The End.

StrongTurd

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Here's today's doomer porn from myBB's resident uber doomer. It is a full 9 pages in length but it is truly some of the best material that I've ever encountered during my 12 years on the Internet. I would really encourage you to read it as it explains exactly why you can kiss your pension and your life savings goodbye and why your very way of life is about to come to an end. Don't worry, it's not boring at all. It tells a compelling story and almost reads like a good novel. Enjoy.

On September 18, 2008, Danny Moses came to work as usual at 6:30 a.m. Earlier that week, Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy. The day before, the Dow had fallen 449 points to its lowest level in four years. Overnight, European governments announced a ban on short-selling, but that served as faint warning for what happened next.

At the market opening in the U.S., everything—every financial asset—went into free fall. “All hell was breaking loose in a way I had never seen in my career,” Moses says. FrontPoint was net short the market, so this total collapse should have given Moses pleasure. He might have been forgiven if he stood up and cheered. After all, he’d been betting for two years that this sort of thing could happen, and now it was, more dramatically than he had ever imagined. Instead, he felt this terrifying shudder run through him. He had maybe 100 trades on, and he worked hard to keep a handle on them all. “I spent my morning trying to control all this energy and all this information,” he says, “and I lost control. I looked at the screens. I was staring into the abyss. The end. I felt this shooting pain in my head. I don’t get headaches. At first, I thought I was having an aneurysm.”

Moses stood up, wobbled, then turned to Daniel and said, “I gotta leave. Get out of here. Now.” Daniel thought about calling an ambulance but instead took Moses out for a walk.

Outside it was gorgeous, the blue sky reaching down through the tall buildings and warming the soul. Eisman was at a Goldman Sachs conference for hedge fund managers, raising capital. Moses and Daniel got him on the phone, and he left the conference and met them on the steps of St. Patrick’s Cathedral. “We just sat there,” Moses says. “Watching the people pass.”

This was what they had been waiting for: total collapse. “The investment-banking industry is f*cked,” Eisman had told me a few weeks earlier. “These guys are only beginning to understand how f*cked they are. It’s like being a Scholastic, prior to Newton. Newton comes along, and one morning you wake up: ‘Holy ****, I’m wrong!’ ” Now Lehman Brothers had vanished, Merrill had surrendered, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were just a week away from ceasing to be investment banks. The investment banks were not just f*cked; they were extinct.

Not so for hedge fund managers who had seen it coming. “As we sat there, we were weirdly calm,” Moses says. “We felt insulated from the whole market reality. It was an out-of-body experience. We just sat and watched the people pass and talked about what might happen next. How many of these people were going to lose their jobs. Who was going to rent these buildings after all the Wall Street firms collapsed.” Eisman was appalled. “Look,” he said. “I’m short. I don’t want the country to go into a depression. I just want it to f*cking deleverage.” He had tried a thousand times in a thousand ways to explain how screwed up the business was, and no one wanted to hear it. “That Wall Street has gone down because of this is justice,” he says. “They f*cked people. They built a castle to rip people off. Not once in all these years have I come across a person inside a big Wall Street firm who was having a crisis of conscience.”

The end of Wall Street
 
Those Wall Street bankers have truly created the biggest sh*t storm since the dawn of the industrial age:

The Pearl River Delta, known as the world’s factory, powered an export industry that pushed China’s annual growth rate into the double digits and provided work for migrants from interior provinces with poor farmland. But circumstances have changed quickly. The slowdown in exports contributed to the closing of at least 67,000 factories across China in the first half of the year, according to government statistics.

Yes, that's 67 THOUSAND factories that have closed during the first half of 2008. All evidence point at things being far worse for the second part of the year.
 
Another related story about Chinese industrial production:

After a recent visit to China, Nobuyuki Saji, chief economist and equity strategist for Japanese investment bank Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, issued a report warning that China could be on the verge of pushing the world into a deflationary spiral. The problem? Swelling industrial overcapacity, which threatens to undermine prices both for China's exported goods and its imports of raw materials.

He estimated that China's production is running as much as 50 per cent below capacity, as many industries that have been expanding rapidly are now being hit by slowing demand both domestically and abroad. Based on his estimates, China alone represents 7 per cent of the global supply/demand gap.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081113.RCHINA13/TPStory/Business

Holy crap!
 
meh, go and look at a graph of the JSE, FTSE, and other stock exchanges over the last 50 years. Look at the currency market graphs over the last 50 years. Look at the property market graphs over the last 50 years.

see, those up and down trends? See those years the stock exchanges posted negative growth. What happened in those years? Big scares. Notice how that always less than two years later the stock markets were running again at three times the volume?

