difference, leaving it be and letting a court decide should the UK try to back out is a perfectly fine option, but no, let's tell them beyond doubt they can get back in.

It reeks of the kind of desperation of a person who's been cheated on that kicks their lover out of their lives, but make sure they let them know they can still use the key to his/her apartment :D
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
It has always been an open question, the EU now seeks to officially legislate it. Substantial difference, leaving it be and letting a court decide should the UK try to back out is a perfectly fine option, but no, let's tell them beyond doubt they can get back in.

It reeks of the kind of desperation of a person who's been cheated on that kicks their lover out of their lives, but make sure they let them know they can still use the key to his/her apartment :D
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It would not have gone anyway to a court. It's a political decision, not a legal one.

Nothing on the Article 50 mentions that it's forever.
 
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