The Brexit Thread

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f2wohf said:
I'd rather die than vote Le Pen, every single aspect of her person, her programme and her speeches is the antithesis of my beliefs.
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Naturally that is your choice which must be respected. As long as people understand that voting Macron is a guarantee that the EU will not change in the least, there will never be reform.

I hasten to add voting Le Pen is also going to maintain the status quo, just like Trump's victory did, if there's even a 0.01% chance that she actually follows through on something like a frexit referendum though, there's at least a microscopic smidgen of hope, as opposed to none at all.
 
So today will be the first indication of where this is going with the Local elections...

Hold on to your tissues lefties :D :D
 
At his age, looks like a sound idea ! I would have done it at least 10 years earlier !!!
 
So now we see why this 'Brexit Bill' is getting bigger and bigger. Note this is not from the drunkard Juncker but from the EU's chief negotiator...

Brussels admits it faces an 'explosive' crisis if UK refuses Brexit bill: Chief negotiator makes shock admission that the bloc could crumble if Britain resists payment

Brussels admitted yesterday that it faces an 'explosive' political crisis if the UK refuses to pay a multi-billion pound Brexit bill.

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, warned the fragile bloc could crumble if Britain resists demands for the settlement which, say analysts, has ballooned to around 100billion euros (£85billion).

His shock admission came as Brussels added more hard-line conditions to its aggressive negotiating stance.

The bloc called for EU citizens who arrive in the UK just a day before Brexit to be granted full residency rights which can later extend to their families.

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However, Mr Barnier hinted at deeper concerns – that the loss of one of the EU's biggest financial contributors could be hugely damaging to the bloc.

Describing the payment as 'incontestable', he said: 'Imagine what would happen if this were not to take place.

'We have to be rigorous in our approach to clearing these accounts. Otherwise the situation might be explosive if we have to stop programmes. Can you imagine the political problems which might arise?'

His intervention reflects concerns that the withdrawal of Britain's £8billion net annual contribution to the EU could scupper sensitive projects or leave other countries to pay.

Mr Barnier suggested stalemate could inflame the refugee crisis, pointing out that the UK contributes to the deal with Turkey which is restricting huge flows of migrants into Europe.

The EU's latest demands were rejected by Brexit Secretary David Davis. He also dismissed threats from Brussels to use the issue to block a trade deal, insisting Britain will not pay a penny if talks collapse.

Pointing out that the figures emanating from Brussels continue to grow without explanation, Mr Davis said: 'We will not be paying 100billion euros.'

Asked what would happen if the UK leaves without a deal, the Brexit Secretary said: 'In the walk-away circumstance, there is nothing to be paid.'
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Chris_the_Brit said:
So now we see why this 'Brexit Bill' is getting bigger and bigger. Note this is not from the drunkard Juncker but from the EU's chief negotiator...

Brussels admits it faces an 'explosive' crisis if UK refuses Brexit bill: Chief negotiator makes shock admission that the bloc could crumble if Britain resists payment
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Always wondered, what recourse does the EU have if the UK just straight out refuses to pay a penny?

I think the payment is more of a mutual agreement than a fine or am I wrong?
 
Pitbull said:
Always wondered, what recourse does the EU have if the UK just straight out refuses to pay a penny?

I think the payment is more of a mutual agreement than a fine or am I wrong?
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No recourse. Just retaliation measures, such as mainly the trade deal.
 
Pitbull said:
Always wondered, what recourse does the EU have if the UK just straight out refuses to pay a penny?

I think the payment is more of a mutual agreement than a fine or am I wrong?
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Basically yes, there is nothing about financial payments in the article 50 text.

The argument is that the UK has an obligation as it has already agreed to pay contributions to EU schemes until 2020 or so.
 
f2wohf said:
No recourse. Just retaliation measures, such as mainly the trade deal.
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But the EU is farked without the payment so what negotiation power do they really have? Can Spain afford to let the UK leave without paying a Penny? Can Greece?

