The Brexit Thread

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Pitbull said:
I'm seriously starting to wonder if these remainers actually know anything about global trade and trade agreements. UK can import anything from anywhere but it will be custom taxed, something EU purchasers and suppliers are exempt from.

Import Bolt from Germany at 1 Euro with no custom charges vs purchasing bolt from SA at 0.85 Euro + (25%) custom duty and probably VAT (20%) = 1.28 Euros

Same bolt, just slightly more expensive due to custom charges and VAT.

So you still receive your Bolt, it's just 28% more expensive even if you get it for cheaper.
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So your business now has to somehow absorb a 28% increase in the cost of a part and just happily carry on? That is of course assuming that the item is cheaper, and shipping doesn't push the cost of the item even further above what it would have cost sourced from the EU whilst in the EU
 
Pitbull said:
You can import what you want from where you want... Only difference is the customs duties and checks.

Wait you actually knew this... right?
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Yes exactly. So today I get my bolts with no tariffs added on and a guaranteed delivery date and cost.

After October????

How long will they be held for at the border?
 
Pitbull said:
You can import what you want from where you want... Only difference is the customs duties and checks.

Wait you actually knew this... right?
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There won't even be anything to check in the beginning, without a specified import duty.

You'll drive up to the border. Whoever checks(if there is even going to be a check) will see you are transporting bolts and nothing illegal and you will continue on.
 
rietrot said:
There won't even be anything to check in the beginning, without a specified import duty.

You'll drive up to the border. Whoever checks(if there is even going to be a check) will see you are transporting bolts and nothing illegal and you will continue on.
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Except currently, you drive through the "border"... after october there will be queues and documents etc and possible extra duties.
 
rietrot said:
There won't even be anything to check in the beginning, without a specified import duty.

You'll drive up to the border. Whoever checks(if there is even going to be a check) will see you are transporting bolts and nothing illegal and you will continue on.
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No.

An example of what is needed for transporting into Norway.

The UK have not got this infrastructure fully up and running yet.

https://transporteca.co.uk/export-to-norway/
 
Pitbull said:
I think you understood the part you just said incorrectly :eek:

Supply and demand affects price.

So if the demand exceeds the supply, price increases. If the Supply exceeds the demand the price falls. I think I know why you're in construction now...

Slower delivery times will create a scenario where demand exceeds supply. Thus companies are willing to pay more to get what they need. (Doesn't affect transport in the least) Freight companies will demand higher transport costs and clients will pay as they need their supplies. This in the end affects the end consumer, however, the rest of the business chain will be run as normal.

Raw material increase, transport increases, final product increases and the consumer bears the brunt of it.
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You assume demand remains constant.

People grow frustrated at increase in prices, difficulty to obtain the product and then forgo that item for a cheaper alternative.

Hence a transport company that relies on a specific level of demand to turn a profit, now has a lower demand to supply. To gear down it needs to reduce supply trucks and personnel.
 
ToxicBunny said:
So your business now has to somehow absorb a 28% increase in the cost of a part and just happily carry on? That is of course assuming that the item is cheaper, and shipping doesn't push the cost of the item even further above what it would have cost sourced from the EU whilst in the EU
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Like I said... Companies have had 2+ years to negotiate better rates with different suppliers based on the sizes of their orders. Sitting and crying for 2 years and then saying: "We won't be able to import things because there is no single market ... bleh... bleh... bleh..."

Cost will increase and be sold for higher prices to make up the difference, this will affect end consumers. Eventually it will be we give you X free of custom duties if you give us Y free of custom duties bleh bleh bleh.

There will be a growing phase, but people will still get what they need and what they want. It will be more expensive and the labour forces will need increases in wages and so forth. All very doable if done right.
 
Pitbull said:
Like I said... Companies have had 2+ years to negotiate better rates with different suppliers based on the sizes of their orders. Sitting and crying for 2 years and then saying: "We won't be able to import things because there is no single market ... bleh... bleh... bleh..."

Cost will increase and be sold for higher prices to make up the difference, this will affect end consumers. Eventually it will be we give you X free of custom duties if you give us Y free of custom duties bleh bleh bleh.

