The Brexit Thread

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Brexit.. already cost the English their Rugby World cup.... (no one can decide whats going on...)
 
Dave said:
What a political genius you are!!!!

You're "very close" to betting that the Tories will win a seat they currently hold and have held since 1950?

I'm staggered by your political acumen!!!!
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Very funny. You know it's a different time...:cautious:

Political alliances are fraying, Tories going hard for the blue-collar aspirant working class vote etc.
 
Hamish McPanji said:
Do you actually read the trollop that you write? Psycho babble crap are what elections are all about. That's why different parties compete until they have enough to mount a challenge to the status quo.

Especially with FPTP, the viability of any party to win is largely decided based on their last election result....if Greens manage to get anywhere close to 30%, it starts to look like a suitable alternative to the incumbents which encourages voting, as alternative votes actually might count.

Edit: And who knows what presents the Brexit Party will bring with their participation. Or maybe they shouldn't participate anywhere, because it's FPTP so technically they have no history to stand on
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Hmm...well my metric results aka seats won. I'm not particularly bothered by Lib Dems standing down in the Isle of Wight (which by the way is a heavily Leave area) because I know it won't affect the composition of parliament. I just have different metrics to you. It's also interesting you mention BXP is that is the debate going on right now. I personally believe BXP should stand down in marginals in the south west and south east while competing in strong Labour leave areas in the Midlands and the North which historically has weak Tory results. The thing is the Cummings/BoJo strategy is to go after some of these voters as well who have never voted Tory...it's a tough ask. They are trying to redraw the political map. That's why I'm not so buoyant about a Tory majority anymore...heard too many election experts in the last two days, including tonight from the Conservative-leaning Spectator saying that it will be a tiny Tory majority of 5 - 10 or a hung parliament.

I placed my bet last week. I don't do dumb bets, I need a preponderance of evidence before I place one on politics since people can vote weirdly or not as expected.

736567
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Hmm...well my metric results aka seats won. I'm not particularly bothered by Lib Dems standing down in the Isle of Wight (which by the way is a heavily Leave area) because I know it won't affect the composition of parliament. I just have different metrics to you. It's also interesting you mention BXP is that is the debate going on right now. I personally believe BXP should stand down in marginals in the south west and south east while competing in strong Labour leave areas in the Midlands and the North which historically has weak Tory results. The thing is the Cummings/BoJo strategy is to go after some of these voters as well who have never voted Tory...it's a tough ask. They are trying to redraw the political map. That's why I'm not so buoyant about a Tory majority anymore...heard too many election experts in the last two days, including tonight from the Conservative-leaning Spectator saying that it will be a tiny Tory majority of 5 - 10 or a hung parliament.

I placed my bet last week. I don't do dumb bets, I need a preponderance of evidence before I place one on politics since people can vote weirdly or not as expected.

View attachment 736567
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How much did you bet? You’ve got us all convinced that your political acumen is making you a fortune, so go on, show us. Was it a pound? A fiver even?
 
Spizz said:
How much did you bet? You’ve got us all convinced that your political acumen is making you a fortune, so go on, show us. Was it a pound? A fiver even?
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I was just a bit confused as apparently those were the same odds as yesterday morning :

www.google.co.za

Who will be the next Speaker after John Bercow stands down?

JOHN Bercow has officially stepped down as House of Commons Speaker after years of calling for order. His successor will be decided today (November 4) – in the first such election in more tha…
www.google.co.za www.google.co.za

And similar odds as from 22nd October (2 weeks before): https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/www....n-to-replace-john-bercow-on-a4267856.html?amp

That's like 65+% certainty. The next candidate was at 10%
 
ToxicBunny said:
My guess is that he didn't and he's talking shyte (like most of his posts)
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I'm curious as I work in the industry. A British passport would be accepted for identity, but you'd need a rates or utility bill for proof of UK residence. Just wondering how he got round that.
 
theratman said:
I'm curious as I work in the industry. A British passport would be accepted for identity, but you'd need a rates or utility bill for proof of UK residence. Just wondering how he got round that.
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Peripherally as well, so I know just how strict the regulations and regulator are in terms of compliance... and how big the fines are so the players avoid being in breach at all costs.
 
Probably has a betfair account via a family member ..... last time I did that was 2 years ago though, dunno if it's more stringent these days?
 
Mephisto_Helix said:
Probably has a betfair account via a family member ..... last time I did that was 2 years ago though, dunno if it's more stringent these days?
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It's Ladbrokes according to the pic

I'm any case, there is always a way around these kind of things
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
No personal experience but one get a good grounding from reports and the like. And my brother sent this to me a few weeks ago.
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Bru you f'cked in your head. I've had to wait much longer than that at more than one Mediclinic here in Cape Town, even though it is private.

You live in a fantasy land.
 
theratman said:
@Chris_the_Brit How'd you manage to open an online UK betting account without KYC docs? They're heavily regulated in the UK, so I'm genuinely interested.
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I'm in the UK at the moment and opened up a bank account first, which was used as my proof of address (again, that was fortunate as the bank in question simply accepted it. One of these start-up banks that don't ask too many questions compared to the traditional banks). Strangely, they didn't ask too many questions (at the time my Starling bank account had £0 in it, lol). I actually thought I was going to be refused. If they had been more probing, I probably would have been out of luck.

If you work in the industry in SA, please tell whoever you work for to put up more political betting markets! :p SA bookies are fairly good on sport but bad on everything else. Soccer & tennis are my huge interests and developing an interest in the NBA, since it seems to happen every night. Problem with making long-term political bets is that the event (e.g. US presidential election) are so far ahead of time, your money is tied up for a long time...you obviously lose the value when it gets closer to the event, but then you get the money quicker. Just as an example, there is a big political gambler in the UK called Mike Smithson - his most famous bet is picking Obama in 2006 to be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Odds were 50/1 at the time but...urghhh...waiting 2 years for a payout - and that assumes you pick it correctly - is too long in my books.
 
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Oh dear, Not even Labour's brightest legal mind can explain Labour's nonsensical Brexit policy which is seemingly to campaign against their own deal...

 
AlmightyBender said:
Bru you f'cked in your head. I've had to wait much longer than that at more than one Mediclinic here in Cape Town, even though it is private.

You live in a fantasy land.
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I've had nothing but exemplary service when I've had an emergency - admittedly only twice - one when I was 9-years-old and the other when I was 12, so quite a while ago.
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
I've had nothing but exemplary service when I've had an emergency - admittedly only twice - one when I was 9-years-old and the other when I was 12, so quite a while ago.
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I'm sure that's enough experience to allow yourself to be considered an expert on the issue...


:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
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