The SA Politics Thread Part 6

[Priapus]

This is at 60% turnout... Which is IMO one of the more likely turnouts we'll see (either that or 62%).

Wonderful for DA, would be great if that would come to pass.

I'm willing to bet it is actually NHI, since what else has ANC done recently that could've triggered that drop? And NHI is facing almost unanimous opposition except from ANC fans.

You don't think we'd get a 66% turn out or higher?

 

[Agent67]

If those results is what we end up with; not sure how a government is formed. ANC either had to choose MK or DA. As the EFF won't have enough to help them over the line.

Can't see the ANC happily choosing MK at this point given the animosity between the 2, and the EFF on a national level is questionable as well.

Then it would have to be the DA. Unless a minority government is formed.

At this point its obviously all a guessing game really.

All bets are off once the results come in.

There is less than zero % chance the DA gets over 30% let alone 35%.

As @ToxicBunny says; it's all a guessing game for now. Will have to see what happens after elections.

With those results, I'm willing to hedge ANC minority gov with conditional DA backing.

Or as a "dark horse", MPC minority government at the mercy of either ANC or MK/EFF.

P.S We all know DA breaking 30% in this election just isn't on. At max, I'd say 27%.

 

[R13...]

You don't think we'd get a 66% turn out or higher?

I think we will beat last election's turnout and that means 66+

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

Or as a "dark horse", MPC minority government at the mercy of either ANC or MK/EFF.

That's not happening. ANC would still be higher than MPC. There's no way they're handing power to whoever got less votes. And if they do, MPC would also be stupid to allow themselves to be a puppet...

 

[Agent67]

You don't think we'd get a 66% turn out or higher?

No, we'll definitely see better turnout than 2021 LGE, but I doubt it'll be higher than 2019. At max, it'll be equal to 2019 IMO.

 

[Nom Chompsky]

I think we will beat last election's turnout and that means 66+

That'd go against the trend of declining participation in every election since 1999 (I can hardly believe the turnout number in 1999 - 89.3 !!!)

 

[ToxicBunny]

That'd go against the trend of declining participation in every election since 1999 (I can hardly believe the turnout number in 1999 - 89.3 !!!)

It would go against the trend, but there has been much made of these being the most important elections since 1994, so there is heightened pressure on people to vote.

I wouldn't be surprised to see over 66%, if not even closer to 70% turnout.

 

[Priapus]

That'd go against the trend of declining participation in every election since 1999 (I can hardly believe the turnout number in 1999 - 89.3 !!!)

I'd argue there is perhaps renewed optimism - this is a historical election. The '94 elections had a big turn out at 86%

 

[R13...]

That'd go against the trend of declining participation in every election since 1999 (I can hardly believe the turnout number in 1999 - 89.3 !!!)

So, the ANC would need to lose more than 10% to fall to the 40%s. Then we need the trend to continue because the only way it turns is ANC voters going back to the polls. If the trend turns, the ANC will win a majority.

 

[Priapus]

Although all polls are caping their predictions at 66% - no one is molding for higher than that. But turn out this election is really a big unknown and hard to predict.

 

[Priapus]

So, the ANC would need to lose more than 10% to fall to the 40%s. Then we need the trend to continue because the only way it turns is ANC voters going back to the polls. If the trend turns, the ANC will win a majority.

At 66% the ANC still don't have enough for a majority. Current polling puts them at 42% with 66% turn out. That's more than 10% drop from their last result at 66% turn out.

 

[The_Mowgs]

@TheChamp
Always some Thandi or Precious

 

[Agent67]

@TheChamp
Always some Thandi or Precious

I thought it was only WMC right-wingers who defaced/removed posters...

 

[CTBP]

Ubani uMholi?

View attachment 1714491

Is that a skinny Gwede on the left before the buffet opened?

 

[konfab]

I'd argue there is perhaps renewed optimism - this is a historical election. The '94 elections had a big turn out at 86%

1994 elections were extremely sus. Only reason why there wasn't an issue was because the NP had already agreed to form a unity government regardless of the result.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Is that a skinny Gwede on the left before the buffet opened?

Nah you can even see evidence of a baby boep in that photo on that fat fsck.

 

[JuliusSeizure]

Only reason why there wasn't an issue was because the NP had already agreed to form a unity government regardless of the result.

How did the NP get 20% in 1994 when nobody voted NP?

 

[konfab]

How did the NP get 20% in 1994 when nobody voted NP?

As I said, sus elections.

 

[JuliusSeizure]

DA leader John Steenhuisen has had to fend off criticism that the party's election campaign messaging is yet again heavily focused on other parties, including the EFF and ANC.

News24 picked up internal concerns that the DA's messaging places too much emphasis on the ANC, as was the case in previous elections.

Steenhuisen defends DA strategy of featuring 12 EFF, ANC logos in own pamphlet | News24

DA leader John Steenhuisen has had to fend off criticism that the party's election campaign messaging is yet again heavily focused on other parties, including the EFF and ANC.

www.news24.com

 

[ShaunSA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793748235078746359

OT Friday vid for you all @ShaunSA

When you're 17 but look 70