The Brexit Thread

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To be fair, in terms of absolute votes, both the Tories and the Lib Dems made gains, with the Lib Dems having had a greater proportional gain but a smaller absolute gain.

The real loser here is Labour - apparently one thing the British do not like is a fence sitter. Well, and the far left.

EDIT: I feel like using percentages in terms of voting changes actually obscures things quite a bit, because a % gain for the Tories is much bigger than a % gain for the Lib Dems.

In terms of the absolute votes cast I mean. That is the more interesting statistic for me - how many people changed their minds? I feel like the percentage should possibly be percentage of the electorate rather than percentage change relative to one political party, if that makes sense.

Your maths is wrong

The 4% Vs 1.2% is wrt the total , not % of their respective votes

2017

Conservatives : 13,636,684
Libdem : 2,371,910

2019

Conservatives : 13 966 565
Lib Dems : 3 696 423

Conservatives growth : < 300,000 votes
Lib dem growth : > 1,300,000 votes

Conservatives seats grew by about 50 seats
Libdems net loss of 1 seat

Those 1,3M votes went down the toilet.
FPTP system only works when there are 2 parties, or 1 party wins more than 50% per seat
 
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David Lammy is thinking of taking part in the Labour leadership campaign. Please let him win.

Hahahahahahaha.

That really would be the death knell of Labour.

 
Your maths is wrong

The 4% Vs 1.2% is wrt the total , not % of their respective votes

2017

Conservatives : 13,636,684
Libdem : 2,371,910

2019

Conservatives : 13 966 565
Lib Dems : 3 696 423

Conservatives growth : < 300,000 votes
Lib dem growth : > 1,300,000 votes

Conservatives seats grew by about 50 seats
Libdems net loss of 1 seat

Those 1,3M votes went down the toilet.

So the Conservative vote was much efficient than the Lib Dem vote. Basically Conservatives lost votes where they could afford to lose votes (south east) -- see big Lib Dem gains in Esher & Walton, Wokingham, South Cambridgeshire - but gained votes in areas where it really mattered.

A good image of the new type of Conservative supporter...not a single tweed jacket or top hat in sight! :p


I've also got an idea about a new Scottish referendum: grant it but only after the transition period is complete and an FTA with the EU is in place. That will focus minds.
 
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79345798-753562021722162-3420789001399828480-n.jpg
 
So the Conservative vote was much efficient than the Lib Dem vote. Basically Conservatives lost votes where they could afford to lose votes (south east) -- see big Lib Dem gains in Esher & Walton, Wokingham, South Cambridgeshire - but gained votes in areas where it really mattered.
Efficient is not the right word for it. You are talking about peoples choices, not just some numbers.

The point is the current system favours a 2 party system. And so limits choice.

Not only that, but a huge amount of voters are essentially disenfranchised. Are you happy that in most seats in the UK, the majority of the votes have no value at all.

You're the stats guy, how many seats did 1 party win more than 50% ?
 
Is a simple majority all BJ needs to push through a deal? I got the impression that he could not mobilise enough support within his own party to push no deal. Meaning he'll still have to win over the Tories with a deal they find palatable to be able to Brexit despite this win.
 
Is a simple majority all BJ needs to push through a deal? I got the impression that he could not mobilise enough support within his own party to push no deal. Meaning he'll still have to win over the Tories with a deal they find palatable to be able to Brexit despite this win.
A lot of the remainers left or got kicked out.

A small majority would have required him to pander to the largest faction

A large majority allows him more flexibility either way, as there will be some opposition supporters with him no matter which option he chooses.

So in essence, it allows him to ignore some of the extremists in his own party. It's actually a good thing
 
What Chris said carries some weight, though.

It's not about how many people vote, it's about how many people voted per constituency. If one town has 10000 residents with a Labour majority, they get 1 seat. The town next door could have 2000 residents with a Tory majority - but they also get 1 seat. So London being Red means nothing, really. Most major cities were. And it's where Labour got most of their seats from. It's the little constituencies out in the sticks that no-one really cares about that actually make the difference. And the fact that after this election the Tories have 70 (SEVENTY!) new MP's tells you exactly just how significant those areas are. And, if we're looking at numbers, I think London's Red population vastly out numbers the total of all those new constituencies.

