The SA Politics Thread Part 3

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JuliusSeizure said:
DA has partnered with "gangster parties" before as they did to win Cape Town and Western Cape initially.

The actual reason they arent working with PA is because they see them as a threat.
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Nope. It's because they are unreliable and untrustworthy. How can they be in an opposition pact when they actively support the ANC at the municipal level?
 
By-elections on 19 July.

Eastern Cape
Senqu - Ward 5

Strong ANC ward (70%+). Likely to hold.

Free State

Mangaung:

Ward 7
76% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

Ward 29
73% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

Ward 49
60% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

Ward 50
66% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

These by-elections can decide the fate of Bloem. Whether ANC will lose Bloem too (They currently have 50% + 1 seat) and if it could fall to the opposition. That would mean ANC has lost outright control of all metros except Buffalo City.
This would also be a test for the opposition to see how they are currently faring in FS. If ANC gets losses like they have in basically everywhere except LM and EC, then...

Western Cape

George:

Ward 27

Ward 20

Ward 16

All three wards are competitive between DA, GOOD and PBI (These okes have each sub-35% on avg). The former GOOD ward councillors walked over to the DA, so I'd tip DA to retake these wards. If they do, DA could take outright control of George.

KZN

Nkandla - Ward 2
72% strong IFP ward. IFP will most likely hold with some minor gains or losses.

Mthonjaneni - Ward 6
Super close ward. IFP lost with three votes in 2021 (44.37% to ANC's 44.42%). The IFP to take the ward resoundingly most likely.

North West

Rustenburg - Ward 11
60% strong ANC ward. EFF is in second place. Likely to hold. EFF will most likely make gains here.
 
PrimeSteak said:
By-elections on 19 July.

Eastern Cape
Senqu - Ward 5

Strong ANC ward (70%+). Likely to hold.

Free State

Mangaung:

Ward 7
76% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

Ward 29
73% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

Ward 49
60% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

Ward 50
66% strong ANC ward. Likely to hold. The likes of ASA and DA might participate here. EFF is in second place.

These by-elections can decide the fate of Bloem. Whether ANC will lose Bloem too (They currently have 50% + 1 seat) and if it could fall to the opposition. That would mean ANC has lost outright control of all metros except Buffalo City.
This would also be a test for the opposition to see how they are currently faring in FS. If ANC gets losses like they have in basically everywhere except LM and EC, then...

Western Cape

George:

Ward 27

Ward 20

Ward 16

All three wards are competitive between DA, GOOD and PBI (These okes have each sub-35% on avg). The former GOOD ward councillors walked over to the DA, so I'd tip DA to retake these wards. If they do, DA could take outright control of George.

KZN

Nkandla - Ward 2
72% strong IFP ward. IFP will most likely hold with some minor gains or losses.

Mthonjaneni - Ward 6
Super close ward. IFP lost with three votes in 2021 (44.37% to ANC's 44.42%). The IFP to take the ward resoundingly most likely.

North West

Rustenburg - Ward 11
60% strong ANC ward. EFF is in second place. Likely to hold. EFF will most likely make gains here.
Click to expand...
Calling all by-election okes:
@Priapus
@TheChamp
@The_Right_Honourable_Brit
@R13...
@ToxicBunny
@3WA
@dj2381
@wingnut771
@Enby Panda
@JuliusSeizure
 
TheChamp said:
Because the IFP is not a threat to them, they see the IFP as nothing more than their vehicle to governing Gauteng in 2024.
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Partially. Actually, more likely the agreement is far more beneficial in KZN. I believe the DA/IFP agreement in KZN is the first formal agreement in SA where parties stand aside for each other in wards. It demonstrates an act of maturity that is mostly not present in SA politics.
 
TheChamp said:
Because the IFP is not a threat to them, they see the IFP as nothing more than their vehicle to governing Gauteng in 2024.
Click to expand...

True. They and IFP are competing for different voting blocks. The people who vote DA are mostly people who would never vote IFP and vice versa.

If they were competing with IFP for the same voting blocks, they probably would have had issues with IFP corruption or its violent past.
 
PrimeSteak said:
I've asked you before, and I will ask again. Who are these "gangster parties" you refer to? ACDP, VF+, ID, PAC?
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Zille talks about it in her book. There were about 8 or so parties that made up the coalition and yes, there were accusations against the PAC of being criminals. The PAC were even more radical than the EFF but the DA worked with them.

Maybe @The_Right_Honourable_Brit can give more insight as he is DA aficionado and probably read Zille's book from cover to cover a few times.
 
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