The SA Politics Thread Part 3

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Inertia said:
Suddenly you believe that by-elections actually mean something? Convenient.
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Of course it means something, when have I ever said it doesn't mean anything? It means winning a ward.

It however doesn't mean it's a reflection of how the party is going to perform in an actual election, in that context it doesn't mean much.

I can still use your standards to judge the death of the PA though.
 
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@PrimeSteak @The_Right_Honourable_Brit

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TheChamp said:
Are they performing strongly in Gauteng according to you?
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Yes. They are winning all the by-elections they would be predicted to win in Gauteng. Action SA hardly making a dent and they retained a ward in a DA/FF marginal a few months ago.
 
TheChamp said:
Of course it means something, when have I ever said it doesn't mean anything? It means winning a ward.

It however doesn't mean it's a reflection of how the party is going to perform in an actual election, in that context it doesn't mean much.

I can still use your standards to judge the death of the PA though.
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Uhh, you clearly pointed to a correlation between by-elections and full elections in your post. Please try and keep up comrade.

"Another thing that I noticed the IFP is winning wards in better attended by elections, sometimes even more than the actual elections, that's a very sustainable wins to take towards the real elections, in other wards the turnout is poor which does not bode well for a party that thrives in poor attended elections, because I predict a very decent turnout in the national election."
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Yes. They are winning all the by-elections they would be predicted to win in Gauteng. Action SA hardly making a dent and they retained a ward in a DA/FF marginal a few months ago.
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Meaning they are winning all the wards they already had? How is that going to help the Moonshot, specially since they have grand ambition for Gauteng? Growing is the only way they are going to take the province from the ANC.
 
TheChamp said:
Meaning they are winning all the wards they already had? How is that going to help the Moonshot, specially since they have grand ambition for Gauteng? Growing is the only way they are going to take the province from the ANC.
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Well you can increase your vote share by winning the wards you already had with a greater majority than before. Of course they do need also win some marginal wards but I can't recall if Gauteng has had ANC/DA marginals. Also the DA only needs 30-35% provincially in Gauteng to win it from the ANC.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Well you can increase your vote share by winning the wards you already had with a greater majority than before. Of course they do need also win some marginal wards but I can't recall if Gauteng has had ANC/DA marginals. Also the DA only needs 30-35% provincially in Gauteng to win it from the ANC.
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Problem is that there is a ceiling to the DA's support, there is just not enough room in their strongholds to make any meaningful change to the elections, the support they need is outside of their comfort zone and so far I have never seen any indication that they are growing in that zone, the PA is taking everything that was supposed to be coming to them, where is the 30 to 35% going to come from?

If they are realistic about anything now is the time to swallow their pride and humble themselves before Gayton Mckenzie.
 
TheChamp said:
Problem is that there is a ceiling to the DA's support, there is just not enough room in their strongholds to make any meaningful change to the elections, the support they need is outside of their comfort zone and so far I have never seen any indication that they are growing in that zone, the PA is taking everything that was supposed to be coming to them, where is the 30 to 35% going to come from?

If they are realistic about anything now is the time to swallow their pride and humble themselves before Gayton Mckenzie.
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You are not taking into account the collapse of smaller parties like GOOD and Cope. I think these will be mopped up by DA and PA. There is also the likely collapse of the ANC outside of EC and FS (i.e. GP, WC, KZN). I don't see the PA eating too much into the DA support, but more into the scraps left by the ANC and smaller parties. I agree with you that the PA is likely to be a contender, but will probably become the new GOOD / Cope / etc. (e.g. an annoyance, but not a major player). Not to mention the likely underperformance of the EFF. I think the DA could push closer to 30% than 25% in the election, and this could give the moonshot a better chance.

It's definitely not a given that the ANC + EFF + ANC Lites < 50% + 1. In fact I think it's probably >50% chance that an ANC-led coalition wins given the current situation.

I think that as time goes on, the ANC will continue to hemorrhage support as they will not arrest the general decline by election time. If this loss in support goes to the Moonshot, they have a fighting chance. Will the PA be kingmakers? Maybe. I think that by 2024 SA will be so fcked that anyone choosing to keep the ANC afloat in a coalition will be committing political hara-kiri. Whole streets exploding in JHB with the mayor and premier scratching their heads will look comically benign.

Do not factor out an ANC-DA coalition as a a last ditch desperate attempt to save SA from complete ruin.
 
Inertia said:
You are not taking into account the collapse of smaller parties like GOOD and Cope. I think these will be mopped up by DA and PA.
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Not so sure about COPE, but it's true for GOOD as we've seen recently.
Inertia said:
There is also the likely collapse of the ANC outside of EC and FS (i.e. GP, WC, KZN).
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ANC has already collapsed in WC.
If they fall below 50% in KZN and GP (even 45% maybe), then they can kiss their majority goodbye. Then you haven't added in wild card provinces like NW and NC yet...
 
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