The Tories nailed it. They didn't only keep at it in their usual strongholds - they went into to the small population mining towns, etc. Go back to my example of the towns: why struggle to convince 10000 people, when you get the same result with 2000?

Well played, Boris. Well played.

If anything, it's probably the most valid point all the whiners today have had, and have to say I see their point: 2000 people can have the same impact as 10000 people. There's just something wrong with that set up.

BUT, we wouldn't have seen anyone from Labour complaining about it if Corbyn went to meet with the queen today instead of Boris.
 
A visual representation of what changed. The majority of those areas voted Labour in 2017.
 

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Efficient is not the right word for it. You are talking about peoples choices, not just some numbers.

The point is the current system favours a 2 party system. And so limits choice.

Not only that, but a huge amount of voters are essentially disenfranchised. Are you happy that in most seats in the UK, the majority of the votes have no value at all.

You're the stats guy, how many seats did 1 party win more than 50% ?

279 for Tories
119 for Lab
6 for Lib Dem

By the way @Dave, Jacob Rees-Mogg increased his majority by 4500 despite heavy investment by the Lib Dems to remove him. It's actually quite funny - the Lab and Lib Dem vote are almost exactly the same in his constituency - another example of tactical voting failure.
 
By the way @Dave, Jacob Rees-Mogg increased his majority by 4500 despite heavy investment by the Lib Dems to remove him. It's actually quite funny - the Lab and Lib Dem vote are almost exactly the same in his constituency - another example of tactical voting failure.

Tactical voting was never going to be a major influence as Corbyn refused to even discuss it meaning there was always going to be Labour + another against the Conservatives.

It would have been nice if the 18th century throwback had been unseated though...
 
What Chris said carries some weight, though.

It's not about how many people vote, it's about how many people voted per constituency. If one town has 10000 residents with a Labour majority, they get 1 seat. The town next door could have 2000 residents with a Tory majority - but they also get 1 seat. So London being Red means nothing, really. Most major cities were. And it's where Labour got most of their seats from. It's the little constituencies out in the sticks that no-one really cares about that actually make the difference. And the fact that after this election the Tories have 70 (SEVENTY!) new MP's tells you exactly just how significant those areas are. And, if we're looking at numbers, I think London's Red population vastly out numbers the total of all those new constituencies.

The Tories nailed it. They didn't only keep at it in their usual strongholds - they went into to the small population mining towns, etc. Go back to my example of the towns: why struggle to convince 10000 people, when you get the same result with 2000?

Well played, Boris. Well played.

If anything, it's probably the most valid point all the whiners today have had, and have to say I see their point: 2000 people can have the same impact as 10000 people. There's just something wrong with that set up.

BUT, we wouldn't have seen anyone from Labour complaining about it if Corbyn went to meet with the queen today instead of Boris.

1. One of the worst elections regarding what you are referring to was the 2005 win by Tony Blair against Micheal Howard. And there was plenty of bitching about that at the time

Blair won 35.2% of the vote, and 355 seats
Howard had 32.4% of the vote...just 2.8% less and only got 198 seats. That 2.8% of the vote was essentially worth 157 seats. That's huge!!

With some sort of PR, it will not only even out this issue, but resolve the bigger issue of entrenchment of a 2 party system for constituencies themselves. And Labour are the guiltiest party wrt resisting change to this problem. Why? Because they have been the largest beneficiaries of this system

2. In a constituency. This isn't as much in issue when there are only 2 parties, as if 1 party ends up with 40% then the other one gets 60% ....so in essence the majority wins. Nobody can argue that much about that.

However when a 3rd party enters the fray, it starts to get a bit more schitty. If 1 party gets 60%, and the others get 40% between them, again majority rules...we can live with that. However if one party gets 35% , and the other 2 get 32% and 33% , you in essence are giving mandate to 35% of the vote, and ignoring the 65%....which is actually the majority. Votes in the bin, essentially.

