The Brexit Thread

[f2wohf]

Pure melodrama


Speculation


Speculation


Speculation


You forgot the idiot who made that idle US threat during the brexit fear mongering campaign is no longer in office? :crylaugh:

The EU is a failure, way past its due date, whatever leverage it thinks it has will disappear once the next country bolts, let's see if the Dutch do the world a favour this week ...

Speculation... I'm french and work in an area very correlated to project finance. The CIB guys of the french banks (now you have french government pressure in addition) have already planned to move back to Paris since the Brexit vote.

Each one of the bank I mentioned (except SoGe) is larger than Barclays.

But I guess the chairman of BNP is the kind of guy speculating in medias...

“I don’t see London remaining as it is; there will be change and it will be significant,” Jean-Adrien Lemierre said in a speech at the Paris Europlace financial forum in Tokyo on Monday. “Banks are already making quiet moves in preparation.”

HSBC CEO stated in January that at least 20% of the staff will be moved to Paris.

Now that their staff (who is mostly non British) is not guaranteed to be able to stay, they are pushed to leave.

You are just bordering delusion if you think that EU banks will keep London as their European center.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

You are just bordering delusion if you think that EU banks will keep London as their European center.

As are you if you think the UK will let them have easy access to London business in future if they actually follow through ...

Did any of those banks state they no longer intend to do business with UK people and UK companies? No? Then guess who makes the rules for them after brexit ...

 

[f2wohf]

On your last sentence, regarding that Obama idiot.

Remember that the new idiot will be harsher to U.K. than Obama would ever have been...

From a pro Brexit newspaper:

https://www.google.co.za/amp/www.ci...e-trade-deal-post-brexit-but-donald-trump/amp

 

[f2wohf]

As are you if you think the UK will let them have easy access to London business in future if they actually follow through ...

Did any of those banks state they no longer intend to do business with UK people and UK companies? No? Then guess who makes the rules for them after brexit ...

Because U.K. banking and transactions is relevant in a post EU world ? Nobody trades or finances in GBP except for intra British transactions.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp665.pdf?30e45678097abf291b2258ace5c1a6db

Because Euro transactions will be done from U.K. in a non EU UK ?

Their British and pound related activities are minor.

They just moved to the City because of tax incentives in the 80s, Paris and Frankfurt are now proposing the same incentives from Brexit.

You just don't have a clue of how banks and banking work, it's at 95% intellectual assets which are highly moveable.

So what you are essentially saying is that U.K. Will force EU banks to stay with as much activities in UK, otherwise what ? They scrap their banking licenses ? Let me laugh...

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

You just don't have a clue of how banks and banking work, it's at 95% intellectual assets highly moveable.

No it is 99% regulation and not as movable as you seem to think, I'll just file my I-told-you-so-card for later use

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Keep telling yourself that there hasnt been and there isnt actual discussions surrounding brexit. With that logic and generalisation i can see how you might think every single person on the left is against Brexit and everyone on the right is for it.

This is all a bit higher grade for Pitbull.

Case in point:

Theresa May accused of giving in to Brexit 'zealots' by Tory MPs and peers: Devastating analysis accuses the Prime Minister of appearing to be 'asking for the wrong things, in the wrong way and on the wrong timescale'

 

[f2wohf]

No it is 99% regulation and not as movable as you seem to think, I'll just file my I-told-you-so-card for later use

CIB and trading (the highly profitable activities) are 99% regulations! Let me laugh again.

Retail banking is a lot of regulations, financing, advising and trading can be done from virtually anywhere.

Nobody cares about retail banking (it's already British employees).

That's why a lot of the CIB done in SA is invoiced in Mauritius I guess ?

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

financing, advising and trading can be done from virtually anywhere

Keep beating your head against that wall, the country you plan to do business with can erect any number of barriers to entry, then magically you're screwed. Which is why these banks making their idle threats aren't all headquartered in the Caymans, they must have a local presence in certain markets to do business, because: regulation.

Do you believe any of the banks making their idle threats are prepared to be cut off from UK business? If not, their threats remain idle.

