The SA Politics Thread Part 3

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JuliusSeizure said:
The DA was formed in 2000 after various parties including the NP and DP merged. The DA argue that the merger did not last long but most of the NP guys and former electorate stayed with DA even after it supposedly collapsed.

The reason for the NNP merger with ANC in 05 was to allow some guys like Kortbroeks etc to get jobs. It was one of convenience. The ANC probably saw benefit in recruiting those guys for some positions but it did not bring them new voters. The DA benefitted much more from absorbing the NNP.

The DP was a 2% party in reality and the absorption allowed them to become official opposition.
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Copium much there?
 
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JuliusSeizure said:
Mhhm, the DA did inherit most former NP strongholds. This is something they also aknowledge. Virtually all th ex NP strongholds went to the DA and to a lesser extent VF+.
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The DA also wins all the PFP strongholds as well though. Indeed there are some sections of SA that have never voted for the incumbent government since 1948.
 
TheChamp said:
Polls are generally rubbish, but some people really believe they are the gospel, especially when the poll say something they like, imagine all the Moonshot dreams if that poll was skewed the other way.
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Yes polling in SA is unfortunately rubbish. The polls are too infrequent and the methodology is generally not published. Polling is too expensive for media houses to carry out.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
The DA also wins all the PFP strongholds as well though...
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Yes, it wins most of the strongholds inherited mainly from the merger of the DP and NP in 2000 when the merger happened but truth be told, the PFP/DP were small fries in the political game. They were comparable to what VF+ is now.

It was the NP strongholds that helped them become official opposition.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Junk poll. DA far too low and EFF too high by a few percentage points.

E.g. their local election 2021 polling for the DA share was way off
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I'm sure you and @PrimeSteak will have your eyes light up when you see the Victory Research prediction, especially for the DA. To not hinder the joy which will unfold, I will not post the result and let you do the research.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
I'm sure you and @PrimeSteak will have your eyes light up when you see the Victory Research prediction, especially for the DA. To not hinder the joy which will unfold, I will not post the result and let you do the research.
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Don't be a scaredy cat.

I don't take IPSOS seriously since they're known for underpolling DA and over polling ANC and EFF.

For example:
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Junk poll. DA far too low and EFF too high by a few percentage points.

E.g. their local election 2021 polling for the DA share was way off

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650905772077854720
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Also, IFP at 4%... Really? I disagree. Not with the pace they're going in KZN. I'd rather say 5 - 7%.
 
By-elections 26 April

Not a very interesting set of by-elections today. Perhaps the only one of any interest will be in the Free State. Easy ANC holds in KZN and the WC as well as an easy IFP hold in KZN.

ProvinceMunicipalityWardMain Parties
Free StateDihlabeng17ANC39.7
EFF38.6
KZN
uMhlabuyalingana
19IFP54.6
ANC33.6
Mandeni15ANC68.2
IFP16.5
EFF9.0
Western CapeOverstrand5ANC56.4
LAND26.2
DA12.0
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
By-elections 26 April

Not a very interesting set of by-elections today. Perhaps the only one of any interest will be in the Free State. Easy ANC holds in KZN and the WC as well as an easy IFP hold in KZN.

ProvinceMunicipalityWardMain Parties
Free StateDihlabeng17ANC39.7
EFF38.6
KZN
uMhlabuyalingana
19IFP54.6
ANC33.6
Mandeni15ANC68.2
IFP16.5
EFF9.0
Western CapeOverstrand5ANC56.4
LAND26.2
DA12.0
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I'm curious to see how IFP will do in FS. And the same with DA in that ANC ward in WC.
 
PrimeSteak said:
I'm curious to see how IFP will do in FS. And the same with DA in that ANC ward in WC.
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Overstrand is basically Hermanus/Betty's Bay/Stanford I think, but there's that big township there which is probably where the ward is located. I actually see the LAND party (basically a very small regional party based in Hermanus) is fielding a candidate.
 
PrimeSteak said:
You know it... Mention the ANC absorbing the NNP, and the reasonable explanations come tumbling out.
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Most of the members and voters found their way to the VF+ and DA- fact. Some of the higher-ups did get jobs in the ANC- fact. Kortbroeks is High Comissioner to Australia last I heard.

Most ex NP members did not leave the DA (which was a coalition at that time) when a few of the ex-NP guys wanted out.

At least @The_Right_Honourable_Brit is mature enough to acknowledge this.
 
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