The rand

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DrewChan

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So the rand is currently strengthening nicely, does anyone have a fair idea of how long this trend will last? I assume its almost impossible to tell, but as someone who may need to convert a lot of money to pounds its a nightmare.
 
Lemme just find my magic crystal meth ball real quick
 
I have it on good advice that by it will definately unless it doesn't.

This advice is offered with the best intentions with no responsibility taken

E&OE

T's&C's apply

battery not included
 
This is no time to even think of buying Sterling. Not with Brexit looming. The GBP has been pricing in the exit for some months already.
 
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Earth and Water are negative elements and yet on 12th June Mercury catches up with Venus retrograde in the Constellation Orion zone where communication and messages about currencies are abundant but with Venus retrograde one has to ask, is the Rand in it for the long haul? Or are we too stressed to be thinking straight and talking about our issues with level heads?

Put another way, wait too long, or act too soon, and all is lost. Yet act at the right time, and the rewards may be great.
 
DrewChan said:
So the rand is currently strengthening nicely, does anyone have a fair idea of how long this trend will last? I assume its almost impossible to tell, but as someone who may need to convert a lot of money to pounds its a nightmare.
Click to expand...
So your question has multiple layers...

1) where is the rand headed...

Yes it's hard to forecast an exact number, but the variables are currently visible (bar some black swans)

China
(do they continue to grow and demand resources)
(Does their current level of debt unhinge their economy)
(Does their currency continue to weaken)
S&P
(Do they downgrade us to junk?)
Zuma
(Does he survive all the scandal or do the ANC do the right thing)
Gupta
(Do they go to jail)
Inflation
(Does inflation continue to go up)
(Does us core inflation keep rising)
Interest rates
(Does the SARB Keep raising rates)
(Does the BOE hike this year)
(Does the Fed hike again this year)
Brexit
(Do they leave and cause economic chaos)
- there are more but these are the big ones to watch out for...

Now that last point is crucial for you if you wish to convert GBP...

Which brings me to the second part of your question... The answer might surprise you..

The GBP is currently very cheap on a relative basis to other major currencies due to the fears around Brexit...

989832a8b9da52db7a77e368281e3c3e.jpg


The above chart goes back 4 decades...

Ask yourself... When was the last time the pound was THIS undervalued...?

Then ask what does fair value (average price) look like?

Now ask, how much more can it fall if our greatest fears get realized?

Then ask yourself how long until it could get back to fair value and what would those drivers be that take it there?

What do you know?

Rand is strengthening Pound is weakening... Win

When should I pull the trigger?

Scale into your position... In other words swap a little this week, some more next week and so on, for as long as you deem necessary... Most of this event risk outlined above is coming after June... You have time...

The rand is currently on a good wicket, we had a twice over prescribed bond auction which gave tremendous support to the Rand... Things are looking better because the market is pricing in a leadership change and possibly another rate hike...

How long can it continue?

Who knows but at least you now have a frame of reference by which to base your decisions off of

Good luck!
 
Last edited:
Milano said:
Earth and Water are negative elements and yet on 12th June Mercury catches up with Venus retrograde in the Constellation Orion zone where communication and messages about currencies are abundant but with Venus retrograde one has to ask, is the Rand in it for the long haul? Or are we too stressed to be thinking straight and talking about our issues with level heads?

Put another way, wait too long, or act too soon, and all is lost. Yet act at the right time, and the rewards may be great.
Click to expand...

BUT, Pluto's 5th moon moved through the 3rd constellation, this screwing your theory in total. Dont feel bad, a lot of noob astronomers miss that one.
 
It's really amusing that so many jest and laugh at your request for direction, they say it's impossible to forecast price movement...

I say let them laugh...

59ad7e4ea37349b424f4e86c45f6ea16.jpg


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Ask yourself what if you drew a straight line and declared that if price stays above this line you would buy and if price fell below the line you would wait...

WAIT for price at a line lower down...
Then apply the same logic...

Think about it...

There is a price out there for everything that makes it very desirable... If you can find that price then you can win...
 
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