3. Entrenchment of 2 party system. We all like our votes to count. And we like them to count for policies that closest match our beliefs. In a FPTP system, since it's inherently more difficult for new parties to enter the fray, we will not be choosing the party that closely matches our opinions, but will ignore that party because it doesn't stand a chance of getting close to the 50% to win, so in essence most of the people are voting for the party that can win which least disagrees with our views.

I agree with Chris on this , that some sort of hybrid system needs to be established, as we often vote for the person rather than the party.
 
279 for Tories
119 for Lab
6 for Lib Dem

By the way @Dave, Jacob Rees-Mogg increased his majority by 4500 despite heavy investment by the Lib Dems to remove him. It's actually quite funny - the Lab and Lib Dem vote are almost exactly the same in his constituency - another example of tactical voting failure.

So in almost 40% of the constituencies, the will of the majority was ignored. Sounds like a wonderful system. Try the same check in the 2005 election, that number ticks up significantly higher

Corbyn the great didn't think he needed tactical voting to win this. Kind of difficult to make this work when the biggest opposition party doesn't want to play.
 
1. One of the worst elections regarding what you are referring to was the 2005 win by Tony Blair against Micheal Howard. And there was plenty of bitching about that at the time

Blair won 35.2% of the vote, and 355 seats
Howard had 32.4% of the vote...just 2.8% less and only got 198 seats. That 2.8% of the vote was essentially worth 157 seats. That's huge!!

With some sort of PR, it will not only even out this issue, but resolve the bigger issue of entrenchment of a 2 party system for constituencies themselves. And Labour are the guiltiest party wrt resisting change to this problem. Why? Because they have been the largest beneficiaries of this system

2. In a constituency. This isn't as much in issue when there are only 2 parties, as if 1 party ends up with 40% then the other one gets 60% ....so in essence the majority wins. Nobody can argue that much about that.

However when a 3rd party enters the fray, it starts to get a bit more schitty. If 1 party gets 60%, and the others get 40% between them, again majority rules...we can live with that. However if one party gets 35% , and the other 2 get 32% and 33% , you in essence are giving mandate to 35% of the vote, and ignoring the 65%....which is actually the majority. Votes in the bin, essentially.

3. Entrenchment of 2 party system. We all like our votes to count. And we like them to count for policies that closest match our beliefs. In a FPTP system, since it's inherently more difficult for new parties to enter the fray, we will not be choosing the party that closely matches our opinions, but will ignore that party because it doesn't stand a chance of getting close to the 50% to win, so in essence most of the people are voting for the party that can win which least disagrees with our views.

I agree with Chris on this , that some sort of hybrid system needs to be established, as we often vote for the person rather than the party.
I voted Conservative in a constituency that was over 50% LibDem, knowing fully that my single vote would count for absolutely zero, zilch, nada in the greater scheme of things as did thousands of other votes. But the party I backed still won resoundingly. Had it gone to a man to man vote, the Tories would still have one, mind you.

But yes, I can sympathise with people who think it's a broken system.
 
Your maths is wrong

The 4% Vs 1.2% is wrt the total , not % of their respective votes

2017

Conservatives : 13,636,684
Libdem : 2,371,910

2019

Conservatives : 13 966 565
Lib Dems : 3 696 423

Conservatives growth : < 300,000 votes
Lib dem growth : > 1,300,000 votes

Conservatives seats grew by about 50 seats
Libdems net loss of 1 seat

Those 1,3M votes went down the toilet.
FPTP system only works when there are 2 parties, or 1 party wins more than 50% per seat

Fair enough, I didn't know that. Thanks, that's interesting.

Its not fair - but its unfair to everyone. I think it could have worked just as well in Labour's favour if it were not for Corbyn.

Its not like the system is skewed in favour of the Tories - Labour just sucked in this election.
 
Fair enough, I didn't know that. Thanks, that's interesting.

Its not fair - but its unfair to everyone. I think it could have worked just as well in Labour's favour if it were not for Corbyn.

Its not like the system is skewed in favour of the Tories - Labour just sucked in this election.
Indeed, it's how they've maintained the "Red Wall" up north.
 
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