The Brexit Thread

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Dave123 said:
It's a rubber stamp on any legislation. Technically assent can be withheld for any bill, but she knows that wouldn't end well for the monarchy ;)
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After brexit they can always send them (royals) back to germany where they came from :D
 
February

20-21 Article 50 Bill Second Reading, House of Lords. The government doesn’t have a majority in the Lords. Labour peers promise not to derail the Bill, but rogue Lords could cause trouble. The majority of Lib Dem peers want a second referendum and single market access which the government has set its face against.

27-28 Article 50 Bill Committee Stage, House of Lords. If the Lords do make major amendments to the Bill they will be discussed in detail over two days.

March

7 – Article 50 Bill Third Reading, House of Lords. A Bill amended by pro-EU peers seeking to frustrate Brexit would be returned to the Commons for “ping-pong” – but government sources have threatened peers that the Lords could be abolished if they take this course. Otherwise, a non-amended Bill will become law.

8 Phillip Hammond delivers the Budget, a key opportunity to build on May’s 12 principles and present in more detail the economic vision for Brexit Britain.

9-10 European Council meeting in Brussels. An obvious opportunity for May to formally tell EU leaders that Britain is leaving.

13, 14, 15 Days on which the Commons will undo any Lords’ amendments.

25 – EU Summit to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Article 50. Awkward.

31 – May’s deadline for enacting Article 50, triggering a two year negotiation window for a Brexit deal to be in place before the March 2019 European elections.
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Exact timeline.
 
ponder said:
After brexit they can always send them (royals) back to germany where they came from :D
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I know you're joking, but it raises a serious point ...

... Brexit gives the Brits a chance to celebrate their monarchy and rejoice in its tribal Britishness (hate that word). It's preferable to that alien Continental system now populated by dirigiste Eurocrats.

MBGA!
 
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...conomists-john-van-reenen-trade-a7570016.html

The Independent said:
Brexit four times worse for UK economy than previously believed, say MIT economists

New research claims leaving the EU will have bigger impact on UK productivity than had been thought

Britain’s departure from the European Union could cause output losses of as much as 9.5 per cent, according to new research.

Calculations using models that incorporate productivity measures show a negative impact on gross domestic product per capita of almost four times that of previous estimates, according to John Van Reenen, a professor of applied economics at the MIT Sloan School of Management who supported the campaign for the UK to remain in the EU.

That’s because increased costs of doing business with the rest of Europe -- which accounts for about half of all UK trade -- will mean lower levels of commerce and foreign investment, and thus lower average incomes in Britain, he said.
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But what do those economic professors know, it's not like they spend their lives researching economies... oh wait.
 
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The_Assimilator said:
But what do those economic professors know, it's not like they spend their lives researching economies... oh wait.
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Yeah academics are always the most skilled people around at dealing with practical real world issues ... :erm:

As the saying goes: "those who can, do, those who can't, teach"
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Yeah academics are always the most skilled people around at dealing with practical real world issues ... :erm:

As the saying goes: "those who can, do, those who can't, teach"
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The problem is that all these predictions can't possibly account for probably one of the biggest influences of what happens in an economy, and that is consumer sentiment (for want of a better word) - especially in the short term
You can build all the mathematical models you like, but the way people feel and react is going to screw with all that nice, neat orderliness faster than anyone can even say show-me-the-money

Mate of mine's toppie is an economics professor and we were having a discussion a little while ago at dinner about the accuracy of macro-economic predictions. He mentioned something about recessions that have been predicted by economists over the last few years.
Can't remember exact numbers but it was something like out of a 100 recessions in recent history, economists were only able to pick 10 or less (there was a study and paper produced so I'm sure if anyone has the time , the actual numbers can be found). And half of those were through sheer luck

In the case of Brexit , I reckon the sentiment is definitely on the side of the leavers which could indicate that this will be good for the UK. Go MBGA !

... but ...

... it depends ;)
 
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Interesting turn of events re: EU citizens not being given permanent residence once we leave. I'm guessing the same will go for UK residents who live on the continent. Probably one of the most unfortunate parts of the whole thing. But I believe they'll handle everyone who is already here differently to those wanting to come over once the break is complete. Doubt they'll start mass deporting people.
 
The Voice said:
Interesting turn of events re: EU citizens not being given permanent residence once we leave. I'm guessing the same will go for UK residents who live on the continent. Probably one of the most unfortunate parts of the whole thing. But I believe they'll handle everyone who is already here differently to those wanting to come over once the break is complete. Doubt they'll start mass deporting people.
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This is the only card they have to play. It will be used as a bargaining tool later on, as distasteful as that is.
 
Questionable immigration claims in the Brexit white paper

Immigration to the UK was a key issue in the Brexit debate and has also received a great deal of attention since the referendum. According to the recent white paper from the UK Government on Brexit principles, control of immigration will be a key priority.

Point 5.3 of the white paper states that “It is simply not possible to control immigration overall when there is unlimited free movement of people to the UK from the EU”, suggesting that EU mobility rules were responsible for the surge in immigration and the UK did not have a control.

I find this claim potentially misleading, for two reasons:

- By respecting all EU rules, net immigration of non-British citizens to the UK could have been cut by a stunning 82% in 2004-11 and also rather significantly since then. It was a UK decision not to control immigration.

- EU rules allow unlimited free movement of people only for a duration up to three months. For longer periods, only workers, the very rich and students can stay in another EU country.

Let me elaborate on these two points and then draw lessons for future UK immigration policies.

UK decisions have led to the surge in immigration since the mid-1990s, not the EU’s labour mobility principle
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UK labour shortages reported as EU worker numbers fall

UK employers are increasingly struggling to fill jobs in shops, factories and hospitals according to a new report that suggests the shortfall may be down to fewer EU migrants seeking work in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Company bosses are reporting labour and skills shortages throughout the food supply chain as well as in sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare and hospitality, according to the latest Labour Market Outlook from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and The Adecco Group, which polls more than 1,000 employers.

One in four also had evidence that the EU nationals they employed were considering either leaving their organisation or the UK in 2017.
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Pitbull said:
Great for the Unemployed in the UK.
Simple solution, cut benefits and force them to work. Win/Win.

I fail to see the problem here...
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I'm sure the average Brit won't be unhappy when they have to pay more for goods and services because all the cheap labour went back to the continent.
 
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