The SA Politics Thread Part 6

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ShaunSA said:
Biggest flop among the newbies will be Rise and BOSAWMMABCDEFGQR

Old flops will be ASA/EFF/Good for nothing

Not interested in the once off wonders ala ELFSA. Those were dead before take-off
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Yeah Rise and BOSA will be big flops I think. EFF won't grow much either and I wonder if they will be around for the next national elections.
 
Priapus said:
Yeah Rise and BOSA will be big flops I think. EFF won't grow much either and I wonder if they will be around for the next national elections.
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They will. Julius isn't going anywhere and he's still young

I haven't quite written off an ANC/EFF coalition. Especially if the WMC puppet is disposed off
 
ShaunSA said:
They will. Julius isn't going anywhere and he's still young

I haven't quite written off an ANC/EFF coalition. Especially if the WMC puppet is disposed off
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So the SRF daily tracking:

- ANC - 43%
- DA - 23.2.%
- MK - 11.3%
- EFF - 10.1%
- Others - 8.1%
- IFP - 4.3%

If these were the actual results - possible coalitions would be:

ANC/DA - 66.2%
ANC/MK - 54.3%
ANC/EFF - 53.1%
ANC/Others - 51.1%

IFP don't have enough to help the ANC and I am not sure they would do an ANC/Other/IFP coalition - that sounds messy.

Will be interesting to see which way this goes.

ANC/EFF is what I would bet on, I think. JuJu for DP. I think the ANC might be more open to working with the EFF over the DA.

ANC and DA would be the best bet for SA, with JP as DP perhaps.
 
Priapus said:
Will be interesting to see which way this goes.
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ANC/Others - odds are this is what will happen
ANC/EFF - less odds but not a total write-off especially if the puppet is gone. Mashy and Juju will team up
ANC/MK - uBaba's demands will be heavy. Price will be too high
ANC/DA - remote odds. Zero chance of saving anything. Will also signal death of DA

There is still a good chance the ANC sneak passed 50% and don't require a coalition. That would be best right now
 
ShaunSA said:
ANC/Others - odds are this is what will happen
ANC/EFF - less odds but not a total write-off especially if the puppet is gone. Mashy and Juju will team up
ANC/MK - uBaba's demands will be heavy. Price will be too high
ANC/DA - remote odds. Zero chance of saving anything. Will also signal death of DA

There is still a good chance the ANC sneak passed 50% and don't require a coalition. That would be best right now
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I wonder if all "others" will join. It's a very fine margin as it stands. You just need one or two to say no - than it cannot happen. So it will have to be either EFF or the DA.

I would have it in this order of most to less likley:

ANC/EFF
ANC/DA
ANC/Others
ANC/MK
 
BUDDH4 said:
Now that the elections are a week away who do you think will be the biggest flop i.e. a party that gets a lot of Media and Social media attention but will barely make an impact in terms of overall votes?

And on the opposite end which party might be a dark horse and do well despite no one paying attention to them.
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Just realised we already have the biggest flop. Njandini's Change whatsit. Poor thing was aborted by a coat hangar despite the best journalists providing it with life support

Which is also a good indication of the way Rise will go
 
Priapus said:
I wonder if all "others" will join. It's a very fine margin as it stands. You just need one or two to say no - than it cannot happen. So it will have to be either EFF or the DA.
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One or two have never been able to resist the power of the brown envelope
 
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