The Rand is collapsing !

PeterCH said:
Yes but if you convert now what will you think when the Rand hits 20 to the Euro? Hmmmm?
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I think it will go back into the 11.xx range next week.

By the time it goes up again to 12.xx or 13.xx, I'd already have gained heaps of interest in SA at 12-14%... much better than sitting on the money here in Europe at a measly 4%, waiting for that magic "20" you mention.

I did all my calculations, based on educated guesses... best time to convert is now and invest immediately in SA.
 
PeterCH said:
With such a weak Rand, I don't think so. I expect the Rand will go down to about 14 to the Dollar. We'll see...
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It's not so much about the Rand being weak now, it's the Dollar that's too strong. So what you are seeing in the exchange rate is because of the Dollar's issues. Mostly.

So a fairly stable Rand strength (note: fairly) mean not much impact on inflation increases.
 
Skinner said:
It's not so much about the Rand being weak now, it's the Dollar that's too strong. So what you are seeing in the exchange rate is because of the Dollar's issues. Mostly.

So a fairly stable Rand strength (note: fairly) mean not much impact on inflation increases.
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The Dollar has strengthened but it was 1:1 with the Euro, heck it was worth more than the Euro at one stage. Compare to the Canadian Dollar, the USD has not gone up by much, compare to the Pound, not up by much either. The Rand in contrast has plummeted despite the high gold price.
 
Skinner said:
It's not so much about the Rand being weak now, it's the Dollar that's too strong. So what you are seeing in the exchange rate is because of the Dollar's issues. Mostly.

So a fairly stable Rand strength (note: fairly) mean not much impact on inflation increases.
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One of two points. Dollar is not that strong, look at Euro/US, still around 1.35.

Investors is dumping the Rand like crazy, they don't even want to be in their own market ATM, what about ours?

2nd point, regardless of strong/weak Rand or strong/weak Dollar, when that exchange rate depreciate this much, we are bound to feel the pinch on imports.
Inflation is bound to rise!
 
mitchmagi said:
From what I've been told:

Any 'risky' investment is being sold off quickly by investors due to a lack of confidence in emerging markets and the fear of US recession. By selling off - they shore up their balance sheets and - ironically - are investing in US Dollar bond securities which are currently the safest option due to them being guaranteed by the US government.

So in a nutshell - they are selling off Rands ( or pesos, or rupees or other emerging market currency ) and they are buying dollars instead ( despite the fact that the US economy is the one suffering the most ) The short term dollar Treasury market is currently the 'safe haven' of choice for nervous investors.
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Gilts are also guaranteed and offer a safer haven - why the decision to go treasury bonds? There is more to this, and I will put on my tin foil hat and start digging. There are plenty other more stable investments right now, and as I pointed out earlier, SA is less of a risk than the US. The emerging market pull out comes immediately after the bailout which to an extent makes some sense, however there are better and safer returns to be found elsewhere as well. One might argue that long term, this is a better investment though, but I doubt that this is a long term move...

Syndyre said:
Its just a matter of banks minimising their risk as much as possible, its not a conspiracy orchestrated by the US government or anything.
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I disagree.

Whilst I doubt the US govt is behind it all, the chinese walls have been broken according to my contacts in the US and this was in fact orchestrated. An orchestrated move like this is very common, and in no way a conspiracy though...

Skinner said:
Inflation will come down in SA.
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The basket re-weightings will help, but as per my blog, global inflation is likely to soar following this bailout and this affects input cost of any producer. This is taken into account with the new weightings so I am curious as to what makes you so sure that input costs in SA will not be affected. PPI increase results in a CPI increase = higher inflation over the long term - we are already seeing inflation issues from the UK and IMO, the US is next.

PeterCH said:
Yes but if you convert now what will you think when the Rand hits 20 to the Euro? Hmmmm?
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Any trader knows that greed will be their downfall - this is a stupid argument. Do you trade the market at all? If you do, then for your family's sake, I hope you do not follow this warped investment principle. Looking for that extra buck will always be to your detriment - ALWAYS (trading 101 says, always leave something for someone else).

PeterCH said:
With such a weak Rand, I don't think so. I expect the Rand will go down to about 14 to the Dollar. We'll see...
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So you believe that the Rand will remain at these levels then? I agree that inflation will plateau or in fact go up over the long term, even after the re-weightings, but I base my assumption on different criteria completely.

Again, all just my opinion, but curious as to how some people come to their conclusions...
 
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Asian markets are getting pummelled this morning as well - expect the trend to continue on our market as well - this aint gonna be pretty, but there is still money to be made in anyone else's misfortune and I anticipate capitalizing on these events. It helps to be up at this time and watching what the markets are up to.

Anyone day trading CFDs, I suggest you double check your stop losses, forecast your actual leverage value and be sure about your risk percentages. One wrong view on the market could be the end of your house if you're not careful, or hedged correctly. I hope you are communicating with the equities desks somehow...:o Fkem walls...:D

And I feel sory for money managers trying to preserve their [-]bonus[/-] clients' capital...
 
Volatile markets. This is a temporary problem... You guys are lucky this is a global crisis, if this was exclusive to SA we can call in the white flags
 
Do we not need the rand to decline like it is, surely for exports this is very good for our country?

I am to clued up but is it not helping SA? or is hurting us?
 
killadoob said:
Do we not need the rand to decline like it is, surely for exports this is very good for our country?

I am to clued up but is it not helping SA? or is hurting us?
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We import a lot more than we export.
 
killadoob said:
Do we not need the rand to decline like it is, surely for exports this is very good for our country?

I am to clued up but is it not helping SA? or is hurting us?
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From what I know, yes it's good for exports but only if there is stability at this rate, if it bounces up and down exporters will just end up losing money.
 
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