There will be a growing phase, but people will still get what they need and what they want. It will be more expensive and the labour forces will need increases in wages and so forth. All very doable if done right.
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Those discussions happen at a country level, and the UK is a smaller market than the EU therefore does not have the same sway in international trade negotiations... this is not rocket science, but it seems to escape you entirely.
 
ToxicBunny said:
I would tend to agree with you ultimately...

I see A being the more likely of the two scenarios, as the remaining EU countries will watch the chaos in the UK and any thought of leaving the EU will vanish from their political landscapes.

But of course, with option A, the UK will be worse off than if they just stayed as part of the EU in the first place... they will never get the same sweetheart deal they currently have.
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We could be seeing the end of the UK as a union. What might also happen is that were the UK to apply to rejoin the EU, as you say it would be difficult to get the same sweetheart deal. They might force us to give up the Pound.
 
Ancalagon said:
We could be seeing the end of the UK as a union. What might also happen is that were the UK to apply to rejoin the EU, as you say it would be difficult to get the same sweetheart deal. They might force us to give up the Pound.
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100% the EU would force the issue of the Euro onto the UK..

I'm not sure it would be the end of the UK as a nation... but that is a much more complex discussion really.
 
buka001 said:
No.

An example of what is needed for transporting into Norway.

The UK have not got this infrastructure fully up and running yet.

https://transporteca.co.uk/export-to-norway/
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There's no need for extra documents and red tape. They can look at your invoice if they need a price

You seriously can't think that goods wil be held up at the border because someone didn't complete a form which doesn't even exist or isn't a requirement.
 
Pitbull said:
Like I said... Companies have had 2+ years to negotiate better rates with different suppliers based on the sizes of their orders. Sitting and crying for 2 years and then saying: "We won't be able to import things because there is no single market ... bleh... bleh... bleh..."

Cost will increase and be sold for higher prices to make up the difference, this will affect end consumers. Eventually it will be we give you X free of custom duties if you give us Y free of custom duties bleh bleh bleh.

There will be a growing phase, but people will still get what they need and what they want. It will be more expensive and the labour forces will need increases in wages and so forth. All very doable if done right.
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How were companies supposed to negotiate, if no one knew what type of deal would be in place?

If everyone negotiated on worst case, what is that? Nobody has provided business a clear picture of what this will be?
 
ToxicBunny said:
100% the EU would force the issue of the Euro onto the UK..

I'm not sure it would be the end of the UK as a nation... but that is a much more complex discussion really.
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Well Northern Ireland has already said they would rather rejoin with the Republic Of Ireland than risk the Time of Troubles returning. Everyone is worried that a hard border would mean a return to that, so it is distinctly possible that the UK might lose Northern Ireland in a few weeks time.

Then, Scotland is asking about a second referendum. If they vote to Leave UK, then that might leave the UK consisting of England and Wales.
 
Ancalagon said:
Well Northern Ireland has already said they would rather rejoin with the Republic Of Ireland than risk the Time of Troubles returning. Everyone is worried that a hard border would mean a return to that, so it is distinctly possible that the UK might lose Northern Ireland in a few weeks time.

Then, Scotland is asking about a second referendum. If they vote to Leave UK, then that might leave the UK consisting of England and Wales.
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In terms of the hard border... I personally don't see any other solution except handing NI back to the Republic of Ireland really... any other solution seems like it will end in bloodshed.
 
ToxicBunny said:
In terms of the hard border... I personally don't see any other solution except handing NI back to the Republic of Ireland really... any other solution seems like it will end in bloodshed.
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The backstop is a solution and personally I can't understand why people are so against it. They don't like it but nobody has been able to come up with another credible solution. Everyone just starts using Star Trek technobabble to describe this magical solution that actually cannot work.

But failing the backstop, then yes they will probably rejoin.

The other thing to consider is that the backstop was only supposed to be in place while another permanent agreement was being debated. But I haven't even seen any good permanent solutions - how could they, on a permanent basis, avoid a border unless the two countries were in a customs union, which the Brexiteers don't want? You can't, it isn't possible.
 
ToxicBunny said:
In terms of the hard border... I personally don't see any other solution except handing NI back to the Republic of Ireland really... any other solution seems like it will end in bloodshed.
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Except the majority of the people in Northern Ireland want to stay British. There will be no “handing back”. Ever. It’s simply not an option and if it was, there would be massive bloodshed.
 
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