Chill out dude. Investing is not for pu$$ies. If you are gonna do it... stick with it for the long haul. Your investment horizon is not 2 or 3 years... it should be 20 or 30 or 40 years. Relax, your stocks and investments will be fine.

Speak to a long term financial broker. Don't listen to scare-mongers.
 
meh, go and look at a graph of the JSE, FTSE, and other stock exchanges over the last 50 years. Look at the currency market graphs over the last 50 years. Look at the property market graphs over the last 50 years.

see, those up and down trends? See those years the stock exchanges posted negative growth. What happened in those years? Big scares. Notice how that always less than two years later the stock markets were running again at three times the volume?

Chill out dude. Investing is not for pu$$ies. If you are gonna do it... stick with it for the long haul. Your investment horizon is not 2 or 3 years... it should be 20 or 30 or 40 years. Relax, your stocks and investments will be fine.

Speak to a long term financial broker. Don't listen to scare-mongers.

I'm with you.:D

It seems we agree on everything except religion. :p
 
Chill out dude. Investing is not for pu$$ies. If you are gonna do it... stick with it for the long haul. Your investment horizon is not 2 or 3 years... it should be 20 or 30 or 40 years. Relax, your stocks and investments will be fine.

Speak to a long term financial broker. Don't listen to scare-mongers.

Um, I AM actually the scare monger. I can understand why you reason this way. Anyone who owns a lot of shares and "investments" would out of necessity need to try and console themselves at this point by arguing that the stock market will always grow and that one should not be rattled by short term ups and downs.

I would recommend, however, that you look at the fundamentals of what is happening here instead of having blind faith in the assumption that this is just a swing of the pendulum. Unfortunately the shocking truth is that the entire system that you grew up trusting and on which you built your future happiness is collapsing like a deck of cards. I would suggest that you cash in and try and save whatever you can right now.

I told my insurance/investment guy last year that I want to give up all my pension and annuity stuff apart from those few that offer disability and death benefits for my family. The guy almost had a heart attack! He started showing me graphs of the historic growth trends of the stock market and offered much the same arguments that you just did. I just smiled and told him to get on with it. He left me with a shocked look on his face. I didn't even try and explain myself to him as someone who has built a life and livelihood around a perpetual growth model is just not going to get it. The guy thinks I'm a nut case. :D

So anyways, I now invest in things that I believe offer the most benefit for me and my family in a world that is radically and irrevocably changing. Needless to say, the stock market does not feature in my "portfolio" at all.
 
Um, I AM actually the scare monger. I can understand why you reason this way. Anyone who owns a lot of shares and "investments" would out of necessity need to try and console themselves at this point by arguing that the stock market will always grow and that one should not be rattled by short term ups and downs.

I would recommend, however, that you look at the fundamentals of what is happening here instead of having blind faith in the assumption that this is just a swing of the pendulum. Unfortunately the shocking truth is that the entire system that you grew up trusting and on which you built your future happiness is collapsing like a deck of cards. I would suggest that you cash in and try and save whatever you can right now.

I told my insurance/investment guy last year that I want to give up all my pension and annuity stuff apart from those few that offer disability and death benefits for my family. The guy almost had a heart attack! He started showing me graphs of the historic growth trends of the stock market and offered much the same arguments that you just did. I just smiled and told him to get on with it. He left me with a shocked look on his face. I didn't even try and explain myself to him as someone who has built a life and livelihood around a perpetual growth model is just not going to get it. The guy thinks I'm a nut case. :D

So anyways, I now invest in things that I believe offer the most benefit for me and my family in a world that is radically and irrevocably changing. Needless to say, the stock market does not feature in my "portfolio" at all.

K... let's talk again in a year or two! ;)

btw... those people wanting to sell cos their stocks have lost their value... ask yourselves what would be the best time to buy stocks? When they have low value. So why are you trying to sell them?
 
all it really means is we have to change paradigms and start doing business differently, thats all...change...isn't that Obama's mantra anyway...its not over till its over imho
 
K... let's talk again in a year or two! ;)

btw... those people wanting to sell cos their stocks have lost their value... ask yourselves what would be the best time to buy stocks? When they have low value. So why are you trying to sell them?

Did you read the story?! These guys made a fortune out of selling short. They did not lose anything.