 

[f2wohf]

Keep beating your head against that wall, the country you plan to do business with can erect any number of barriers to entry, then magically you're screwed. Which is why these banks making their idle threats aren't all headquartered in the Caymans, they must have a local presence in certain markets to do business, because: regulation.

Do you believe any of the banks making their idle threats are prepared to be cut off from UK business? If not, their threats remain idle.

How would they be cut off U.K. business ? UK banking activities excluding retail are smaller than French or German ones, the City exists because of tax incentives (keep in your mind how wrong you are when you speak of regulations, all EU banks including the City right now are subject to EU regulation...).

I never said they will move to Caymans but to Paris and Frankfurt.

Make a barrier, the EU will make a bigger one...

Americans banks are already joining the party (GS, JP Morgan have already publicly declared that they are shifting a significant portion of their activities to EU based offices).

You think France and Germany need the U.K., there lies your mistake.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

You think France and Germany need the U.K., there lies your mistake.

Indeed the mistake lies there, however you are the one making it in reverse

8th biggest car market in the world, 3rd largest stock exchange in the world, 5th highest GDP in the world. The EU simply cannot afford to lose that market and seeing as that market will no longer be forced by EU regulation to play nice with them, they will have to play nice with it instead.

 

[f2wohf]

Indeed the mistake lies there, however you are the one making it in reverse

8th biggest car market in the world, 3rd largest stock exchange in the world, 5th highest GDP in the world. The EU simply cannot afford to lose that market and seeing as that market will no longer be forced by EU regulation to play nice with them, they will have to play nice with it instead.

Cars: I guess Vauxhall, Land Rover, Jaguar will take over. Shame they're not British anymore. Aston Martin maybe ?

Stock exchange: Trading can be done at distance. Currency, oil, derivatives are not part of the stock exchange and are bigger than stocks.

It's not a matter of losing the market. You pulled out that card, EU companies will downsize massively in UK but still operate in UK, UK can create new competitors but there is no way to block EU companies from doing so.

Nobody will lose a market, UK needs EU products (fruits ? Goods coming from European ports as U.K. is not self sufficient in tonnage capacity ?...).

And EU companies would take a hit by not having activities in the U.K., both will trade together, it's not a matter of if.

The matter is who will pay who and where is the activity and taxes are going to switch to ?

The headquarters for Europe and EMEA of international companies in London will shrink and will be created a EU headquarter in the EU and maybe a UKMEA or just a U.K. headquarter in London. It's the logical way to do it and il will be at loss for UK. This leads to a brain, consumption, tax drain.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Indeed the mistake lies there, however you are the one making it in reverse

8th biggest car market in the world, 3rd largest stock exchange in the world, 5th highest GDP in the world. The EU simply cannot afford to lose that market and seeing as that market will no longer be forced by EU regulation to play nice with them, they will have to play nice with it instead.

Brexit reasoning in a nutshell, folks.

The $17.1 trillion market cannot afford to lose the $2.6 trillion market, but the $2.6 trillion market can afford to lose the $17.1 trillion market... Where the UK market's exports to the EU are 13% of its GDP (with 44% of those exports going to that single market), while the reverse is only 3% of its GDP...

Mind boggling.

 

[f2wohf]

Brexit reasoning in a nutshell, folks.

The $17.1 trillion market cannot afford to lose the $2.6 trillion market, but the $2.6 trillion market can afford to lose the $17.1 trillion market... Where the UK market's exports to the EU are 13% of its GDP (with 44% of those exports going to that single market), while the reverse is only 3% of its GDP...

Mind boggling.

French and German banks are shivering at the idea of transferring staff out of London. Literally terrorized by losing Tesco as a client !

 

[The Voice]

Cars: I guess Vauxhall, Land Rover, Jaguar will take over. Shame they're not British anymore. Aston Martin maybe ?

To interject, not with regards to manufacturing, but with regards to purchasing. If I stick my head out the window quick I'd say 70% of the cars in my street are German - the rest probably Japanese, French and English (in that order).

Britain is one of the biggest importers of cars (mainly German) in the world. If things get messy with the divorce, that look out the window in a few years time may reveal more Toyotas than VW's. And that will hurt the Germans (and the EU) a lot more than it'll hurt the Brits, guaranteed.

