The Brexit Thread

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HavocXphere said:
Well I hope you're right. I fear this is going to take a decade to sort out though...
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The world is now a very different place to what it was when Norway was negotiating with the EU. The UK isn't Norway. As I said, European govts don't enjoy overwhelming majorities.
 
zippy said:
The world is now a very different place to what it was when Norway was negotiating with the EU. The UK isn't Norway. As I said, European govts don't enjoy overwhelming majorities.
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Different indeed. Don't think you're helping your argument here though. I rate Norway's chances better.

Clean slate. No ticking time-bomb. Didn't antagonise EU members preemptively.

And most importantly their stance was "we want half in". Meanwhile UK's was "we want in, but not really, so sorta in via compromise, and no we've had this referendum and decided we want out, but then we realised we don't actually want fully out so now we want all the way out but then halfway in again depending on how the local political shtstorm works out".

The only place where that much in and out is a plus is in the bedroom.
 
The_Assimilator said:
Best description of this farce I've seen so far! XD

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...opulist-surge-populist-right-funeral-director
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In a sense this was always my concern.

There never was a plan to carry this out. Even the leave campaign never set out any specific plan of how Brexit would be carried out. This is why I opposed this from the start.

As the cliff draws near, it is seemingly becoming even more unlikely anything substantial will be in place.
 
Theresa May seeks interim EU deal to avoid Brexit trade chaos

Ministers hope to strike a temporary deal with the European Union to retain the key benefits of the customs union for an interim period after Brexit, to avoid cross-border commerce grinding to a halt.

The government will use a position paper published on Tuesday to reveal that, for a brief period, it will seek a deal allowing the transit of goods across borders to continue as now – perhaps by striking a “temporary customs union”.

Ministers hope this will avoid economic disruption by giving businesses and officials time to gear up for a new customs regime; while sidestepping the constraint that full members of the customs union are not allowed to strike independent trade deals with non-EU countries.

The government will say it wants to create “the freest and most frictionless possible trade in goods between the UK and the EU”.

The paper will also reject the idea of a lengthy transition period, during which the status quo is maintained while negotiations drag on: an option favoured by pro-EU Tories, and business groups including the CBI.

No specific time limit for the interim deal has been spelled out by the government, but ministers involved in the negotiations believe anything longer than two years would be unlikely to secure the backing of Britain’s EU partners. In particular, they fear a more drawn out period would be likely to require the approval of individual member states’ national parliaments – a time-consuming process.
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OrbitalDawn said:
Theresa May seeks interim EU deal to avoid Brexit trade chaos
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And then, the other side of the coin

EU set to block UK's temporary customs union plea to stop Brexit border chaos, warns former commissioner

The EU is likely to block Britain’s plea for a temporary customs union to prevent Brexit border chaos if it also demands the right to seek other trade deals, a former Commissioner has warned.

Karel De Gucht described the plans being put forward today by the Government as “very problematic” and at odds with Brussels’ ideas for a transitional period.

The Belgian, who was European Commissioner for Trade between 2010 and 2014, suggested the EU would accept the status quo on customs for several years only its terms.

They would be Britain abiding by decisions of the European Court of Justice, paying contributions – and not seeking to sign preferential trade deals with third countries.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...e-gucht-european-union-britain-a7893606.html?
 
:whistle:

The government's customs union plan is an absolute dog's breakfast

It's hard to know where to start with the customs union position paper. It is such a mess, such a full-spectrum catastrophe of ineptitude and wishful thinking, that it's honestly quite difficult to choose which bits of it to single out for criticism.

On Sunday, Phillip Hammond and Liam Fox wrote a joint piece for the Sunday Telegraph agreeing that the UK would not stay in the customs union during transition. There is no particular reason to do this, except for the religious zeal of hard Brexiters. Staying in would allow British business to enjoy certainty and consistency as we left the EU and reduce the amount of work the UK government has to do before Brexit day. But regardless, that is not happening, so now we are full steam ahead to leave, even in the transition period.