I'd love to take you up on that two year challenge provided of course that we'll still have the means do do so by then. It is by no means a foregone conclusion but let's see how things pan out. Like I've said before, I sincerely hope that I'm wrong. Alas, the script seems to be unfolding exactly like Great One prophesied in 1956. Bummer.
 
You guys should all go watch Zeitgeist, the film, so you can understand what the concept of interest is all about, and how every person on the planet is being robbed.
The "free-market" system is just not working, and it is about time that this planet switches to an economy that does not reward the kind of fatal greed that will eventually kill us all - Capitalism.

Are you sure we really, really have to have stock markets, Phenom? Why do you say this is the best system around? Best for whom? Go figure.
 
You guys should all go watch Zeitgeist, the film, so you can understand what the concept of interest is all about, and how every person on the planet is being robbed.
The "free-market" system is just not working, and it is about time that this planet switches to an economy that does not reward the kind of fatal greed that will eventually kill us all - Capitalism.

Are you sure we really, really have to have stock markets, Phenom? Why do you say this is the best system around? Best for whom? Go figure.

World had worse times before. Communism is not the answer. People advocating Communism should be shipped off to the gulag. :)

But seriously, Capitalism is the only way to go.
 
Folks, if China stops growing there's gonna be some serious problems [-]over there[/-] everywhere.

Fixed it for ya. Due to the symbiotic relationship that exists between China and the USA and the rest of the West, both suffer badly when TSHTF. SA will feel a very serious impact too.
 
Fixed it for ya. Due to the symbiotic relationship that exists between China and the USA and the rest of the West, both suffer badly when TSHTF. SA will feel a very serious impact too.

Ummm you didn't comprehend what I said. China will have civil war. Over here prices of products imported from China will go up, although I doubt by much as other Asian producers are suffering with reduced demand already. The problem is that the Chinese Communist Party is worried over issues of instability and possibly even complete political meltdown - mass unrest and as said the bad W word.

This isn't an economic problem for China as much as it is an issue of Chinese govt survival.

As Robert D. Kaplan explains in the following viewpoint, China’s long history includes periods in which the populace has revolted against a weak central government, and periods in which “warlord” regimes have ruled with an iron fist. Kaplan argues that China is currently coming out of a “warlord” phase—the government of Mao Zedong’s Communists. As the Chinese government becomes less totalitarian, Kaplan notes, its control over China’s huge population will weaken. He warns that if economic and social conditions in China worsen, civil strife could result

http://www.enotes.com/china-article/china-faces-threat-political-instability

Yu examines the reach of the Chinese state in the rural areas and the transformation of state-society relations after de-collectivization. Dr. Yu’s most recent influential research on rural instability in contemporary China has been published in China’s most prominent policy journal, Strategy and Management. His first article, which appeared in the spring issue of the journal this year, detailed organized peasant resistance in Hunan in recent years and sent shock waves around China’s political establishment. Chinese press reported that, after reading Dr. Yu’s article, President Hu Jintao called him into his office and asked for a lengthy briefing on conditions in the rural areas. In the latest issue of Strategy and Management, Dr. Yu published another controversial article that analyses the emergence of mafia states and deterioration of governance in rural areas.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail&id=665
 
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World had worse times before. Communism is not the answer. People advocating Communism should be shipped off to the gulag. :)

But seriously, Capitalism is the only way to go.

Don't get me wrong; I think communism sucks. However, it was capitalist greed that got us in this mess in the first place.

The problem with capitalism is that the very foundation of capitalism is growth. When you don't have growth, capitalism doesn't work. You need growth in order to make a profit, growth in order to earn and pay interest and growth in order to overcome inflation.

Now, all things are fine and dandy with this and everybody is happy except for one little snag: Mother nature does not believe any of this growth BS. So what happens is that one fine day your infinite growth model runs headlong into the reality of a finite resource base and all of a sudden you can no longer sustain growth.

Go and read the IEA's latest world energy outlook that was released this week. Basically we're looking at a 6% decline rate in worldwide oil reserves going forward. That means oil reserves are going to half in less than 12 years. How do you plan on maintaining growth under those conditions?

Mother earth never went to Harvard Business School but she sure does know a lot about economics!
 
I mean, when a lion catches it's prey, I've never scene mother nature tell the lion, "now, now, mr.Lion, be 'fair', and share with your fellow hyenas". No, the catch is his, the lions, and only he gets to eat it or do with it what he wants.

afaik, Mother Nature is a De Facto Capitalist.

+1

And even when there is sharing it's done within the pride, so there's some support for community based programs. But if another random lion comes to try and get a piece of the action, it's going to have another hole torn in it.
 
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