Also, all voting is finally done. The Queen will probably sign it and stamp it tomorrow morning at breakfast.

 

[Dave]

The House of Lords has passed the Brexit bill, paving the way for the government to trigger Article 50 so the UK can leave the EU.

Peers backed down over the issues of EU residency rights and a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal after their objections were overturned by MPs.

The bill is expected to receive Royal Assent and become law on Tuesday.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg said this would leave Theresa May free to push the button on withdrawal talks.

The prime minister could theoretically invoke Article 50, which formally starts the Brexit process, as early as Tuesday.

However, Downing Street sources have said this will not happen this week and the PM is expected to wait until the end of the month to officially notify the EU of the UK's intention to leave, thus beginning what is expected to be a two-year process.

More at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39262081

 

[f2wohf]

To interject, not with regards to manufacturing, but with regards to purchasing. If I stick my head out the window quick I'd say 70% of the cars in my street are German - the rest probably Japanese, French and English (in that order).

Britain is one of the biggest importers of cars (mainly German) in the world. If things get messy with the divorce, that look out the window in a few years time may reveal more Toyotas than VW's. And that will hurt the Germans (and the EU) a lot more than it'll hurt the Brits, guaranteed.

Also, all voting is finally done. The Queen will probably sign it and stamp it tomorrow morning at breakfast.

I was meaning car purchase as well (just pointing out that even British brands aren't British).

But then Brits won't have vegetables and fruits from Spain, nor wine, nor pretty much everything they need.

As I explained, the goal is not cut ties (and it is physically and economically impossible for both sides).

The U.K. isn't even independent in terms of ports capacity to import what it needs.

The goal is deal or no deal. The deal needs to be harsh from the EU side, no deal is back to WTO rules (which are bad as well). Both ways will hurt the British. For more details: http://www.eversheds-sutherland.com...n/brexit-trade-law-implications-vote-leave-eu

The trade conditions from other countries won't be better as trade agreements take far more than 2 years to negotiate. Not respecting the WTO conditions without a treaty would be exposing UK to major lawsuits and sanctions.

What next from the Brexiters, a Wtoxit ?

 

[ChocolateBadger]

All this assuming the EU are going to survive its own problems with a growing right leaning population and some scary elections coming up. There may not be an EU as we know it by the end of those 2 year talks.

 

[f2wohf]

All this assuming the EU are going to survive its own problems with a growing right leaning population and some scary elections coming up. There may not be an EU as we know it by the end of those 2 year talks.

Netherlands won't be out, the right will win 50 seats.

France neither, Le Pen loses ground and loses whatever competitor she faces at the second round. She's actually indicted for fraud and money laundering...

PS: a poll showed last week 77% of French are in favor of keeping the Euro.

PS2: even if a country was about to leave, it would take 2 years for them to leave from article 50, they would end up leaving after U.K. anyway...

Right parties have built the EEC and then the EU unlike what you seem to think, extreme right is against it.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Cars: I guess Vauxhall, Land Rover, Jaguar will take over. Shame they're not British anymore. Aston Martin maybe ?

omg /facepalm

BMW, VW, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Mercedez, Audi ... who do you think buys those cars from ze-Germans and the French? You reckon if they suddenly can't sell a single car to the UK they'll be happy? LMAO

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Brexit reasoning in a nutshell, folks.

The $17.1 trillion market cannot afford to lose the $2.6 trillion market, but the $2.6 trillion market can afford to lose the $17.1 trillion market... Where the UK market's exports to the EU are 13% of its GDP (with 44% of those exports going to that single market), while the reverse is only 3% of its GDP...

Mind boggling.

Mind boggling how you think yes. The EU market is already taking strain, a few trillion hit to them is catastrophic, the UK on the other hand is now free to sell to whoever the hell they want, especially outside the EU. This only favours one party, and it is not the EU. But cling to your brainwashed notions that got stuck somewhere during the bremoan fear mongering campaign all you like.

Roll on 2020 and we can assess just how wrong you were.