The SA Politics Thread Part 6

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PrimeSteak said:
Exclusive: 44%-46% — prediction for governing party from pollster most trusted by the ANC
Two days to go to the 29 May election. We hope you are ready to vote.
Daryl Swanepoel is CEO of the Inclusive Society Institute, which analyses election polls for the ANC, among others. He is a former ANC MP and National Party member of the Gauteng Provincial Legislature. The institute is independent but shares a social democracy lens with the ANC, he says.
This is Swanepoel’s key analysis of the most recent Ipsos poll, widely believed to be the largest regular poll of voter intentions.
The ANC is likely to get 44-46% on 29 May. President Cyril Ramaphosa has said the party will win a majority, but the Social Research Foundation’s Daily Poll by director Dr Frans Cronje has found the party’s final push bump eased off at the end of last week.
MK party could finish with 8-9% of the vote.
The ANC’s energetic campaign worked to stem its losses from MK, but it did not grow support.
In KwaZulu-Natal, currently in a tight four-way race, MK could emerge as the largest party. See Queenin Masuabi’s report here.
Swanepoel predicts that Gauteng will definitely need a coalition government as ANC support has dipped well below 50%. The ANC in Gauteng told the Mail & Guardian last week that it would get 55%.
Election results will depend on how many of the country’s registered 26,7-million voters turn out to vote. Swanepoel is expecting a medium turnout of 55% of voters. A low turnout is more beneficial to the incumbent governing party, the ANC, he explained.

Even the ANC pollsters are saying they'll lose their majority...

From the DM newsletter.
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No it's not. Basically all SRF polls shows the DA doing better the lower the turnout because DA supporters are dedicated and come out regardless of the weather etc !
 
Talk of turnout is a misnomer. It's not the percentage that counts. It's about where are they turning out.

A high turnout % could benefit anyone.
 
TheChamp said:
Absolutely 90% of that guy's tweets are about other political parties.
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He also shares fake news from time to time and this has been going on for a while. He even deleted the Mashaba tweet he made today that was posted above by Mybb DA.

DA better control him or he's going to bring the party into disrepute sooner rather than later.
 
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