The electricity conspiracy

Moederloos said:
Well, since Sasol have now been told to "cut back or be cut off", it is only a matter of days, maybe weeks.
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I found a link to support this:

http://www.702.co.za/news/news.asp#80610
(I am not sure how the 702 page works, cache-wise, so I pasted the article below too)

Sasol says it will continue to produce and supply fuel despite cutting its demand for power.

The petro-chemical giant has agreed to Eskom's request to reduce its electricity usage during the current round of enforced rolling blackouts.

On Thursday, the utility informed five major mining houses it couldn't guarantee them power for their operations.

As a result the businesses suspended activity at most of their gold and platinum mines.

The temporary closures have sent the prices of the precious metals to record levels, while the rand has weakened against the dollar.

Sasol's Benny Mokaba says Eskom turned to them as a last resort to stabilise the power situation.
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Notice how they fail to say how MUCH fuel they will "continue to supply"?
 
alf101 said:
Look at the last 20 years, full of spikes.
Put the gold price and oil price on the same graph.
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Sure, all I'm saying is if you could guarantee a spike was coming you could make a lot of money.

Moederloos said:
Notice how they fail to say how MUCH fuel they will "continue to supply"?
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That's the key, they can't supply the same amount with less power or they'd do that all the time. Think it might affect diesel more, IIRC Sasol supplies more of SA's diesel in percentage terms than petrol.
 
Syndyre said:
That's the key, they can't supply the same amount with less power or they'd do that all the time. Think it might affect diesel more, IIRC Sasol supplies more of SA's diesel in percentage terms than petrol.
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Fill up you car(s) today ;)

This news is bound to spark panic buying - which will lead to immediate shortages.
Once that is over, expect a lull of 2-3 weeks before the REAL shortage hits.
 
Moederloos said:
Fill up you car(s) today ;)

This news is bound to spark panic buying - which will lead to immediate shortages.
Once that is over, expect a lull of 2-3 weeks before the REAL shortage hits.
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Depends how long it takes to get full power restored to Sasol I suppose. I wonder what the reserves in the country are like?
 
With so much uncertainty about our coal reserves left, South Africa has a lot of thinking to do in terms way-forward about new power stations.

Thinking seems to be that our coal reserves will last until around 2020.
 
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dlk001 said:
With so much uncertainty about our coal reserves left, South Africa has a lot of thinking to do about way ford in terms of new power stations.
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Oh please no - if they need to "think" still, we are doomed.
 
dlk001 said:
With so much uncertainty about our coal reserves left, South Africa has a lot of thinking to do in terms way-forward about new power stations.

Thinking seems to be that our coal reserves will last until around 2020.
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And after that there's nothing left? I thought we were supposed to have enough coal for 100 years or so? If that's the case then nuclear's definitely the way to go unless they want to start importing coal. Someone needs to call Areva and tell them to start building base load 5 nuke plants ASAP, for starters.
 
dlk001 said:
One of the problems is that even if we have coal, only a % of that will be going to Eskom because mines are making a killing on export market at current high export prices.
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Perhaps - but waiting for the guavamint to "think" will be the death knell.
 
dlk001 said:
One of the problems is that even if we have coal, only a % of that will be going to Eskom because mines are making a killing on export market at current high export prices.
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Donno about THIS one...If i were to be an overseas company buying coal, i'll "double check" the coal just to make sure im not being taken for a ride...
 
Syndyre said:
And after that there's nothing left? I thought we were supposed to have enough coal for 100 years or so?
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No one is really sure. They created a project Coaltech 2020 because at the time, in 1998, that was the thinking. DME says at current production rates, we have about 50 years of coal supply left.

So, it could 50 years, 100 years or much less. The reserve count could increase because there is a lot of coal stuck in pillars left which could still be mined by means of total extraction. So, the reserve base changes all the time.
 
dlk001 said:
No one is really sure. They created a project Coaltech 2020 because at the time, in 1998, that was the thinking. DME says at current production rates, we have about 50 years of coal supply left.

So, it could 50 years, 100 years or much less. The reserve count could increase because there is a lot of coal stuck in pillars left which could still be mined by means of total extraction. So, the reserve base changes all the time.
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What i know for a "fact", is that there is a coal mine close to Ladysmith that still has 35 years of coal...It was part of the Kangra group called Platberg Colliery
 
dlk001 said:
No one is really sure. They created a project Coaltech 2020 because at the time, in 1998, that was the thinking. DME says at current production rates, we have about 50 years of coal supply left.

So, it could 50 years, 100 years or much less. The reserve count could increase because there is a lot of coal stuck in pillars left which could still be mined by means of total extraction. So, the reserve base changes all the time.
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I suppose the same logic that applies to oil and other minerals applies to coal, as the reserves get less it becomes more and more expensive to mine what's left. Combine that with rising global coal prices and it makes you wonder if it'll be considered the cheap option for much longer, especially if you eventually have to factor in the price of carbon credits.
 
Robin Hood said:
What i know for a "fact", is that there is a coal mine close to Ladysmith that still has 35 years of coal...It was part of the Kangra group called Platberg Colliery
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35 years at what yield though? It could have 35 tons which'd last 35 years if you took out a ton a year. Extreme example but the same logic applies.
 
During the generator bolt episode, the second generator's refueling was delayed by 3 or so months. One wonders why in the current crisis maintenance wasn't delayed. To me this doesn't make sense, so I can only conclude that not all the information has been made public.
 
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