What would this transition period entail, if not customs union membership? Well, it seems to mostly involve customs union membership. There would be a "continued close association" for a "time limited period". This – there should really be a laughter track – "could involve a new and time-limited customs union between the UK and EU Customs Union, based on a shared external tariff and without customs processes and duties between the UK and the EU". In other words: a customs union. The British plan is to leave the customs union and then create a new customs union which does exactly the same thing as the one it just left.

It is quite mad. But there is of course one reason, and one reason only, that this Alice in Wonderland nonsense is being countenanced. This imaginary new customs union would allow Britain to negotiate trade deals. Disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox is upset that he is not legally allowed to do his new job as international trade secretary while we're in the customs union. So this is the solution. But even here the government does not appear to know what it is asking for. They admit the UK will not be able to implement any new trade deal, but are unclear about whether it would be able to sign them. Is it just going to talk to partners about them? Because if so, that is something it is already doing, as David Davis admitted this morning.
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Either they're comically inept and the UK is toast, or this is some sort of act to get the public on side for when they pull the plug on Brexit.
 
JayM said:
Either they're comically inept and the UK is toast, or this is some sort of act to get the public on side for when they pull the plug on Brexit.
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^this or option 3: this is some sort of act to force a hard brexit down the line, I suspect the 2nd one is the truth, trying to pull the plug on brexit
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
^this or option 3: this is some sort of act to force a hard brexit down the line, I suspect the 2nd one is the truth, trying to pull the plug on brexit
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If Brexit guaranteed a hard left socialist government in power (with possibly Corbyn as PM), would you still want it to go ahead? It really looks like that inevitability is playing out. :mad:
 
JayM said:
If Brexit guaranteed a hard left socialist government in power (with possibly Corbyn as PM), would you still want it to go ahead? It really looks like that inevitability is playing out. :mad:
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The thing is brexit and whatever pain comes with it, is absolutely necessary to get Britain on the right path (in my opinion). I certainly wouldn't wish a hard left government on anyone, but once the Brits are again accustomed to being masters of their own destiny, such a government would not last long at all.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
The thing is brexit and whatever pain comes with it, is absolutely necessary to get Britain on the right path (in my opinion). I certainly wouldn't wish a hard left government on anyone, but once the Brits are again accustomed to being masters of their own destiny, such a government would not last long at all.
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They'd last 5 years, which unfortunately is plenty of time to wreck a country, as we've seen here...
 
JayM said:
They'd last 5 years, which unfortunately is plenty of time to wreck a country, as we've seen here...
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Brexit going wrong (which is pretty likely) could destroy the Tories in the eyes of many voters for a lot longer than 5 years.
 
Dave said:
Brexit going wrong (which is pretty likely) could destroy the Tories in the eyes of many voters for a lot longer than 5 years.
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Well it depends how terribly things go for them as well. Perhaps that shakeup will give rise to a new centre party and really get the UK back on track. The current options are dismal, and democracy is broken.
 
JayM said:
Well it depends how terribly things go for them as well. Perhaps that shakeup will give rise to a new centre party and really get the UK back on track. The current options are dismal, and democracy is broken.
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That is true.

Corbyn or the current idiotic Conservatives, what a choice...
 
Dave said:
That is true.

Corbyn or the current idiotic Conservatives, what a choice...
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LibDems? Kind of seem to be the best of both, but haven't been able to garner the support needed to really unseat the two bigger ones. They've already knocked UKIP down the pecking order, but the progress is way too slow.
 
The Voice said:
LibDems? Kind of seem to be the best of both, but haven't been able to garner the support needed to really unseat the two bigger ones. They've already knocked UKIP down the pecking order, but the progress is way too slow.
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Just proves the 5 years isn't long enough theory, people still blame them for the coalition government and the student fees debacle.
 
The Voice said:
LibDems? Kind of seem to be the best of both, but haven't been able to garner the support needed to really unseat the two bigger ones. They've already knocked UKIP down the pecking order, but the progress is way too slow.
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The problem is that because of FPTP people think they are wasting their vote by backing a party which definitely can't win. So they need to fix that problem as well. This is the only reason Labour did relatively well in the recent GE.

Also, going into coalition with the conservatives didn't go down very well...
 
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