I think the EU is over estimating their importance here. The UK will lose by not being able to trade with the EU open and fairly, but they have other places they can trade with. Can the EU afford to lose the UK as a trading partner though? This all sound to me like the EU is playing the Bluff game here, they should be careful or they will be caught with a 7/2 off suit :p :D
 
Pitbull said:
But the EU is farked without the payment so what negotiation power do they really have? Can Spain afford to let the UK leave without paying a Penny? Can Greece?

I think the EU is over estimating their importance here. The UK will lose by not being able to trade with the EU open and fairly, but they have other places they can trade with. Can the EU afford to lose the UK as a trading partner though? This all sound to me like the EU is playing the Bluff game here, they should be careful or they will be caught with a 7/2 off suit :p :D
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The amount they are talking about is a drop in the ocean compared to the size of the EU economy - you're talking about 10bn a year in a 15+tn economy. It really isn't going to break the EU if the UK doesn't pay.

And it can take a decade to work out a trade deal. What's going to happen in the meantime? No deal = UK's financial industry completely stuffed - and really that's the one that's paying the most tax by far.

At the eleventh hour the UK will begrudgingly agree to pay the exit bill and allow some form of free movement in exchange for single market access.
 
JayM said:
The amount they are talking about is a drop in the ocean compared to the size of the EU economy - you're talking about 10bn a year in a 15+tn economy. It really isn't going to break the EU if the UK doesn't pay.

And it can take a decade to work out a trade deal. What's going to happen in the meantime? No deal = UK's financial industry completely stuffed - and really that's the one that's paying the most tax by far.

At the eleventh hour the UK will begrudgingly agree to pay the exit bill and allow some form of free movement in exchange for single market access.
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US has already said they are open to trade with the UK. South Africa too.

I know it's a drop in the water, do you think Spain or Greece can afford to even lose a drop?
 
Pitbull said:
US has already said they are open to trade with the UK. South Africa too.

I know it's a drop in the water, do you think Spain or Greece can afford to even lose a drop?
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US just said EU deal gets priority over UK. Spain is doing OK now. Greece's bailout bill has already been paid and they're not paying it back, UK or not. The extra couple of hundred million out of their 300bn debt is meaningless.
 
JayM said:
US just said EU deal gets priority over UK. Spain is doing OK now. Greece's bailout bill has already been paid and they're not paying it back, UK or not. The extra couple of hundred million out of their 300bn debt is meaningless.
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Greece is already asking for more money and the EU guys do somehow expect them to pay it back, but you are correct they're not going to.
 
f2wohf said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...out-deal-austerity-strike-pensions-tax-breaks

Deal already reached without the U.K. obviously.
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Great, these are the type of leeches the UK can do without tbh. Interesting times ahead no disputing that. But the UK should start striking trade deals now and not wait for this whole exit to come to a close. The more trade deals they can conclude the harder negotiation will become for the EU. That is the ONLY card they have to play currently.
 
Pitbull said:
Great, these are the type of leeches the UK can do without tbh. Interesting times ahead no disputing that. But the UK should start striking trade deals now and not wait for this whole exit to come to a close. The more trade deals they can conclude the harder negotiation will become for the EU. That is the ONLY card they have to play currently.
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They are not allowed to negotiate deals until they've left the EU. Which is why there will need to be some interim deal.
 
Pitbull said:
Any recourse for negotiating prior to the exit?
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No. And no country maybe except North Korea would dare negotiate with U.K. until they are out, it would be in violation of their treaties with the EU.
 
f2wohf said:
No. And no country maybe except North Korea would dare negotiate with U.K. until they are out, it would be in violation of their treaties with the EU.
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The UK is actually quite a stickler for abiding by the rules. I think they are literally #1 in obeying and implementing EU directives as insane as that sounds. Their reputation for upholding the law is not worth trying to sneak in a quick side deal.
 
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